CEIC Insights | US port strike; DAX earnings; Indonesia rate cut; India PMI; Brazil deforestation
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Monitoring US ports as dockworkers' strike threatens to rekindle inflation
Potentially inflationary supply-chain disruptions have returned to the US after dockworkers went on strike. To keep an eye on how this dispute might impact the local and global economy, CEIC users can monitor high-frequency data sourced by @MarineTraffic for real-time insights.
Five key ports were hit by the strikes: New York, Houston, Norfolk, Charleston and Savannah. These are not just domestically prominent, but have global trade importance; @Lloyd's List includes them in its Top 100 container ports. Meanwhile, expect West Coast docks in cities like Seattle (which aren’t subject to the strike) to get even busier.
This year has been notably robust year for port activity -- and, by extension, US trade. If the strike spurs a rebound in inflation, will there be implications for the Fed’s dovish turn?
Marine Traffic offers daily data for the Lloyd's 100 and tracks weekly congestion data for 3,000 ports in more than 200 countries.
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DAX strength belies Germany’s tough corporate earnings environment
the Frankfurt exchange (part of @Deutsche Boerse). Aggregate earnings from all traded companies declined in the first half -- the first time that has happened since 2021. This coexisted with a healthy performance by the DAX index of blue-chip equities; higher interest rates (and takeover speculation) have helped financial-services stocks, which have different dynamics to manufacturers and exporters.
CEIC users can tap our partnership with @Now-Casting Economics to “predict the present” for the German economy, weeks before the official data. Their nowcast suggests a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction for Q3, which means the country will be in technical recession.
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Brazil's tree farms thrive as Amazon deforestation recedes
With Brazil remaining under international pressure to preserve the Amazon rainforest, Latin America's largest economy is making progress developing a forestry industry that does not rely on cutting down old-growth trees.
The latest forestry survey data available on CEIC's platform shows that Brazil set another record high last year in the production of wood logs from planted trees. At the same time, the annual deforestation rate receded.
From January to July, output from the pulp and paper sector rose by almost 5%. (Brazil is the world's leading exporter of pulp, with its exports doubling over the past decade.) Production – and future growth – is primarily concentrated in the south, far from the Amazonian states in the northeast.
Meanwhile, greater oversight by the federal government has helped reduce deforestation. President Lula's government has targeted illegal wood extraction, mining, agriculture and livestock farming in protected areas.
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领英推荐
India’s manufacturing slowdown reflects economic headwinds
After years of strong growth, India's economy is slowing. While the manufacturing and services sectors are still expanding, key measures of executive sentiment in these industries have steadily slipped from early 2024 highs.
CEIC users can track the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and other indicators by using our India Economy Overview dashboard. Manufacturing PMI dropped in September, and the services PMI decline was even steeper.
Meanwhile, the government's Infrastructure Industries Index, which tracks key heavy industries, sharply deteriorated from July to August. Exports have also been weakening for several months. Even India's successful electronics cluster had a relatively downbeat August.
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Indonesia's U-turn to rate cuts in 2024 as rupiah rebounds
Like Western economies, the ASEAN nations are embarking upon monetary easing as growth decelerates and inflation moderates. First to cut was the Philippines. Next came Indonesia, the region’s largest economy -- an interesting case because of the surprise rate hike implemented earlier this year.
The @Central Bank of Indonesia has a dual mandate that includes stabilizing the currency, which explains the 180-degree turn over the course of 2024. A weak rupiah tends to import inflation, and the central bank was worried about this when it hiked in April.
Today, the rupiah has rebounded, headline inflation remains below the central bank’s target, and the US Federal Reserve has turned dovish. Furthermore, the Indonesian economy has deteriorated: manufacturing PMI worsened sharply, starting in April.
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Other News from ISI Markets
2025 South Korea Economic Outlook
We invite you to join us at our South Korea 2025 Economic Outlook event on October 29 in Seoul. We will offer expert analysis and forward-looking perspectives on these issues, tapping the power of CEIC’s machine learning-driven economic nowcasts alongside EPFR’s global fund-flow insights.
2025 Japan Economic Outlook
On?October 31, ISI Markets will host the?2025 Japan Economic Outlook?event in Tokyo, bringing together business and finance leaders to discuss Japan's post-pandemic recovery, growth, and key trends affecting global businesses and investors. CEIC’s machine learning-driven economic nowcasts will be featured alongside EPFR’s global fund-flow insights.
China Stimulus Measures: Touring the economy in charts
China’s stimulus package aims to shore up a beleaguered property market and boost the economy with lower borrowing costs.
CEIC’s trusted global leadership in macroeconomic data – and our extensive local expertise and heritage in China – allow us to examine this policy from all angles.
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