Cela's Weekly Insights | 08. May 2022

Sell in May and go away, but don’t forget to celebrate Mother’s Day. That’s about as creative as I can get on this Sunday morning as I gather my thoughts about the previous week on the job. Once again, I was on the move. Once again, the stock market was very volatile. And, once again, I am here to talk about it all.

Market Performance | 29. April 2022 - 06. May 2022

Let's start off with the numbers and if you're not a fan of numbers, I think you should change that ASAP. As you can see on the chart above, it doesn't look pretty at all on the stock market right now. 10 Year US-Treasury-Yields and Brent Crude on the other hand have been performing quite well. The reason for that, I am quite sure you know, is obvious: the price of oil remains high due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and as a result of that inflation also remains high. Why? Energy! When the price of energy goes up so does just about everything else. Rising production & transportation costs ultimately lead to higher prices for consumers.

On a side note: the best way to fight inflation at the supermarket is not to hoard flour and cooking-oil, instead you should consume less. Let's be honest now, for some of us who've put on a few pounds over the past two and a half years (me), inflation is the best thing that could've happened.

A very good predictor for inflation is the bond market and by the looks of it, inflation isn't going away anytime soon. US-Treasury-Yields, therefore, have made quite the move year to date, namely +105.26%. Since 04. August 2020 (0.52) until last friday (3.12), namely +500%. However, I do believe that we've peaked as far as inflation goes, or are very close to it - but I could be wrong.

03. May 2022 | FONDSGIPFEL in Dresden

My job includes a lot of traveling, and one of my top 5 favorite cities in Germany is Dresden. But since this isn't a travel blog, I won't go into any further details as to why and what my favorite restaurants in Dresden are ??.

My team (Heiko B?hmer & Viktor Scheidt ) and I were in Dresden with our FONDSGIPFEL-Roadshow . Throughout the course of the year, we visit almost every major city in Germany and talk to our clients about the current situation on the markets and of course what we have to offer. The hot topic this year is inflation. The best way to fight inflation as an investor is to invest in quality companies that can pass on higher prices to their costumers without losing them. If you're not good at finding these companies yourself, give me a call.

04. May 2022 | Investment-Meeting [Hanau]

The next day I was back at the office in Frankfurt and later that night (on May the 4th be with you) I had a presentation in Hanau, which is only half an hour away. This wasn't just your normal presentation, because at this very moment as I was going through my slides, Jerome Powell (US-Fed Chairman), hiked the federal fund rates by 50 basis points - not too hawkish, but also not too dovish. For those of you who may not be familiar with these terms, hawkish means that the Fed is tightening its monetary policy and dovish simply means that the Fed is loosening its policy, for example, by lowering interest rates. However, in this case dovish meant a rate hike of 25 basis points, whereas, hawkish meant 75 basis points.

However, the markets reacted in a very unusual way. As soon as the interest rate decision was announced, the US-Markets reacted very positively. In particular, the NASDAQ, which usually reacts very negatively to rising interest rates, rose by 3.5 percent. On Thursday, however, reality kicked in and so the NASDAQ, as I expected, fell by 5%.

The only logical explanation, in my opinion, was that the markets reacted positively to the Fed doing something about inflation.?

05. May 2022 | Value Kompakt Recording

On Thursday it was time to put on my "TV-Presenter-Hat" for our show "Value Kompakt " ??.

Value Kompakt is a show all about Shareholder Value's (Frankfurter Fonds ) investment funds. Once a month, I talk about the performance of our funds and together with our CEO Frank Fischer and our capital market strategist Heiko B?hmer , we take a look at what exactly is moving the markets.

More important than what's moving the markets is what we're doing about it and how we've positioned our funds. That's where Frank's conclusion is particularly important. You can watch the entire video (in German) HERE .

07. May 2022 | Virtual Reality Day

I must admit, when it comes to virtual reality glasses and most virtual reality technology, I've joined the party a little late, but not too late. Some of my colleagues at work had ordered these Oculus Virtual Reality Glasses some weeks ago - for research purposes obviously. I had been meaning to try them out. I finally got around to it this weekend. To be more precise, I spent my whole Saturday visiting places around the world using YouTube's 360 Degree Videos. I even showed them to my parents. Their reaction was amazing: we went to Dubai, Tokyo, Paris, to beautiful beaches, and we even visited The Statue of Unity in India, which is the biggest statue in the world, by far.

So being the workaholic that I am, I got to work. The only thing I kept thinking about, is how I can put this technology to use for educational purposes and not only for visiting places around the world and playing virtual games. Well, I don't want to give away too much, but for those of you who have been following "Fondsgipfel-Akademie " you should definitely stay tuned!

Cheerio!

Endrit Cela The Investment Fella - #ECB #mm ??