CBRS, Google, the Universe, and Everything

I’ve done a few projects with GOOGLE. Amazing experiences. So fun. 

One time I was in a large conference room debating another GOOGLE person on some topic and getting nowhere. After 20 minutes or so I said, “Your position has zero commercial value! Zero ROI! Why would we do this??” He was a little puzzled, sat reflecting for a minute, and said, “Yeah. I know. So what??” 

One thing one realizes rather quickly when working at or with GOOGLE is that there are 25 projects (How many letters are there in the alphabet?) that make negative one zillion dollars and one project (Search) that makes 26 zillion dollars and pays for everyone’s SF apartments and Lambos, and enables everyone who works there to feel extra clever about their contribution to the world.

I am not trying to be pejorative. The business model works for GOOGLE. Fantastic.

But outsiders usually don’t realize this. They see GOOGLE doing something, investing in something, promoting something, and think, “WOW this is going to be YUGE!”

GOOGLE is bound to Metcalfe’s Law. More people connected more often and better means exponentially more value for GOOGLE. They put energy into anything that has any CHANCE of moving the needle towards adding eyeballs to the Internet. #loon.

#CBRS is technologically OK. Makes sense, works, etc. Kind of like a managed Wi-Fi. The problem is the business model. Just like multi-carrier small cells. There is zero incentive for the wireless mobile network operators to make CBRS work. 

You say, “We can improve service in my building!” But if all carriers are improved equally, why should the MNO invest their scarce dollars in this? What is the value to the MNO? A total of zero more added customers… Again: multi-carrier small cell. 

Where do you purchase your phones and your service? If your phone doesn’t work, who do you call? You call the carrier. When you’re dropping calls, experiencing poor QoS, poor data rates, jitter, warble, buffering, poor handovers, etc., who are you going to call? You’re going to call the brand name on your $800 phone’s SIM card. AT&T. Verizon. T-Mobile. Sprint.

The idea that EACH carrier is going to onboard into their core network a 3rd party CBRS small cell vendor stands against all history. (See picture below.) I’ve been doing this for about 25 years and I have seen the MNO model broken ONCE. That was when Apple launched the App Store for iPhone and for the first time we had 3rd party (non-carrier) apps on our phones. We got appified thanks to Steve Jobs and AT&T.

The use cases were so numerous, and so compelling, there was no way the carriers could stop this technology, this vision, although Verizon tried. I am not seeing this same momentum for CBRS – in the in-building cellular use case. It’s not a game changer, it’s a nuance. For the Private LTE use case, different story, I definitely see value.

I do not have money at stake here, CBRS win or lose. I would like to have the right technology forecast, though. If there’s anyone out there who can explain to me how CBRS will become meaningful technology in the in-building wireless space, how CBRS will solve in-building cellular coverage problems, the business models that will drive this technology forward into mass adoption, I would be forever grateful. I would be happy to be an advocate, but I can’t see it today.