Century Weekly Market Update Feb. 10 - Feb. 16

Welcome to the Century Weekly Market Update! We’re excited to bring you the latest news and insights from the supply chain and logistics industry over the past week.

Our weekly market update features a dedicated section on emerging industry trends and a report specifically focused on the frequency and impact of port omissions during blank sailings. These updates provide valuable insights to help supply chain decision makers navigate potential disruptions, optimize their supply chains, and stay informed about the latest industry developments.

Last week, the global container freight index decreased for the sixth week in a row to US$ 3,312. US steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Brazil, and Mexico face uncertainty with potential 25% tariffs, and recent labor stoppages in Bangladesh cause severe delays at Chittagong Port. Additionally, European ports are experiencing severe congestion due to heavy export volumes from China, winter storms, and strikes in Rotterdam.

At Century, we're committed to helping our customers stay a step ahead in these rapidly changing market conditions. Our team of experts are dedicated to providing comprehensive and timely insights to help you make informed decisions and stay competitive.

Emerging Industry Trends:?

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India-US East Coast Trade Faces Severe Capacity Challenges

• Due to sailing cancellations and a rush to complete export orders before the Indian fiscal year-end, the India-US East Coast (USEC) trade is experiencing capacity issues.
• Some carriers have stopped accepting spot bookings for February from Nhava Sheva and Mundra, leading to imbalances between demand and supply.
• Forwarders report multiple vessel blankings in February for the West India-USEC trade, including CMA CGM's Indamex service and Ocean Network Express' WIN loop.
• CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd in India have confirmed temporary restrictions on spot bookings.
• Carriers have abandoned February rate hikes and anticipate March increases, with rates possibly rising by US$1,000 per container.
• Spot rates on the India-USEC trade declined to US$1,350 per FEU, marking a M/M decrease from US$1,520 in January.

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HMM Reports Robust Performance Driven by Longer Voyages and Trade Surge

• Longer voyages around southern Africa and increased China-US trade contributed to HMM’s success in 2024. This resulted in a 39% Y/Y revenue increase to US$8.05 billion, with a fivefold rise in operating profit to US$2.42 billion and a net profit of US$2.6 billion.
• HMM warned of uncertainty for 2025 due to potential changes in Red Sea transits and the impact of US import tariffs on global trade flows, which could possibly affect freight rates.
• HMM reported a 30% operating margin, which was competitive with Maersk's 24.6%, Hapag-Lloyd's 24.2%, and Ocean Network Express's 31.2%.
• The launch of HMM's FLX route in mid-2024 captured increasing demand between China and Mexico, enhancing trans-Pacific throughput and revenue. HMM also expanded its fleet with 12 new ships of 13,000 TEUs.
• The financial impact of resuming Red Sea transits could be substantial for ocean carriers. Maersk highlighted that returning to Red Sea routes could result in a break-even outcome, whereas diversions lasting the entire year might generate an EBIT of US$ 3 billion.

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US Steel and Aluminum Imports Face Uncertainty with Tariffs

• The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, leading to uncertainty for existing contracts and shipments in transit.
• In 2024, US steel imports grew by 6.7% to 21.5 million tons, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico as key suppliers.
• Canada and Mexico rely heavily on US trade, exporting 94% and 98% of their steel, respectively, to the US.
• Port Houston managed 4.5 million short tons of steel in 2024, while Port of New Orleans saw a 2% increase to 740,498 short tons.
• The impending tariffs are likely to slow down supply chains, raise costs for American businesses, and severely impact Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
• Potential tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports could raise annual costs for US customers by up to US$ 2 billion, threatening the aluminum trade.

Weekly Blank Sailings Report:?

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Century’s Blank Sailings Report for the week of February 10th – February 16th. Discover the latest insights on the current trend of blank sailings through the most up-to-date carrier data direct from Century.

• Last week saw a total of 874 port omissions, a 1.2% decrease compared to the week prior.
• Ningbo recorded the highest amount of port omissions last week with 89, followed by Shanghai with 85 and Singapore with 51.
• Other ports with notably high omissions last week are Busan with 44, Yantian with 33, and Qingdao with 32.
• Karachi and Southampton saw a significant increase in blank sailings W/W, increasing by 300% from 1 to 4 blanks.
• Looking towards the coming weeks, Century’s data shows a 8.9% decrease in currently scheduled blank sailings for week 8.
• Next week’s preliminary data shows notable increases in port omissions to be expected at ports in Bangkok and Melbourne.

