Century Weekly Market Update Feb. 3 - Feb. 9

Welcome to the Century Weekly Market Update! We’re excited to bring you the latest news and insights from the supply chain and logistics industry over the past week. Our weekly market update features a dedicated section on emerging industry trends and a report specifically focused on the frequency and impact of port omissions during blank sailings. These updates provide valuable insights to help supply chain decision makers navigate potential disruptions, optimize their supply chains, and stay informed about the latest industry developments.

Last week, the global container freight index decreased for the fifth week in a row to US$ 3,436. The Premier Alliance launched on February 9, China imposed tariffs on US agricultural machinery, and customs brokers are in high demand as the tariff landscape changes rapidly. Additionally, amid the US egg shortage, there were 100,000 eggs stolen in Pennsylvania.

At Century, we're committed to helping our customers stay a step ahead in these rapidly changing market conditions. Our team of experts are dedicated to providing comprehensive and timely insights to help you make informed decisions and stay competitive.

Emerging Industry Trends:?

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Changing Competitive Landscape in Deep-Sea Container Shipping

• The deep-sea container trade from Asia to North America and Europe is undergoing a competitive shift as shipping alliances adjust their market shares.
• Ocean Alliance, while still the largest player, is losing market share due to other carriers increasing capacity at a faster rate.
• Premier Alliance, despite losing Hapag-Lloyd, has managed to maintain a market share comparable to its predecessor, THE Alliance.
• Gemini Cooperation remains the smallest alliance in Transpacific trade but is only slightly behind Premier Alliance in market share on the East Coast route.
• The restructured alliances are expected to drive intense competition, forcing carriers to adapt to changing market dynamics.
• Shippers may benefit from these changes through downward pressure on freight rates as carriers compete for business.

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Alliance Transitions Call for Strategic Blanked Sailings

• Ocean carriers are implementing strategic blank sailings on the Asia-Europe route to manage the transition to new alliance networks while balancing seasonal demand fluctuations.
• The restructuring coincides with the Lunar New Year slowdown and extended voyage times around southern Africa, helping carriers adjust capacity and reposition vessels.
• The transition of services includes the launch of Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance on February 1, while Mediterranean Shipping Co. shifts from the 2M Alliance to operate independently with new partnerships.
• Significant reductions in sailings are expected, with 166,402 TEUs of capacity blanked in February, more than triple January’s level, and further void sailings anticipated in March.
• Shippers should prepare for supply chain disruptions, as service handovers are not seamless, and it is difficult to distinguish between planned capacity reductions and ongoing Red Sea diversions.
• If vessels eventually return to the Suez Canal, transit times will decrease, which could create excess capacity and put downward pressure on shipping rates.

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Trans-Pacific Capacity Expected to Dip in February, Stabilizing by March

• The restructuring of carrier alliances provides about 20% more functional capacity Y/Y in February but 8% less capacity M/M.
• Although the number of services in the eastbound trans-Pacific is increasing, capacity will decrease due to changes in service arrangements.
• A significant drop in capacity is expected in the second half of February, attributed to the Lunar New Year and gaps in service handoffs.
• Congestion at Chinese ports, particularly Shanghai and Ningbo, is worsening capacity shortages, with slowdowns affecting shipments before the Lunar New Year holiday.
• The M/M reduction in February capacity is influenced by delayed arrivals, blank sailings due to the Lunar New Year, and gaps from service changes in the alliance restructuring.
• Trans-Pacific capacity is forecast to stabilize by the second quarter, returning to normal levels around the end of March.

Weekly Blank Sailings Report:?

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Century’s Blank Sailings Report for the week of February 3rd – February 9th. Discover the latest insights on the current trend of blank sailings through the most up-to-date carrier data direct from Century.

• Last week saw a total of 885 port omissions, an 11.7% increase compared to the week prior.
• Shanghai recorded the highest amount of port omissions last week with 96, followed by Ningbo with 95 and Singapore with 55.
• Other ports with notably high omissions last week are Shekou with 44, Busan with 41, and Yantian with 38.
• Yantian saw a significant increase in blank sailings W/W, increasing by 280% from 10 to 38 blanks.
• Looking towards the coming weeks, Century’s data shows a slight decreased number of blank sailings W/W with a prediction of 875 blanks in week 7.
• Increased number of blanks during this time may be due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
• Next week’s preliminary data shows notable increases in port omissions to be expected at ports in Colombo and Ho Chi Minh City.

