Cela's Weekly Insights - April 09, 2023
Happy Easter, everyone! Welcome to this week's festive edition of my Weekly Insights, where I'll explore a variety of egg-citing (??) topics. First up, let's discuss egg prices. Across the EU, food prices in general and egg prices in particular have seen a significant increase, making Easter celebrations more expensive this year. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia have been hit the hardest. In February 2023, egg prices in the EU jumped by 31.1%, with the Czech Republic experiencing a staggering 95.1% increase compared to the previous year. This dramatic surge in prices might affect traditional Easter activities, such as egg decorating, hiding eggs, and enjoying Easter breakfast with family and friends.
Consumer prices for eggs in selected EU countries: February 2023 compared to February 2022, change in HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) in %
Moving on to oil prices, they soared on Monday as OPEC+ countries announced a supply cut of 1.16 million barrels per day. Oil prices were down 15% year-to-date earlier this year, but they've nearly made a full turnaround, ending the week at -0.92% year-to-date.
The chart of the week, however, highlights a significant decrease in container freight costs, which have dropped by over 80% from their 2021 peak. This reduction in costs should help alleviate inflation and contribute to overall economic stability. The global supply chain has been recovering from the pandemic, but the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has only added to the challenges. Additionally, it's crucial to monitor China and the US, as tensions between the two countries remain high, particularly regarding Taiwan. Despite these tensions, ongoing diplomatic talks continue, which offers hope for a peaceful resolution.
Chart of The Week | Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
To wrap up this week's insights, I'd like to share a valuable piece of advice: Quality always matters. Instead of attempting to time the market or focusing exclusively on cyclical businesses, consider pinpointing companies with moats that can withstand, what I like to call, the TIC-Test: time, inflation, and competition. These nearly irreplaceable businesses possess outstanding products and services, providing them with significant pricing power. By concentrating on quality, investors can potentially achieve greater long-term success in their portfolios.
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Last Week's Market Performance: A Global Overview
Last Week's Survey Results | Calender Week 14/2023
If you didn't catch it, last week's poll results showed a clear view on the S&P 500's weekly outlook. LinkedIn and Instagram users were quite positive, with 73% (LinkedIn) and 74% (Instagram) expecting a good week for the S&P 500. The index ended the week almost unchanged from the previous week, with a tiny loss (see performance table above) of 10 basis points.
Remember to vote here in this week's poll!
That's all for today folks. If you've made it this far, thanks for tuning in ??.
Cheerio!