A Cautionary Tale That I Am (Literally) Itching to Share

When I went to bed last Sunday night, I was totally fine.

But I woke up on Monday morning to find my entire upper body from neck to waist – front, back, sides, and arms – completely covered in an incredibly angry, itchy, painful, red rash.

Not knowing where to start scratching first, all I wanted was to jump out of my skin. And, unfortunately, over the next 24 hours, the combination of Benedryl, Cortisone cream, and Calamine lotion did little to diminish the torture.

So, on Tuesday morning, after a horrible night’s sleep, and feeling and looking even worse than the day before, my wife said, “We need to get you over to Urgent Care asap to get you a prescription for Prednisone.”

But what on Earth could have caused this extreme allergic reaction?

When any problem occurs – whether in life or in business – the natural tendency is to “rewind the tape” and "retrace your steps" to deconstruct the events directly leading up to it.

Totally fine on Sunday; a complete mess on Monday. So, what happened that day before?

In brief, we went to visit my mother in New Jersey. I laid out in the sun at her clubhouse pool, late in the day, for about 15 minutes, and then waded in the pool for about a half hour. Followed by a BBQ dinner and dessert. And that's it.

So, the possible theories, in chronological order, included:

Sunburn or sun poisoning? No, I was only exposed to the sun for about 45 minutes, around sundown. And my back was barely exposed to the sun at all. Next.

The pool water, itself? Too much chlorine, or too little? Some other chemical – or flesh-eating bacteria! – in the water? I called my mother the next day to ask if she knew of any other similar reports...but there were none that she knew of.

Was it something I ate? No, nothing unusual, and I have no known food allergies.

Poison Ivy or Poison Oak? No.

Shingles? Not based on the horrifying photos I saw on the internet. Plus I had received my double-dose shingles vaccine six months ago.

Measles? Chickenpox. Smallpox? Tallpox? Some other kind of pox? Nope...none of the above.

We needed to think outside the pox for some other answer.

So…what, then?

When I got to Urgent Care, the doctor and I ran through all of these possibilities and more…but came up empty.

Until he said:

“Think back a little further than the day or two before. Did you do anything unusual -- or did anything out of the ordinary happen -- at any time over the previous week?”

At which point the lightbulb went off!

The preceding Tuesday, I had gone for a routine CT scan – “with contrast” – that involved…you guessed it – dye…that was injected intravenously into my arm!

“Well…that’s it, we solved the puzzle!” The doctor happily exclaimed with a "Eureka" tone in his voice. “You must have had a delayed allergic reaction to that dye…which could occur anywhere from an hour afterwards…to an entire week later!”

In all the craziness, confusion, discomfort, and anxiety related to the sudden rash, I had completely forgotten about having that scan five days earlier. And, who knew that it was possible to experience an allergic reaction like this so many days after the fact?

While I had been busy focusing my Root Cause Analysis solely on the 24 hours immediately preceding the reaction, I had put my own limiting constraints on the various hypotheses by failing to go back in time far enough to explore ALL the possible variables that should have been taken into consideration.

This situation brought to mind the classic logical fallacy known as, “Post hoc, ergo propter hoc,” which translates from the Latin into “After this, therefore, because of this.”

In simple terms, our tendency is often to assume that a situation was caused by an action or event that immediately preceded it. We think that if B followed A, then A must have been the cause of B…even if or when there is no evidence to support a causal connection.

I woke up with the rash on Monday morning after feeling totally fine the day before. So, of course, I reasoned, the rash must have been caused by something that happened on Sunday.

Except, that it wasn’t!

Anyway...now, after three days on Prednisone and Benedryl, I am happy to report that things are 80% back to normal, with an itch-free light at the end of the tunnel.

So, what lessons can we take from this cautionary tale – both literally and metaphorically, in business and in health? Among many others, these three resonated most with me:?

Beware of the “Post Hoc” (“After this, therefore, because of this”) fallacy: In any situation, when trying to determine the cause of it, don’t assume that just because one thing follows another that the preceding thing is what definitely caused it to happen. It might have…but, then again, it might not have.

Be open to a variety of outside-the-box possibilities: Don’t stop prematurely at the first or the seemingly "most obvious” answer…as it might not be the correct or the only answer. For, jumping to conclusions and then prematurely prescribing solutions before definitively and accurately diagnosing the root cause of a situation, could delay a resolution…and even, potentially, make a situation even worse. In other words, don't be "rash."

And, lastly, Know when to consult an outside expert: While leveraging the internet and AI, and bouncing ideas off others you trust, can be extremely useful from a research and advisory perspective, when dealing with a high-stakes situation with serious consequences -- whether it be related to your physical health or the health of your business – seeking out the advice of a physician – or, in the case of your business, a consultant or an executive coach – might be “just what the doctor ordered.”

If you have a similar story, a real-life example of the “Post hoc” fallacy in action, or any other lessons learned from my post, please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.

For, when it comes to stories about diagnosing root causes and prescribing solutions, I know that my story just “scratched” the surface…so, I am “itching” to hear yours! ??