Port omissions data for the most frequently omitted ports during week 7 can be found in the table below:

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Our?full Blank Sailings Report for the week of February 10th – February 16th below provides a full list of every current scheduled port omission from Week 7 to Week 17 as of February 17th. The second tab breaks down this data into an easy-to-read table which shows port omissions by?each location per week so you can see which locations are being omitted the most and which locations are experiencing the sharpest increase in port omissions.

Century consistently strives to enhance customer satisfaction by proactively addressing challenges in the shipping process. In our commitment to securing space for our valued customers amidst ongoing carrier constraints, our dedicated operators diligently undertake additional measures. After working through meticulous analysis of Carrier Booking and the Actual Shipped Ratio, we found that our teams are currently, on average, making two carrier booking requests per container in order to help ensure our customers' cargo flows as smoothly as possible.

Click here to DOWNLOAD the full Week 7 Blank Sailings Report

Week in Review:?

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Global Container Freight Index Sees Decline for 6 Consecutive Weeks

• The Global Container Freight Index continued to decrease by 4%, reaching US$3,312 last week.
• Rates from China/East Asia to North America East Coast reduced by 4% W/W to US$6,398.
• Rates from China/East Asia to North America West Coast dropped by 3% W/W to US$4,763.
• Almost every route saw steady or declining rates W/W.
• The only trade routes that saw increased rates were North America East Coast – China/East Asia, and Europe – South America West Coast.

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Evergreen Orders 24 Methanol-Fueled Ships at a Cost of US$5 Billion

• Evergreen Marine has invested US$ 5 billion in 24 methanol dual-fuel containerships, each with a capacity of 16,000 TEU, to be constructed at shipyards in South Korea and Japan.
• With its latest fleet expansion, Evergreen Marine’s total capacity will exceed 2 million TEU, positioning it ahead of Hapag-Lloyd as the fifth-largest container carrier.
• South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries will handle the construction of 16 ships for US$ 3.4 billion, while Japan’s Nihon Shipyard will be responsible for 8 ships costing US$ 1.7 billion.
• More than 100 methanol-powered ships are being built, making up 12% of the global shipbuilding order book as shipping companies shift toward alternative fuels.

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North American Railroads See Drop in Satisfaction During Peak Season

• Satisfaction with North American freight railroads dropped to 77.5% in the second half of 2024, down from 91.2% in the first half due to high import volumes in peak season.
• Despite high cargo volumes and severe weather, asset-based and non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) managed to mitigate rail congestion in early 2024.
• CSX Transportation was the top-performing intermodal railroad, while BNSF Railway had the highest overall score.
• J.B. Hunt and other asset-light and non-asset brokers received the highest ratings, with 72% of respondents rating J.B. Hunt as the best large US intermodal provider.
• Rail service challenges between September and November 2024, caused by a stronger and longer peak season, were more manageable than during the 2023 pandemic. Most bottlenecks were resolved by late November 2024.

Smaller NVOs Seek Partnerships to Overcome Capacity and Pricing Challenges

• To secure vessel space and competitive rates, smaller non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOs) are urged to combine their shipments, as direct carrier bookings are at their highest levels since April 2023.
• NVOs' share of eastbound trans-Pacific bookings declined from 48.1% in May 2024 to 45.9% in December 2024.
• Many carriers are prioritizing larger forwarders and direct shippers, leaving smaller NVOs with costly spot-rate options instead of fixed-rate contracts.
• Facing financial pressures, carriers have streamlined operations by reducing sales teams and travel budgets. They are relying on 20% of their customers for 80% of their revenue while limiting interactions with smaller NVOs.
• The evolving shipping landscape, with new alliances and tariff concerns, is prompting carriers and NVOs to rethink their business partnerships.
• The restructuring of carrier alliances raises concerns about transit delays but also presents opportunities for carriers to expand their customer base.

Terminal Congestion Challenges Operations at Port of New York and New Jersey

• Congestion at the Port of New York and New Jersey, driven by heavy import volumes, holiday schedules, and bad weather, is making it difficult for truckers to return empty containers and putting shippers at risk of incurring late fees.
• In response to ongoing terminal congestion, Hapag-Lloyd is waiving late fees and looking for extra storage sites to restore fluidity.
• Nearly two-thirds of drayage truckers consider the empty return situation at the port a crisis, with many unable to secure appointments for returning empty containers or retrieving imports.
• The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) reported an 11% Y/Y increase in import volumes for 2024, resulting in heightened congestion and extended dwell times for import containers.
• PANYNJ is working on enhancing appointment availability and road infrastructure to boost truck fluidity, with a US$ 100-per-container imbalance fee to handle empty returns.

