Caught in a Submarine Tug-of-War

Christopher Paller Gerale [email protected]

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has always been a geopolitical powder keg, but recent developments have turned its waters into a boiling cauldron of tension. The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the United States of America (USA), has recently entered the South China Sea (SCS) as part of operations under the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet. Previously, this carrier was deployed to the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) region to reinforce American military presence amid persistent regional tensions. And now, Russia, ever the opportunist, has its submarine RFS Ufa (B-588) navigating the murky depths of the SCS into the fray with a clear eye on the strategic prize. This comes as the USA, Japan, and Australia conducted anti-submarine drills in the region—an unsubtle warning shot aimed squarely at Beijing but ricocheting into Moscow's calculus. Without a doubt, it seems the great powers are playing a high-stakes game of chicken, with ASEAN caught in the undertow.

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Russia's submarine maneuver is definitely not just a move on the chessboard, but I can say, a calculated gambit, or shall we say "a signal" that Moscow is far from a spent force in global affairs. The RFS Ufa, cutting through the waters like a silent predator, is a potent symbol of Moscow's bid to carve out relevance in a region increasingly dominated by U.S. missile deployments and military alliances. With the Typhon missile systems now stationed in the Philippines, which is against the principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, the ASEAN Charter, the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ), the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS (DOC), the 2011 Declaration of the East Asia Summit on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), as well as universally recognised principles of international law, the Kremlin, helping Beijing against Washington, senses a shift in the wind and is ready to ride this geopolitical storm to its advantage.

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For ASEAN, this all feels like a bad déjà vu—a repeat of Cold War rivalries now amplified in the digital and military age. The bloc, championing its vision of a neutral, rules-based order, is like a fisherman caught between dueling sea monsters. On one side, the USA and its allies bolster their military presence under the guise of protecting freedom of navigation; on the other, Russia capitalizes on these moves to cement ties with China, a fellow heavyweight in the anti-West camp. It is such a delicate balancing act, but ASEAN risks being reduced to a mere spectator as external powers muddy its waters.

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The U.S.-led anti-submarine drills, hailed as a show of solidarity among allies, are anything but benign. These exercises, alongside the Typhon systems, are the kind of saber-rattling that keeps regional leaders up at night. For every step Washington takes to check Beijing, it inadvertently opens the door for Moscow to make its own moves. The SCS, a vital artery of global trade, is now more militarized than ever, with Russia's submarine presence adding a new wrinkle to an already tangled mess. Russia's play here is, of course, not purely about Beijing’s benefit; it is a calculated attempt to remind the world that Moscow remains a force to be reckoned with. The Kremlin knows that while the U.S. may be the loudest voice in the room, the art of diplomacy sometimes lies in quieter moves—like a thief in the night; like a submarine cruising under the radar. By aligning with China while maintaining its distinct agenda, Russia is hedging its bets.

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For ASEAN, the stakes could not be higher. Its member states depend on the stability of the SCS not just for trade but for their very survival. Yet, their calls for a peaceful, rules-based approach are increasingly drowned out by the roar of great-power competition. It is hard to steer the ship when everyone else is setting fires along the route. Russia’s moves, while a direct challenge to US dominance, also serve as a reminder of how precarious ASEAN’s position has become in this churning sea of rivalries. On that note, the Philippines finds itself in a particularly volatile position as Manila has effectively become the front line of the burgeoning power struggle in the SCS. For a nation with a complex history of American colonization—and one that many argue remains under the sway of U.S. influence—its sovereignty often feels more like an illusion than a reality. While no longer a formal colony, the Philippines’ strategic alliance with Washington (through the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty) grants the U.S. significant leverage in shaping its defense and foreign policy. For a country deeply reliant on both trade through these contested waters and foreign partnerships for security, the stakes are nothing short of existential. Manila’s challenge lies in navigating these treacherous currents without being swept away by the tidal forces of external powers.

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The SCS may be vast, but its room for error is shrinking fast. In these fraught waters, the question remains: can ASEAN navigate these turbulent seas with its integrity intact? Or will it, like so many before it, be swept up in the currents of great-power ambition? For now, the bloc must tread carefully, knowing full well that in this dangerous game, the smallest misstep could lead to disaster, like what happened after the assassinations of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife or like what happened after the German invasion of Poland in 1939. And could the crucial misstep come from the Chief Architect of Philippine foreign policy? Time will tell.