CEIC Insights | US votes; UK budget; China’s debt load; Malaysia’s sales tax; Argentine steaks
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
A last-minute look at US swing states
With the US election just days away, we're revisiting our analysis of key swing states that will determine whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes President.
According to RealClearPolitics polling data available on CEIC's platform, Trump’s relative position improved in these battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – where he has an average support level of 48.5%, stable over the past month; Vice-President Harris' support, meanwhile, has slipped by almost a percentage point to 47.5% in these jurisdictions.
Nation-wide, however, Harris leads Trump by 48% to 46%. In 2016, by edging out Hillary Clinton by tiny margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump took all of those states' electors and won the presidency while losing the popular vote.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Nowcasting Britain: Stable GDP Seen as Reeves Raises Taxes and Borrowing
The UK's Labour government announced its first budget, increasing taxes, spending and borrowing. Bonds dropped in the days after this expansionary policy was announced, as traders reduced bets on more than one Bank of England Bank of England rate cut before the end of the year. The pound and most equities also fell.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer might feel confident loosening the purse strings given the economic environment is relatively favorable -- at least compared to last year's contraction. According to CEIC’s latest weekly nowcasts, real British GDP in the third quarter of calendar 2024 grew at a 0.78% year-on-year pace, slightly accelerating from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
Official figures from the Office for National Statistics are due on Nov. 14, and the BoE’s next meeting is Nov. 7.
CEIC’s proprietary model lets you “predict the present” for UK GDP – and we nowcast consumer prices as well, as bond bears watch for inflationary implications of this budget.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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China: local vs. central government borrowing and the national debt ceiling
China's recently unveiled stimulus measures have brought attention to borrowing by sub-national governments.
We've visualized the nation's debt load to break down borrowing by the central government and local administrations in the provinces. Since 2018, local governments have outpaced the national administration.
Moreover, changes in central government debt can reflect the fiscal policy stance. CEIC users can access our dashboard that tracks China’s debt limits, maturity profiles, increasing debt-to-GDP ratios and more.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Malaysia's budget: more spending, more taxes, fewer subsidies
Malaysia's latest budget will see a significant increase in spending, with more resources allocated to education, healthcare and welfare.
Amid a robust economy driven by tourism and a booming chip sector, it won't be borrowing more to do so; there will be a substantial emphasis on reducing the fiscal deficit through tax increases and strategic cuts to expensive and sometimes problematic fuel subsidies.
A key component of the plan involves revising the sales and services tax (SST). It will expand from May, covering a wider range of non-essential goods; more services will also be taxed.
We charted the revenue raised by this form of taxation. We've highlighted the period of the unpopular goods and services tax (GST), which had fewer exemptions than the SST; it lasted just three years before it was cancelled, but substantially increased government revenue. The SST returned in 2018 -- and revenues fell.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Falling Steak Consumption Amid Austerity Pushes Argentine Inflation Down
Argentina has the highest per capita beef consumption in the world. However, President Javier Milei's tough austerity measures have led Argentines to cut back on their favorite food -- and the effect is so pronounced that it's driving down the nation's infamously high inflation rate.
During the third quarter, Argentina's consumer price index (CPI) slowed from a 263% annualized rate in July to 209% in September. Prices for beef, meanwhile, saw inflation slow even more dramatically -- from 282% year-on-year in July to 152% on that basis in September.
This data comes from a consumer retail price database recently added to the CEIC platform. Users can drill down to granular detail on prices for essential goods ranging from personal-care products to bread. (For our first chart, for instance, we used the average price of four types of beef surveyed in greater Buenos Aires.)
According to the Argentinian Institute for Beef Promotion (@IPCVA), average consumption per capita fell 12% year-on-year to 46 kilograms in the first eight months of 2024. This can be linked to Milei's policies, which include significant cuts to the public sector as well as reduced subsidies for electricity and transportation.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Other News from ISI Markets
China's Stimulus Measures: Touring the massive market for local "special debt"
Special-purpose debt – a key financing tool typically used for infrastructure projects by local administrations – was a focus of China's recent stimulus package. We delve into key metrics for this bond market – including issuance trends, maturities, interest-rate composition and more. ?
Exploring profitable insights in real time with CEIC's alternative data
Bond, stock and currency markets have a well-documented history of reacting to key economic releases. But official data usually arrives with a delay of weeks or more.?What if these same predictive relationships could be uncovered in alternative, more timely data streams?
We invite you to read the following selection of case studies, which examine the alternative data streams that can give you an edge on market-moving economic relationships.?
Join Us in London!
CEIC and EPFR Market Insights Live
Meet the EPFR and CEIC teams and enjoy an informative panel discussion on the impact, or not, of the recent elections, the China Stimulus package and short term and long term risks to the US$.?
We are fortunate to have industry experts to provide critical thoughts on Equities, Fixed Income, FX and Emerging Markets including:
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