A ‘central bank’ put won’t save the stock market

Good morning.?Today we'll examine why the Fed's battle with rising costs bodes poorly for the stock market, and what G7 nations plan to do in response to Russia's impending debt default.

Let's get into it.?

Sign up here to receive Insider’s full 10 Things Before the Opening Bell newsletter — directly in your inbox.

1.?Central banks won't save the stock market.?In a note on Monday, Barclays analysts wrote that a central bank "put" is missing in the market as policy makers around the world battle high inflation. The bank said the investing landscape has become more complicated as investors come to terms with the idea that?monetary policies will not be enacted with the goal of staving off a sharp decline in the stock market.?

Russia's?invasion?of Ukraine has created a?"double whammy"?of lower growth prospects and surging inflation, and economists are responding accordingly with lower growth forecasts, said Barclays.?

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian,?meanwhile, warned the Fed isn't equipped to handle the inflation problem posed by the war in Ukraine. He said Americans will see another year of uncomfortably high prices, particularly in food and gas.

According to El-Erian,?the war could drive US inflation above 10%. The economist is among several pundits that have said the Fed is behind the curve in its response, and that whatever path it takes now will be potentially painful for the economy and markets.?

"Till the end of November they were calling it transitory, but also to be fair to the administration, there will be a Putin inflation component," he said.

In other news:

2. US futures are in the red. Investors are mulling the potential damage to the economy from war in Ukraine, a Covid outbreak in China and the?Federal Reserve raising rates.?Oil prices?are down 5% so far today.?Here's what's going on across the markets.?

3. Scoop up these 26 industrial stocks that are now attractive "buying opportunities," said Jefferies.?Even as rising costs and supply chain snags are spooking investors, these factors have pushed many industrial stocks down to bargain prices despite strong demand.?See the full list here.

4. This economist believes there's a 75% chance of a recession later this year even if inflation is transitory.?David Rosenberg said the economy is in trouble and the stock market is a bubble —?these six charts explain why.

5. Goldman Sachs cut its S&P 500 price target as commodity prices take a bite out of earnings. "Extremely low levels of equity market?liquidity?have amplified the impact of widespread investor selling," Goldman Sachs said.?The bank now sees a 40% chance of recession.

This is a condensed version of Insider’s 10 Things Before the Opening Bell newsletter. To see items 6-10, sign up here to receive the full newsletter in your inbox.

Plus, Insider has a wide array of industry-specific newsletters — see them all here.

And keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out?The Refresh from Insider,?a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom.?Listen here.

This newsletter was curated by Phil Rosen.

Thoughts or questions? Sound off in the comments section below.