CEIC Insights | Nowcasting the World: Inflation-taming success and failures; GDP and elections
Key analysis from the past seven days driven by CEIC's powerful blend of traditional and alternative economic data
Data stories of the week:
Australian inflation keeps plateauing – and the RBA is concerned
So much for the global rate-cutting cycle that once seemed certain for 2024. Inflation has been stubborn across developed markets lately, and Australia is no exception. Our nowcast is showing that CPI growth held at an above-target 3.5% year-on-year pace in April following an unwelcome acceleration in March.
The Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised its outlook for inflation and ruled out monetary easing until 2025. Official inflation figures are due on May 29.
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Brazil’s floods interrupt the disinflationary trend that had reassured central bankers
The devastating, El Nino-linked flooding in Brazil has disrupted the nation's trajectory of steady growth and falling inflation. CEIC's nowcast shows that price increases are ticking up in real time amid livestock losses and ruined crops in the nation's southern agricultural heartland.
Increasing inflation is likely to snap a seven-month slowdown streak. This has implications for the central bank, which may be constrained in its scope for rate cuts later this year.
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Mexican GDP picks up as voters prepare to judge AMLO’s party
With Mexico's election less than two weeks away, economic growth is estimated to have accelerated. According to the daily GDP nowcast CEIC sources from Now-Casting Economics, real GDP growth accelerated to a 2.2% year-on year pace in Q2 from 1.6% in the previous quarter.
We also take a tour of Mexico’s economy. Declining unemployment, a strong peso and the nearshoring boom driving manufacturing jobs all help explain why outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s successor as head of the Morena party has a strong lead in the polls.
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India set to close fiscal year with solid growth as Modi seeks re-election
As India approaches the end of a multi-week vote on whether to extend Narendra Modi’s tenure, the incumbent will be able to point to a third consecutive year of 7%-plus economic growth.
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CEIC's daily GDP nowcast projects that the nation’s economy expanded at an 8.5% year-on-year pace in January through March, accelerating from an 8.4% pace in the fiscal third quarter. (India’s fiscal year runs from April to March.)
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Indonesian inflation is easing after surprise rate hike shores up the rupiah
Indonesia's central bank recently implemented a surprise rate hike to support the rupiah. Our proprietary weekly inflation nowcast is suggesting that this move is having the desired impact of reducing price growth, as well.
CEIC's machine-learning model suggests that inflation is in a range between 2.65% and 2.75% for the month of May – down from 3% in March and April – approaching the midpoint of Bank Indonesia's target range. The currency is a key concern for Bank Indonesia as a weak rupiah (IDR) has the effect of importing inflation, especially in consumers' shopping baskets.
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Other News from ISI Emerging Markets Group
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We’ve unveiled a new set of Equity Indices sourced from Exchange Data International, which allows CEIC users to add signals from financial markets to our world of data-driven insights. We invite you to visit our latest chart pack and explore a sample of visualizations driven by EDI’s regional, sectoral and thematic indices.
Upcoming Webinar | Decoding economic trends in the ASEAN nations and India with CEIC Data
Thursday, June 13, 2024 at 4:30 PM SGT | 2 PM IST | 9:30 AM BST
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Join Radina Koleva, Senior Economist at ISI Emerging Markets Group, and Priyanka Kishore, Director and Principal Economist at Asia Decoded for an enlightening discussion that will tap the power of cutting-edge CEIC data analytics to explore these fast-growing economies.
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