CEIC Insights | US regions; Japanese yen; Brazil property; Thai personal debts; China LNG
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Regional America: which US states might be in recession?
The US economy has defied predictions that it would be in a recession by now. But economic resilience is not uniform from coast to coast.
Using the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes, which assess labor indicators to get a localized breakdown of the US economy, we can see that 41 of 50 US states are posting economic growth on a three-month basis.
Using a six-month basis as a proxy, we can see that Maryland, Kansas, Ohio and Rhode Island could already be in a technical recession.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Trade-weighting the surging yen as the global carry trade unwinds
The Bank of Japan’s surprise rate hike in late July sent the yen surging – and not just against the dollar.
CEIC publishes a daily trade-weighted exchange rate for the Japanese currency, which strips out the outsized effect of the dollar to gain a more holistic, global perspective. Gains against the Mexican peso and the Australian and Canadian dollars are notable.
Our daily publication of this exchange rate (also known as “NEER”) compares with the monthly frequency of this calculation from the Bank for International Settlements.
Japan’s rate hike and rising currency disrupted global markets recently by interrupting the “carry trade,” which saw investors borrow cheaply in depreciating yen to fund riskier, higher-return investments.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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While Brazil ponders inflation, the housing market is soaring
Brazil's real-estate market is on the upswing – another indicator of the nation's hot economy. This could be stirring concern among Brazil's central bankers, who have already stuck a hawkish tone amid stubborn inflation and a sinking currency.
The number of properties sold in the 12 months through May surpassed 183,000, setting a record.
CEIC also provides the “FipeZap” house-price index, which is compiled by a prestigious economic institute (FIPE). This is published more quickly than industry figures on home sales. It’s showing price increases are accelerating to a nine-year high.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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领英推荐
Personal debts in Thailand are a drag
Thailand’s household debt is the highest among ASEAN nations, presenting another burden for a beleaguered economy. We can illustrate this drag by charting the correlation between individual debt burdens and motor-vehicle registrations. As credit growth slowed – and, lately, has fallen into contraction, indicating consumers are having to reduce their debt burdens – big-ticket purchases like cars are being deferred.
The central bank has raised interest rates less than its ASEAN peers in the face of this weakness; Thailand is also considering a “digital wallet” stimulus package.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Examining China's LNG demand and its suppliers
In 2023, China surpassed Japan to once again became the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The nation has been connecting more households to its gas grid to lessen dependence on coal.
China also tends to stabilize domestic prices by buying more gas on the international spot market when prices are cheap, and buying less gas and releasing reserves from storage when gas is expensive (as it was in 2022).
LNG imports from different markets fluctuate month-to month, but Australia is almost always China’s biggest supplier, with Qatar as a distant no. 2.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Other News from ISI Markets
Macroeconomics and the financial markets are linked at a moment of turmoil
Japan’s surprise rate hike rocked global markets this summer. Combined with unexpectedly weak US data, markets swooned. We invite you to explore the latest chart pack from CEIC Data and EPFR which examines the markets' summer swoon from all angles. Fund flows offer insights into cryptocurrencies, and show evidence that investors are "buying the dip" in US tech stocks. More rate cuts are expected from the Fed. And our proprietary, machine-learning economic nowcasts are reacting in real time.
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The Outlook on ASEAN Macroeconomics and Trends Amidst the Reshaping of the Supply Chain
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