My Predictions for 2025

The Year of 3Ts: Turbulence, Transformation, TikTokization

2025 is shaping up to be a year defined by disruption and reinvention—a perfect storm of geopolitical instability, technological breakthroughs, and cultural shifts. From wars winding down to economies teetering, and from AI-driven revolutions to TikTok-fueled narratives, this year will demand adaptability and resilience. The world is entering a new era where chaos and opportunity go hand in hand. Here’s where I see the chess pieces moving:

My Predictions on Geopolitics: Blood, Sweat, and Ceasefires

Ukraine-Russia: The War Winds Down mid-2025, both sides will look for ways to end the conflict as economic strain and political pressure build. When Trump returns, expect a deal framed as diplomacy, letting both sides claim they won or at least they did not lose.

Middle East: A likely Gaza ceasefire might give headlines a breather, but the deeper conflict will fester. The U.S. will double down on its pro-Israel stance, and regional powers will either play along or play scared. Further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories is very likely. This may cause further terror. Meanwhile, Syria, backed by Qatar and Turkey, could surprise everyone by stitching together a functional government—expect think tanks to label it “The HTS Model” by year-end.

Populism 2.0: The Trump Effect Goes Global Call it "Make [Insert Country] Great Again." Trump-inspired movements will metastasize, winning elections from Europe to Asia. The result? Anti-globalization 2.0 and an uptick in the political drama makes Netflix thrillers look tame. Richard Reeves’ "Of Boys and Men" will hit the bestseller lists and be translated into many other world languages as societies grapple with struggling and alienated young men. Rising income inequality and unmet expectations will deepen their mental health and economic crisis—and fuel further populist flames.

My Predictions on Tech and Business: Boom, Bust, and Brain Rot

TikTok Survives—and potentially Thrives Remember Trump’s TikTok ban threats? Turns out, the platform has a “special place in his heart” (his words), so expect a deal that keeps it alive, albeit slightly bruised. This fits perfectly with the Oxford Word of the Year—"brain rot"—and politics will mirror the app’s chaotic userbase. ByteDance wins; democracy weeps.

Elon vs. Trump: ?Breakup of the Year By Q3, Musk and Trump’s bromance will implode. Musk’s empire—Tesla, SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter)—faces regulatory nightmares as Trump potentially shifts favor toward OpenAI, Meta, and Amazon. Again, this one is a brave prediction.

Banking and Real Estate: No Cushion for the Fall Inflation will punch consumers in the gut. Defaults climb, mid-sized banks wobble, and regional lenders sweat bullets. Meanwhile, the office real estate market continues its death spiral. Expect high-profile bankruptcies that make WeWork’s collapse look like a warm-up act. Moody’s estimates commercial real estate vacancies could surpass 20% in major metro areas.

GLP-1: Skinny Drugs, Fat Profits The GLP-1 weight-loss drug frenzy won’t slow down. We’re talking $100 billion markets by 2030. Lower prices and broader adoption will eat into fast-food and soda sales while boosting clothing and wellness industries.

Startup Shakeout: The Unicorn Culling Last decade was the champagne season. 2025? Hangover time. Startups will face mass closures or scramble into forced mergers. Profitability is king again. SaaS pricing models will flip, with AI-driven, usage-based billing replacing flat licenses. Expect fewer, leaner survivors.

AI: Hype Becomes Homework AI euphoria meets reality. Investors stop chasing buzzwords such as "AI Agents" and start asking, "Where’s the moat?" Only firms with real differentiation—unique workflows, proprietary data, algorithmic edge—will make the cut and create real AI use-cases call it agents or platforms.

The Big Picture: Adapt or Die

2025 will test economies, technologies, and institutions. Winners will be those who adapt, augment themselves with AI, and build resilience—what I call since 2016 becoming a Centaur. Whether it’s nations, businesses, or individuals, the playbook is the same: move fast, think big, and don’t let the chaos paralyze you.

So, buckle up. 2025 will be messy, but it’ll also be a year of reinvention. And if it’s too much to handle? There’s always TikTok.

Cenk Sidar

[email protected]

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