CEIC Insights | Polish zloty; Malaysian ringgit and fund flows; Brazil deficit; US stock survey
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Examining the Polish zloty’s strength using trade-weighted exchange rates
Poland's central bank held rates steady again, continuing its reluctance to join the eurozone in loosening monetary policy. This stance has helped boost the zloty lately – and, by trade-weighting the exchange rate, we can see how Warsaw's hawkish policy makers have helped support the currency throughout the renewed "King Dollar" environment of 2024. The nominal effective exchange rate, or NEER, allows economists to strip away the effect of the outsized strength of the dollar in global currency markets, gaining a more holistic perspective on an economy's interdependence with major trading partners. In Poland's case, its most important trade relationship by far is with the eurozone.
CEIC provides NEER for the zloty in daily frequency. This gives our users an edge, as the Bank of International Settlements calculates this figure only monthly – and weeks later.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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Tracking the impact of fund flows on Malaysia’s currency
Malaysia's ringgit has historically been known as a commodity currency, linked to prices for palm oil and hydrocarbons. However, using data from our partners at EPFR , we can see that international asset allocation to Malaysian equity funds is having a significant impact on the currency.
Our chart shows how the ringgit's strongest recent moments against the dollar lately coincide with particularly large net flows into Malaysian equities.
The EPFR datasets available on CEIC cover more than 151,000 traditional and alternative fund share classes accounting for more than $52 trillion in total assets – delivering a complete picture of institutional and retail investor flows and fund manager allocations.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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A higher tax take isn't keeping pace with Lula's spending in Brazil
Brazil's economy is picking up and the government's tax take is rising. It still isn't enough to restrain the nation's growing debt load.
Government revenue increased year-on-year for a fifth straight month in May, helped by the end of temporary tax relief on fuel prices. But the primary deficit (revenue minus non-interest expenditures) widened again, surpassing BRL 305 billion on a rolling 12-month basis.
It's a reversal of the trends a year earlier, when the government was running a substantial primary surplus. These fiscal trends shine a light on President Lula's public clash with his central bank governor, who has paused rate cuts and indicated that the fiscal expansion is at odds with inflation-fighting monetary policy.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
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领英推荐
A survey of US money managers shows enthusiasm for equities remains
We've added a new survey of US investor sentiment to the CEIC platform. It's showing that even as the tech-driven bull run continues, risk managers continue to stay invested in stocks.
The National Association of Active Investment of Active Investment Managers ( NAAIM ) polls its members to produce the Exposure Index, which reflects the proportion of portfolios allocated to stocks.
The Exposure Index stood at 85.44 for the week of June 26, little changed from the previous week. (A reading of 100 means a portfolio is fully invested in equities.) Over the longer term, higher values are associated with market peaks; lower values are correlated with bottoms.
CEIC users, access the chart here.
Not a user? Request a demo
Other News from ISI Emerging Markets Group
New Chart Pack | US Business and Consumer Surveys Data
Survey-based indicators tap the real-time experiences of consumers and businesses to analyze the US from the bottom up. There are third-party proprietary indices, which zero in on real-time market data or high-frequency indicators.?
Our latest chart pack taps these datasets to tour the US – from the Chicago Fed’s take on whether financial conditions are tight or loose to the well-known Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management.
New Webinar | ISI H2 2024 Economic Outlook
WEDNESDAY,?JULY 17TH, 3:00 PM HKT
?Join us for this ISI H2 2024 Economic Outlook event with influential leaders from across the financial service and business industry. Gain insight the global and regional economic developments, the H2 2024 economic outlook.
New Webinar | Navigating Global Markets: Insights into Türkiye's FDI Landscape and Emerging Trends
TUESDAY, July 16TH, 4:00 PM SGT
Our comprehensive overview of the complexities of Türkiye’s economy will dissect the nuances of foreign direct investment (FDI) within the wider region, spotlight key sectors ripe with opportunities, and explore the predictive power of alternative data in shaping strategic decisions.
?Join Radina Koleva, CEIC's senior economist, and Kaan Masatci, of the Turkish Investment Office to uncover the potential that Türkiye holds.
Disclaimer: All written and electronic communication from ISI Emerging Markets Group and CEIC is for information or marketing purposes only and does not constitute or qualify as substantive research.