Cela's Weekly Insights - February 11, 2024
Welcome back, market movers! For American Football enthusiasts, today isn't just any Sunday - it's Super Bowl Sunday, a significant day not only for Taylor Swift and her fans but also for the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. So, in the spirit of Super Bowl Sunday, let’s dive into today's edition of CWI.
Entering the 5000 Club
This Friday, the S&P 500 soared above 5000 points, marking a historic milestone. This achievement is seen as a psychological barrier, reflecting the US stock market's strength while prompting some investors to proceed with caution. Currently, the S&P 500 PE Ratio stands at 27.28, up 16.6% from last year but far from December 2020’s high of 39.26. With the S&P 500 celebrating its fifth consecutive week of gains, investor sentiment, as seen in my LinkedIn polls, is overwhelmingly positive.
Turning Our Focus to Taylor Swift
Taylor Swift has captivated global attention over the past year, notably influencing economic growth through her sold-out concerts. This phenomenon has boosted various sectors, from hospitality to entertainment. Edward Jones highlighted an intriguing trend: Google searches for "recession" vs. "Taylor Swift" within the finance category show Swift’s overwhelming dominance in public interest, particularly highlighted by her connection to Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce.
Is Recession Off the Table?
As Federal Reserve policies (language) become incrementally less restrictive, fears of a hard economic downturn are diminishing. Although consumer spending may decelerate, other economic sectors might pick up, balancing out potential slowdowns. Despite favorable growth and inflation conditions, market volatility and corrections remain possibilities following substantial rallies.
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Super Bowl Indicator - A Fun Anomaly
With Super Bowl Sunday upon us, let’s touch on the light-hearted Super Bowl indicator. Coined by Leonard Koppett in 1978, it suggests a correlation between the winning team's conference and the stock market's performance. Having a 72% accuracy rate, a win by the San Francisco 49ers (NFC) could signal a prosperous year for the markets. And for a twist, combining this with the “Sell in May and go away” adage, a victory by the Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) would imply an immediate market exit - though, of course, this is said with a dose of sarcasm, emphasizing that correlation does not equal causation.
Last Week's Market Performance: A Global Overview
That's all for today, folks. For more insights, make sure to join me every weekday morning on my Podcast "Capital Markets Quickie." Tomorrow morning, we'll discuss the most important events in the week ahead.
Cheerio!
Endrit Cela The Investment Fella - #ECB #mm #411 ??
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1 年Although I strongly believe in the power of sports, I doubt any correlation between the outcome of the SB‘s champions conference. But because I am an NFC guy since four decades now, I think it’s the opposite of what you’re saying above. AFC baisse / NFC hausse. Have an entertaining bowl night! ????whatever you wanna put in yours ??