Cela's Weekly Insights | 01. May 2022

It’s been two weeks since I posted my very first newsletter. Over 1,500 of you have already subscribed to it. Honestly, I didn’t expect to even get 100 subscribers this fast – as famous rapper Drake would say: “started from the bottom, now we’re here.” ??

Thank you, very much, and welcome back.

The first week on the job after two weeks of vacation was very eventful. If you’re wondering where I went on vacation – nowhere. I travel enough as it is, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to get to know my own four walls a bit better. I had a lot of great food, slept a lot, made a few attempts at working out, but most importantly, I spent a lot of quality time with my family. ?

The first day back to work after a long break usually consists of me going through about 2,000 E-Mails, of which only 20-30% are even relevant. However, I’ve made a habit of taking time every day, even during vacation, to sort out my E-Mails. Otherwise, I would have to lock myself up in my office for the entirety of the day and only come out to use the bathroom and grab some lunch. I had other plans. On Monday I traveled to Munich because of an exhibition fair I was attending the following day, namely MMM-Messe.

26.04.2022 | MMM-Messe in Munich

It felt good to be out in Munich again. I talked to a lot of our long-term clients, I was interviewed twice, and I caught up with Markus Koch since he just so happened to be the Keynote Speaker that day. Markus is really a great guy. I’m a big fan of anyone from any field of work who makes it their number one priority to explain things in a way that anyone can understand it. I’d like to think I’m one of those people as well.?

One of the big topics of the entire exhibition was inflation – rightfully so. I hear the price of nail polish remover has skyrocketed - that's not good! Inflation is high, the possibility of a recession is equally as high, and investors are worried. However, according to Markus and UBS, inflation is expected to drop in the upcoming months.

It is important to remember that the consumer price index, commonly known as inflation, is measured on a 12-month basis. The percentage rate of US-Inflation in March 2022 (see chart above, which is also the Chart of the Week) is measured based on the consumer price index of March 2021. So let me ask you a question: do you believe that inflation can go up another 8.5% from the level that we are at right now??Let's hope not...

26.04.2022 | Interview with Mario Lenke, Watch Enthusiast

As the day went on, I ran into Mario Lenke who is not only a financial advisor / investment analyst, but also a watch enthusiast. He has a very fun YouTube Channel called Marios Money Minutes where he talks about all kinds of watches with different functions and different price ranges, of course. I wouldn't consider myself a "watch guy", but certain watches do present good investment opportunities. Do you invest in watches? I'd love to hear from you in the comment section down below.

Mario asked me whether I wear a watch or not. As you can see in the picture above, I don't. Why's that you say? Well, I like to use my wrist to advertise myself instead of Rolex & Breitling - or maybe they just have to give me a call and we can work out a deal. You can watch the entire interview here. Thank you Mario Lenke and Maximilian Ritz, keep up the good work. Oh, and by the way, we're probably going to have Mario on our INVESTMENTBABO-Podcast soon, where he'll give us some insights about luxury watches as an investment for your portfolio.

27.04.2022 | FINANZ 2022 in Zürich

Next stop, Zürich - one of my top 10 favorite cities. I went from one exhibition to the other, namely Finanzmesse 2022. It’s always fun being in Switzerland and as far as the fair goes, well, here’s a little comparison: The last time I attended Finanzmesse (CH) was in 2020, right before the pandemic broke out. I would say there were only a handful of companies there talking about Blockchain, Cryptocurrencies and all the good stuff that will supposedly shape our future. This time around, a little more than two years later, I would say that just about half of the companies there in some shape or form were presenting their blockchain and cryptocurrency solutions. It’s not really my cup of tea, but it does make me think, whether something that everyone is talking about can really surprise on the upside as much as everyone is expecting - that is rarely ever the case by the way.

However, my colleague Heiko B?hmer held a presentation where he also spoke about the fact that not only is there a recession ahead, but we are likely already in the beginning of it. Why? In order for us to be in a technical recession we have to see two successive quarters of GDP declining. That can only be the case, at the very latest, in the fourth quarter of 2022, if GDP Growth is lower in Q2 compared to Q1 and also in Q3 compared to Q2. Here’s a link to his presentation at FINANZ 22 (in German) and also a link to my short interview with Heiko regarding recession (in German as well).

30.04.2022 | Frank and Heiko in Omaha @BRK Annual Shareholders Meeting

Usually I'm not jealous, but this happened...

Not that I'm jealous, but Frank and Heiko flew out to Nebraska to see the Oracle of Omaha himself, Warren Buffett. They attended the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway along with 20,000 other investors from all over the world. You might be asking yourself why I'm jealous that I didn't go on a 12 hour journey just to see Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger sit and talk for about 8 hours as they drink coke and snack on See's Candies. It's quite simple, Buffett is the GOAT among investors and has a track record of over 55 years to prove it. I think that even for non-financial enthusiasts that is impressive, and not to mention the fact that his company has made many people who stuck along for the ride, very wealthy. That's a guy you definitely would want to meet. Mr. Buffett, I'll see you next year! Have you ever had good German D?ner? ??

However, we do live in the age of internet and I was able to watch the live feed on CNBC. Frank and Heiko even managed to record a quick interview right after the meeting was done. You can check it out here.

That, ladies and gentlemen, concludes our program for today. I imagine you had as much fun reading as I did writing - if not, read it again! ??

Cheerio!

Endrit Cela The Investment Fella - #ECB #mm ??