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China Exports, Winter Storms, and Strikes Cause Severe European Port Congestion

• High volumes of exports from China in December 2024 are worsening congestion at European ports, which are already affected by winter storms and strikes. Our local teams have observed a similar situation.
• The export volume from China to North Europe in December 2024 grew by 17.6% Y/Y, achieving a record 835,000 TEUs.
• Labor strikes at Hutchison Port Delta II in Rotterdam commenced on February 9th, 2025. Although operations have resumed as of 10th February, the terminal continues to face a slowdown in operations for an indefinite period. This disruption has prompted Maersk to implement contingency measures in response.
• Severe weather in late January 2025 halted cargo handling at several key ports in Europe, exacerbating congestion issues.
• Vessel waiting times at Rotterdam have risen, with some carriers reporting delays of up to seven days and high yard utilization.
• Container ports in France are facing significant disruption as port workers are preparing to engage in multiple stoppages and strikes in late February, which will have a substantial impact on handling operations and competitiveness.

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Chittagong Port Faces Severe Delays Due to Recent Strikes

• Strikes at Chittagong Port in Bangladesh disrupted services, and the effects continued even after workers resumed their duties.
• The strike on February 4th followed?alleged attacks on transport workers, prompting strikes that halted container movements until February 7th.
• Officials predict a two-week period to clear the backlog, with 18 vessels yet to berth.
• With 37,000 TEUs of cargo now on land, the port yard has already reached 80% of its capacity.
• Departure dates for at least six ships were pushed back due to the strike, leading to a significant backlog ahead of Ramadan, an Islamic religious festival from February 28th to March 29th.
• Reduced working hours during Ramadan could heighten delays if the backlog is not resolved within the next 15 days.

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Leading Carriers of US Imports from Asia See Growth in 2024

• Cosco Shipping and OOCL retained their leading position for US imports from Asia in 2024, increasing tonnage by over 20% and market share to 16.1%.
• CMA CGM held the second position with 2.65 million TEUs, growing nearly 15%, although their market share slightly decreased to 13.9%.
• With 2.23 million TEUs and an 11.7% market share, ONE climbed to third place.
• Mediterranean Shipping Co. advanced to fourth place with a 24% increase in TEUs to 2.17 million, achieving an 11.4% market share.
• Evergreen Marine dropped to fifth place, seeing a 2.1% rise in volume to 2.05 million, but a decline in market share to 10.8%.
• The top 15 carriers collectively handled 18.8 million TEUs, driven by higher demand from new US tariffs and potential labor unrest, reflecting a 17.3% Y/Y grow.

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BCOs Must Focus on Known Factors Amid Supply Chain Challenges

• To manage supply chain risks, beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) must prioritize known factors, including anticipated volumes and price history.
• Carrier behavior has changed, with decisions now made at regional or central levels, affecting BCOs, shippers, and forwarders.
• To avoid overcapacity, carriers prefer shorter contracts with full-year premiums and exclude surcharges.
• Backhaul rate levels continue to decline, and there is doubt about new service levels showing no interest in linking pricing to performance.
• BCOs may commit to less than 100% minimum quantity commitments to safeguard against market fluctuations.
• The reopening of the Red Sea or changes in de minimis regulations could impact the currently balanced air and sea freight markets.

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Ocean Carriers Face Competitive Pressures in Choosing Alternative Fuels

• To prepare for International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) 2030 emission regulations and stricter CO2 limits, ocean carriers are under pressure to select alternative fuels, making fuel strategy a key competitive factor.
• In 2024, nearly 70% of all new ship orders, totaling 1.7 million TEU, were for vessels powered by LNG or methanol, reflecting uncertainty over fuel choices.
• Methanol was the top choice in 2023, but doubts about its availability resulted in an increase in LNG-powered vessel orders in 2024.
• The IMO is expected to introduce a carbon pricing system in 2025, aiming to reduce the cost gap between conventional fuels and greener alternatives.
• Shipowners face financial uncertainty, given that they must comply with evolving regulations for at least 20 years, increasing financial risk.
• To navigate the shift to greener energy, carriers are safeguarding fuel surcharges, preventing external factors from impacting competitiveness.

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