#cdnPSE Announcements about Fall 2020

(Reprinted from Eduvation Bulletin #3. Download the full PDF report free here.)

College and university staff, faculty, students and prospective students are increasingly anxious to know what the Fall 2020 term will look like: will we be back on campus?

Institutional leaders are in a tough spot. 

The decision to allow gatherings on campus is beyond their control, in the hands of provincial health officers (PHOs). Health restrictions and social distancing limits will be imposed or lifted in real time, based on weekly infection statistics and balancing the economy with public health. COVID19 may be seasonal and may fade this summer, before a second or third wave hits this fall. No-one can predict the precise timing, intensity or duration of future campus closure orders. 

Health precautions will be onerous.

No-one expects a vaccine before 2022. Until then, campuses will need to enforce social distancing, reduce the capacity of classrooms and residences, and keep common areas like lunch rooms, gyms and possibly even lounges closed to students. Everyone entering campus will need daily screenings, monthly testing, cell phone tracking, PPE and face masks.

Alternate delivery is unpopular. 

Surveys have found more than half of students and applicants, particularly at college, dislike online courses, and up to two-thirds say they would defer their studies to avoid them. Prematurely announcing an online fall might discourage students from applying or confirming, and could drive students to another institution instead. No-one wants to be the first to abandon face-to-face instruction for the fall term, or the entire 2020-21 academic year. But we also don’t want to engage in “bait and switch,” attracting students for an on-campus experience and then abruptly switching to online again when the PHO takes matters out of our hands. 

So instead, campus leaders have been holding their breath, hedging their bets, and urging patience. 

Methodology

This paper examines the announcements made about the Fall 2020 term, by 87 higher ed institutions across Canada, as of noon on May 14 2020. The 27 colleges or polytechnics and 60 universities include representation from all provinces.  (The detailed data appear in this Eduvation Bulletin.)

55% are Still Undecided

Of the 87 institutions, 55% have not announced a decision yet: 39% have indicated they are still in the process of scenario planning and have not reached a decision, and 16% make no mention of the fall term at all on their websites. The proportion is roughly consistent for universities and colleges. As Tyndale University says, “There is not yet enough information to make a formal announcement.”

Some institutions make it clear that their hands are tied, such as Bow Valley College: “all Alberta post-secondary institutions continue to be directed by the Alberta Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Advanced Education.” Brock U says they “await direction in the coming weeks from public health leaders and others before we determine how classes will be held.” Red River College explains that course delivery in the fall will be largely directed by the PHO. Saskatchewan Polytechnic says it is participating in a provincial, sector-wide approach to planning the Fall, in consultation with public health authorities. Dalhousie says “our fall term will be largely dictated by public health protocols and the impact they have on instruction, campus operations and student mobility.”

The University of Alberta was quite early to strike a task force, start consultations, develop scenarios and publish them to the campus community, all back in April. As they explain, though, it will take time to work through the academic, research, and operational implications of each scenario. 

Bishop’s University is actually undertaking a survey of its students, to gather input into the decision-making process. 

The University of Lethbridge says it is planning for 3 scenarios (normal, blended, or primarily online) – but also will “endeavour to finish the fall term the way we launch it,” which can only mean a primarily online decision.

Waterloo says “We hope we can welcome you to campus in person in September, but we will only do so if it’s safe to do so.” Queen’s admits that “Our hope, of course, is that operations will resume as normal, but this is not realistic.” 

The undecided institutions are particularly concentrated in AB (82%), where 6 of 11 institutions have indicated they are still deciding about the fall. All 3 institutions in NB (100%) have indicated that they are still planning. In ON (65%), 4 colleges and 13 universities are consulting and determining the best plan. Bicameral governance and the need for extensive consultation is certainly part of the complexity of university planning, but it is also striking that the institutions saying nothing so far include the largest (University of Toronto) and the much smaller Nipissing University. 

Just 6% are Optimists

Very few institutions have publicly declared that they are planning for a fall term on-campus: just 6% of institutions overall. The requirements of physical distancing, testing and tracing, disinfecting and other precautions will almost certainly be onerous, and this is the option least within the institution’s control, since the PHO could shut classes down at any point in the term. The capacity of classrooms, residence halls and the entire campus will be significantly reduced. 

Colleges, which depend upon hands-on applied classrooms, are much more likely to take this stance: 11% of colleges and just 3% of universities have done so. These institutions include a religious university (Redeemer in Ontario), colleges in more remote regions (Holland College in PEI, Cambrian College in Sudbury, or College of the Rockies in BC), and St Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia. Some of the institutions in this category may have little experience with online delivery, or depend upon residential and ancillary revenues too much to contemplate closing the campus. 

Holland College simply says, optimistically, “It is our hope that all preventative measures now in place will not be required by September.”

COTR says “at this time, we do not anticipate that our fall 2020 semester will be impacted.” 

Redeemer says quite emphatically, “at this point in time, we are planning to begin the new academic year this fall, in person and on campus despite many uncertainties. In the event that being on campus is not possible, we are making contingency plans.” 

StFX says “we are preparing for classes to restart in September, on-campus and in-person” – but also indicated on May 8 that it is doing scenario planning, and promises updates “in the months ahead.” (This suggests it may be planning a final decision as late as July!)

Cambrian says “we are planning for a full resumption of classes and campus activities for September,” but if not, “we will be offering our programs online.” 

Laurentian says it is “encouraged by the very low number of active COVID19 cases in the region,” and hopes “to begin to welcome our community back to campus in the near future.”

