Census in Pakistan: Why the Government is Reluctant to Reveal Real Numbers?
Census 2017: How can flawed results have any credibility? https://www.dawn.com/news/1358516/census-2017-how-can-flawed-results-have-any-credibility
The importance of conducting an accurate census in any country cannot be overstated. It provides essential data for government planning, policy development, and resource allocation. In Pakistan, however, the issue of the census has been met with significant challenges, including delays and concerns over the accuracy of reported numbers. The recently released 7th Population and Housing Census-2023 by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) puts the country's population at 241.49 million, but it raises an important question: Can these numbers be improved for better precision?
The Economic and Political Ramifications of Accurate Census Reporting
Some analysts suggest that revealing the actual population size could have far-reaching economic and political implications. One area of concern is inflation. Pakistan's inflation rate reached an all-time high of 37.97% in May 2023, and there is speculation that with more accurate population data, inflation figures could be even higher than currently reported. If the population is larger than estimated, it could impact economic indicators, potentially leading to a recalculation of key metrics like inflation, which could then rise significantly.
Inflation is typically calculated based on factors such as supply and demand, wage structures, and the availability of consumer goods. A larger population would put additional pressure on resources, which might exacerbate existing economic challenges. While some experts suggest that inflation could reach higher levels, any future projections would require thorough analysis to understand the full impact of population size on these figures.
The Role of Population Data in Economic Metrics
The relationship between population size and economic indicators is complex. Some commentators argue that if population numbers were significantly higher, the government’s current economic metrics might underrepresent the real situation. A larger population would likely increase competition for resources, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of current inflation figures and other economic metrics. However, these are speculative concerns that would require further study and official analysis to confirm their impact.
Released Census Data: A Need for Greater Accuracy?
The 7th Population and Housing Census-2023 data provides the following breakdown:
These figures seem straightforward but may not fully account for challenges in counting populations in rural or undocumented urban areas. Some experts suggest that a more precise census might reveal a population that exceeds 270 million. While this remains speculative, a more accurate population count would allow the government to plan better and allocate resources more effectively.
Professional Sectors: The Impact on Engineers and Doctors
Accurate population data is critical for planning across various professional sectors, including healthcare and engineering. Discrepancies in population size can lead to misaligned planning and resource allocation in these essential fields.
Engineering Sector: Pakistan has roughly 0.26 million engineers registered with the Pakistan Engineering Council (PEC), with 25,000 new graduates entering the field each year. However, many engineers struggle to find opportunities, and many opt to work overseas. This mismatch between the number of engineers and available jobs could be better addressed with more precise population data, allowing the government to create more targeted job creation programs.
Healthcare Sector: According to the Pakistan Medical and Dental Council (PMDC), the country has 274,994 registered doctors. On paper, this results in a ratio of 1 doctor for every 872 people, seemingly meeting the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendation of 1 doctor per 1,000 people. However, in reality, many female doctors leave the workforce after marriage, and some registered doctors work abroad. A more accurate census would provide a clearer picture of doctor availability and help address the true healthcare needs of the population.
Understanding the Reluctance to Reveal Accurate Population Numbers
Speculation around the reluctance to reveal more accurate population numbers is multifaceted. Possible concerns include:
While these concerns are understandable, it’s important to acknowledge that having accurate data is essential for future planning and addressing existing challenges.
Moving Forward: The Path to Transparency
While the economic and political concerns are valid, Pakistan’s long-term growth depends on accurate data and transparency. Addressing these challenges will require investments in technology, incentives for accurate reporting, and a commitment to gathering comprehensive census data.
Here are a few steps the government could take:
Pakistan’s future depends on the accurate collection and analysis of its population data. While revealing the real numbers may lead to short-term economic and political challenges, it will ultimately allow for better governance, improved resource allocation, and more effective long-term planning. An accurate census will enable Pakistan to address critical issues such as healthcare, employment, and inflation in a meaningful way.
By committing to transparency and planning for the future, Pakistan can position itself for sustainable growth and development, ensuring that resources are allocated fairly and professionals, like doctors and engineers, have the opportunities they need to thrive.