Port omissions data for the most frequently omitted ports during week 6 can be found in the table below:

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Our?full Blank Sailings Report for the week of February 3rd – February 9th, 2025, below provides a full list of every current scheduled port omission from Week 6 to Week 16 as of February 10th. The second tab breaks down this data into an easy-to-read table which shows port omissions by?each location per week so you can see which locations are being omitted the most and which locations are experiencing the sharpest increase in port omissions.

Century consistently strives to enhance customer satisfaction by proactively addressing challenges in the shipping process. In our commitment to securing space for our valued customers amidst ongoing carrier constraints, our dedicated operators diligently undertake additional measures. After working through meticulous analysis of Carrier Booking and the Actual Shipped Ratio, we found that our teams are currently, on average, making two carrier booking requests per container in order to help ensure our customers' cargo flows as smoothly as possible.

Click here to DOWNLOAD the full Week 6 Blank Sailings Report

Week in Review:?

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The Global Container Freight Index Decreases for the Fifth Week in a Row

• The Global Container Freight Index decreased last week, dropping 5% to US$ 3,436.
• China/East Asia to North America East Coast rates declined by only 1% W/W to US$ 6,656.
• China/East Asia to North America West Coast rates also decreased, dropping by 3% W/W to US$ 4,904.
• Almost every route saw W/W steady or declined rates.
• The only trade route that saw increased rates was the North America East Coast – North Europe route.

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SHIPS for America Act Aims to Revive US Shipbuilding but Faces Major Hurdles

• The SHIPS for America Act seeks to rebuild the US shipbuilding industry by creating a fleet of 250 privately owned, US-built, US-flagged, and US-crewed vessels for international trade.
• The US shipbuilding industry is far behind global competitors, with China producing 50.7% of the world's ships in 2023, while the US accounted for just 0.1% of global shipbuilding capacity.
• Building multipurpose vessels in the US is currently four to five times more expensive than in Asia, and operating under the US flag adds further costs, making commercial viability a challenge.
• To offset these costs, the legislation includes financial support for shipowners, but the proposed 21-year vessel lifespan is significantly shorter than industry norms, raising concerns about long-term feasibility.
• A major gap in the act is its lack of guaranteed cargo preference policies for private-sector shipments, making shipowners hesitant to invest without assurances of sustained demand.
• Existing US shipyards have limited capacity and currently focus on military and specialized vessels, meaning substantial investment is needed before large-scale commercial shipbuilding can take place.

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New Premier Alliance Launched Feb 9 After Regulatory Approval

• The US Federal Maritime Commission has approved the Premier Alliance between Ocean Network Express, HMM, and Yang Ming, which began on February 9th, 2025.
• The Premier Alliance replaces THE Alliance, which dissolved after Hapag-Lloyd joined Maersk’s new Gemini Cooperation alliance.
• The FMC conducted a 45-day review of the Premier Alliance's economic impact, receiving feedback from two unnamed industry associations.
• The new alliance will handle container trades previously managed by THE Alliance, including a slot-sharing agreement with Mediterranean Shipping Co. for Asia-Europe routes.
• In addition to Premier, other major alliance shifts in 2025 include MSC’s new network and Zim’s partnership with MSC on India-US routes.

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Chittagong Port Cargo Disruptions Cause Widespread Trade Delays

• A three-day transport strike in Chittagong, Bangladesh disrupted cargo operations, leaving 1,756 export and empty containers behind while delaying shipment schedules for 5,000 containers.
• The strike halted both export container entry and import deliveries, causing port congestion with an additional 5,000 containers of imported goods piling up.
• Garment exporters and other businesses suffered severe losses due to missed shipment deadlines, increased storage costs, and extended ship turnaround times.
• The strike, triggered by clashes over parking issues at DC Park, ended after port authorities assured workers that the site would be temporarily closed and their demands considered.
• Full cargo transport operations resumed on February 8, but port officials warn that clearing the backlog and normalizing trade flow may take up to a week.

