Cela's Weekly Insights - April 30, 2023

Ah, it's that delightful time of year when market gurus start to resemble a scratched vinyl record, tirelessly repeating the age-old adage, "Sell in May and go away." One can't help but wonder, where exactly do these investors vanish to, only to resurface in September? As we bid adieu to April, we can look back on a generally positive month for most indices, barring the Chinese market, which took a hit due to escalating tensions with the US.

Let's examine recent stock market history and determine if this "May to September" stretch is truly the investment wasteland that everyone claims it is. Perhaps it's time to establish a new adage, something like, "Buy in May, make profits hay?" (I'll work on that one!)

On this gorgeous Sunday, I spent a solid two hours poring over data and scrutinizing the performance of various time periods from 2010 to the present. I can almost hear you muttering, "Endrit, that's hardly a comprehensive sample!" And you'd be right, but let's not forget that Sundays are for rest and relaxation, so I stopped at 2010, with the S&P 500 as my trusty index. The chart above reveals that there were indeed years when "Sell in May" proved to be a savvy move, while other years, like 2020 and 2022, it would have left you kicking yourself.

While sayings like this have a certain charm and make for engaging conversation, it's important to remember that the stock market, much like life, is situational. We tend to crave simplicity and often fall for the allure of basing our investment strategies on ancient proverbs. However, for the average investor – who, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, only managed an annual average performance of 2.9% from 2001 to 2020 (compared to the S&P 500's 7.5% p.a. in the same period) – the safer bet is to stay fully invested, focusing on time in the market rather than attempting to time the market.

In conclusion, while it's amusing to ponder the validity of old sayings, it's essential to approach investing with a level head, a pinch of humor, and a healthy dose of skepticism. If you are interested in how I did my work, then send me an E-Mail ([email protected]) and I'll send you the spread sheet. Deal? ??

Last Week's Market Performance: A Global Overview

Last Week's Survey Results | Calender Week 17/2023

In case you missed it, last week's poll results indicated a favorable outlook for the S&P 500. Though enthusiasm was somewhat diminished from the previous week, a notable percentage of LinkedIn and Instagram users remained optimistic, with 66% (LinkedIn) and 77% (Instagram) anticipating a solid week for the index. The S&P 500 did not disappoint, concluding the week with a substantial performance of +0.87%. This positive result can be largely attributed to the strong first quarter earnings reported by leading technology companies earlier in the week.

That's all for today folks. If you've made it this far, thanks for tuning in ??.

Cheerio!

Endrit Cela The Investment Fella -?#ECB ?#mm ?#411???