Lakehead University hasn’t yet decided, but optimism clearly lurks right beneath the surface: they are “keenly focused on welcoming new and returning students to Lakehead this fall,” but they “will maximize the continuity of our operations” (which is code for online delivery). 

26% will be Predominantly Online

The remaining 39% of institutions have either announced a purely online/remote/distance/alternate delivery term for Fall, or a blended model (see next section). Assigning institutions to one category or the other is an exercise in ambiguity, as you can see from the detailed quotations from their announcements; there isn’t much clear distinction between “predominantly online,” “nearly all” online, or “larger classes online,” and “a restricted face-to-face model,” “including a distance-learning option,” or “face-to-face course delivery where possible.” 

It looks as though two-thirds of these institutions (26% of the total) have announced online, albeit often subject to augmentation with on-campus experiential learning opportunities should the PHO permit. Twice as many universities (32%) as colleges (15%) have announced online terms, since again colleges have more programs that require in-person labs or assessments. (Of course, this decision was comparatively simple for Royal Roads and Athabasca University, who already deliver their programs primarily online.) Conestoga College goes so far as to say that remote instruction may have to continue for 2 or 3 semesters, not just the fall term. 

Several others clearly hope that campus delivery can resume by January 2021: UFV, uManitoba and CNA are extending their Fall term into January to permit in-person requirements to be done after the holiday break. 

Regionally, there may be divergent reasons why these institutions have declared themselves completely online. Quebec has been hardest hit by COVID19, particularly in Montréal, so it isn’t surprising that 75% of the institutions we’re watching there have decisively announced they will be online this fall. The universities in Saskatchewan (67% online) and perhaps also NL (50% online) may be opting for online delivery to provide certainty for international students. And the coordinated response across BC (47% online), led by the charismatic and popular Dr Bonnie Henry, may make it easier to take the extreme position there. 

13% are Hedging their Bets

On the other hand, the apparent compromise position (although one that maintains maximal ambiguity and does little to dispel uncertainty) is announcing a blended, hybrid, multi-modal or otherwise flexible combination of online/alternate delivery with on-campus, in-person labs and experiential learning (as always, though, only as permitted by the PHO). Announcing blended delivery reassures international students or those hoping for a residential experience, retains some appeal of the institution’s campus or reputation for extracurriculars, and also reassures college students seeking hands-on training. It nonetheless recognizes the inevitability that large classes will likely be prohibited and necessarily delivered online, and obliges instructors to start preparing for online delivery.

Trinity Western U came out comparatively early (May 6) announcing a “bold new multi-access approach” that would allow students to choose dynamically (like Hyflex delivery). Of course, public health restrictions could easily make the plan moot and push all delivery online. 

Mohawk College also announced comparatively early (May 8) that it would be using a combination of remote/virtual learning for lectures, and in-person delivery for labs, simulations, and assessments (subject to the PHO). Mohawk announced years ago that it was working to migrate all its programs to blended delivery, so the campus culture might well have been primed for such a decision.

VIU has announced a “hybrid program delivery model” including “robust online technologies for most classes” and “reimagined experiential learning opportunities” (as permitted by the PHO). 

UBC has been fairly specific, that larger classes will be conducted online while “selected smaller classes” will be conducted face-to-face (subject to social distancing and PHO requirements). 

Likewise York says “larger classes will be offered through remote/online instruction and your instructors are planning innovative ways to engage you actively through digital platforms. To the extent possible and with physical distancing measures in place, we are also planning to offer selected in-person smaller classes and tutorials, experiential activities such as studio and labs, and re-establish access to our research facilities.”

Fleming College took a unique approach, announcing that all courses will begin online for the month of September, and thereafter will phase into face-to-face delivery as the PHO permits. 

In all, 13% of institutions have announced a blended, hybrid, multi-modal, or otherwise flexible combination of online/alternate and on-campus in-person course delivery for the fall. Colleges are twice as likely to announce a blended approach (19%) compared to universities (10%), although again this is a fine distinction since most universities indicating an online term have indicated some on-campus components could be reintroduced, if the PHO permits. Blended institutions are disproportionately likely to be in BC (27%) or ON (18%).

College of the North Atlantic hasn’t explicitly said it will be using blended delivery. It has released a detailed Academic Plan that lists each and every program and explains whether it will be delivered fully online, partially online, or will be delayed until January 2021. 

Delaying the Inevitable?

In many ways, almost all of these announcements are variations on a theme, ambiguous promises or plans (or silence) that try to avoid discouraging potential applicants by leaving the door open to some possibility of a campus experience.

The reality is, of course, that a second pandemic wave and tightened health restrictions could make moot any decision other than a purely online term. 

Helpful Documents

Several institutions have published scenario documents or planning guidelines that could serve as models for others:

The University of Alberta has established a Fall 2020 planning group, and created a microsite including documents and reports. uAlberta

Carleton University Scenario Planning Working Group has established 9 guiding principles and a set of detailed recommendations. CUSP

The University of Guelph has shared 9 Guiding Principles. UofG

McMaster University has shared a 7-point Guiding Framework. McMaster

(For the detailed chart, download the full PDF version of Eduvation Bulletin #3. To get these updates in your inbox every morning, please subscribe to my free email, the Eduvation Insider.)

Ken Steele is Canada's leading higher ed futurist and strategic consultant, through his company Eduvation. He delivers virtual presentations and facilitates virtual retreats or workshops centred on emerging trends, enrolment management, pedagogical innovation, and strategic planning. [email protected]