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Trump Pauses De Minimis Repeal Amid E-Commerce Disruptions

• President Trump temporarily halted the repeal of duty-free treatment for low-cost Chinese imports to allow the Commerce Department time to adjust the order, after initial changes caused significant disruptions in customs processing and logistics.
• The sudden shift, implemented with just 48 hours' notice, led to a backlog of over a million packages at JFK Airport and forced USPS to stop accepting packages from China and Hong Kong.
• Ecommerce brands rely on de minimis rules to ship low-cost goods directly to U.S. consumers.
• The policy change, aimed at curbing fentanyl imports, faced criticism for overwhelming customs inspections and leading to unexpected duty charges for U.S. shoppers.
• The delay provides temporary relief, but future enforcement could reshape global e-commerce supply chains.

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China’s Tariffs Target US Agricultural Machinery

• China has imposed 10% tariffs on U.S. agricultural machinery, including tractors, sprayers, and harvesters, in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
• Farm equipment manufacturers such as Deere & Co. and CNH Industrial face increased challenges as lower crop prices have already reduced farmer incomes and demand for new machinery.
• The Association of Equipment Manufacturers warns that tariffs not only raise material costs but also disrupt supply chains and make U.S. products less competitive globally.
• The financial impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, with industry leaders indicating they will assess their production strategies in the coming months.
• In addition to agricultural machinery, China has also placed tariffs on crude oil, vehicles, coal, and liquefied gas.

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Customs Brokers Face Surge in Demand as Tariff Uncertainty Disrupts Supply Chains

• The rapidly changing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have caused a surge in importer anxiety, leading to an influx of inquiries to customs brokers about potential costs and ways to mitigate them.
• Customs brokers, who handle trade compliance and import documentation, are scrambling to interpret and apply new tariff rules, often without clear official guidance from the government.
• The unpredictability of tariff announcements, including last-minute pauses and sudden increases, is forcing importers to reassess financial strategies and reclassify goods to minimize costs.
• Importers accustomed to duty-free trade with Canada and Mexico now face potential cost increases, including higher credit requirements for brokers and larger surety bonds to cover new duties and fees.
• Many companies previously treated customs processes as routine, but the shifting tariff landscape has made trade compliance a critical and complex financial consideration requiring immediate attention.

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Decline in Panama Canal Ship Capacity Linked to Shifts in Trade Patterns

• Ship capacity through the Panama Canal was 10% lower between September 2024 and January 2025 compared to the 2019-22 average, with notable declines in dry bulk, LNG, and tanker transits.
• While there were no transit restrictions after September 2024, ships have not fully returned due to changes in trade patterns and transit costs.
• For example, U.S. grain exports from the West Coast have increased by 21%, contributing to fewer canal transits.
• Coal cargo remains below pre-restriction levels, with ships opting for alternative routes.
• The LNG sector has seen limited returns to the canal due to safety concerns and limited transit slots.

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Maersk Saltoro Incident Highlights Risks in Shipping High-Value Perishables

• The Maersk Saltoro, carrying 1,353 containers of high-value Chilean fruit, suffered engine failures and delays that are expected to significantly impact the product's value.
• Shippers feared that the vessel’s delay would lead to the fruit missing the crucial Chinese market during Lunar New Year, and in that case it would likely be sold at a substantial discount.
• While cargo damage due to the delay is unlikely, the fruit will not be as fresh and shippers may only be able to claim loss of potential earnings, which will be difficult to quantify.
• The situation could lead to receivers refusing to accept the fruit due to its reduced shelf life, potentially leaving Maersk to absorb the costs of the unsold cargo.
• Insurers are concerned about the growing risk and potential market price fluctuations, as delays and losses caused by timing are increasingly excluded from coverage.
• If the shipowner declares "general average," shippers could face additional financial responsibility for losses on the vessel, further complicating the situation.

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100,000 Eggs Stolen Amid U.S. Egg Shortage in Pennsylvania

• A bizarre egg heist occurred in Greencastle, Pennsylvania, where 100,000 eggs worth $40,000 were stolen from a distribution trailer on February 1st, 2025.
• Police are investigating the theft, reviewing surveillance footage, and searching for witnesses, as authorities describe the crime as highly unusual.
• U.S. egg prices had already risen to US$ 4.15 per dozen by December 2024, driven by a nationwide shortage, with further increases as high as 20% expected in 2025 due to ongoing avian flu outbreaks.

Sources:

Sea Intelligence

JOC

JOC

Freightos

JOC

JOC

tbsNews

Reuters

SupplyChainDive

WSJ

SupplyChainBrain

JOC

SupplyChainBrain