CEIC Insights | US nowcasts; Europe’s election; Brazilian real; Chinese trade; Indian agriculture
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Nowcast: US industrial production stagnates while retail sales stay robust
US industrial production is likely to show stagnation (but not a decline) for May; meanwhile, the American consumer remains robust, according to CEIC’s latest nowcasts. These predictions suggest the mixed picture in the economy has not been pessimistic enough for Chairman Powell to ease off in the battle against inflation. Following its June 11-12 meeting, the Federal Reserve Board offered few hints that it was prepared to start lowering interest rates soon. The official data releases are scheduled for June 18. CEIC’s proprietary nowcasts rely on high-frequency and alternative data within a machine-learning model to deliver weekly and monthly estimates – allowing users to “predict the present.”
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An ECB cut and an election: the busy news week in the eurozone buffeted equities
CEIC has recently added equity benchmarks and other stock indicators from Exchange Data International (EDI) . Using their data, we can track how two key recent events moved markets. The first rate cut by the European Central Bank in five years sent equities higher across the eurozone. Soon thereafter, European Parliament elections saw far-right movements, especially in France and Germany, increase their influence; French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap national election in response. The next day of trading saw broad equity weakness.
EDI’s regional, sectoral and thematic indices allow you to add signals from financial markets to our world of data-driven insights. Read more about EDI’s sectoral indices on the CEIC platform: https://info.ceicdata.com/edi_chartpack
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The real suffers as funds flow out of Brazilian equities
In the wake of the devastating floods in Brazil and increasing fiscal stress, the nation’s currency has been sinking. We can gain insight into this phenomenon by tracking the fund outflow data compiled by our partners at EPFR .
According to EPFR, Brazil experienced a USD 3.1 billion net equity outflow from investment funds as of mid-June 2024. Amid devastation to farmland and surging insurance claims, stock sectors from financial services to agriculture have been declining.?Brazil is also losing share in funds allocated to Latin America as a whole, EPFR data shows.
EPFR’s fund flow data covers more than 151,000 share classes accounting for more than $52 trillion in assets. Its information on the flow of money around the world can help reveal perceptions of not just governance, but geopolitical events and natural disasters.
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Examining the China-Japan-South Korea trade triangle as free trade deal sought
China, Japan and South Korea say they want to accelerate talks on free trade. Examining the historic data, we can see that Japan and South Korea remain major trading partners for China in absolute terms – but in relative terms, they have become less important parts of China’s overall trade mix.
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In 2000, exports to and imports from Japan accounted for well over 15% of China's trade; that share has fallen by roughly two thirds in both cases. China was usually a net importer from Japan before 2022, but since then the trade flows have roughly matched.
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The sluggish agricultural productivity behind Modi’s weakened popularity with rural voters
Indian agricultural productivity has grown over the decades, but has not kept pace with other emerging markets like Bangladesh and Vietnam. This provides important context to India’s surprising election result, which saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi win fewer seats than expected in key agricultural areas.
We compared cereal yields to a human capital index from the University of Groningen. We also compared this agricultural data series to manufacturing as a percentage of GDP. (These two economic indicators are historically linked; agricultural surpluses foster investments in industrial capital.) In both cases, India’s progress has trailed that of other major economies in Asia.
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Other News from ISI Emerging Markets Group
New Chart Pack | EPFR data available via CEIC
CEIC is delighted to add data from EPFR – giving our users a complete picture of the fund flows and fund allocations driving global markets. EPFR data covers all major asset classes on a daily, weekly and monthly basis as well as monthly fund allocations by country. EPFR tracks over 150,000 traditional and alternative fund-share classes.??Take a charting tour of how CEIC's analytics and macro data can be combined with EPFR's fund flows to generate powerful insights.
Webinar Replay | Decoding economic trends in the ASEAN nations and India with CEIC Data
With their dynamic entrepreneurs, youthful populations, and expanding, urbanizing middle classes, India and the ASEAN nations of Southeast Asia are some of the world’s most exciting markets.
Revisit the discussion between Radina Koleva, Senior Economist at ISI Emerging Markets Group, and Priyanka Kishore, Director and Principal Economist at Asia Decoded that explored the power of cutting-edge CEIC data analytics to explore these fast-growing economies.
CEIC Platform Update | Version 6.2 is now available
Our latest release brings incremental enhancements to support the data-to-insight workflow. With this release, we've prioritized the simplification of the user interface with a more intuitive and user-friendly design. Our aim is to make data discovery effortless by providing guided navigation and enhancing search relevancy, enabling users to swiftly find the information you need.?
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Disclaimer: All written and electronic communication from ISI Emerging Markets Group and CEIC is for information or marketing purposes only and does not constitute or qualify as substantive research.