Catching the Next Wave: Time Your Move
Geoffrey Moore
Author, speaker, advisor, best known for Crossing the Chasm, Zone to Win and The Infinite Staircase. Board Member of nLight, WorkFusion, and Phaidra. Chairman Emeritus Chasm Group & Chasm Institute.
As we come out of the pandemic and look to the year ahead, spring is approaching, the crocuses are in bloom, the groundhog has seen its shadow, and yes, the technology pundits are forecasting all the next big things. And big they are. Complete revamps of the way we work, the way we deliver health care, the way we manage privacy, the way we leverage cryptocurrencies, the way we apply AI and ML to, well, everything! Click here and be enlightened.
(Actually, in full disclosure, please notice that the prior sentence is not hyperlinked, for there is no such URL that I know of.)
Okay, so the point is, as with real-life surfing, when it comes to catching the next wave, timing is everything. Yes, there are megatrends under way, so yes, futurists really can see the future. But, did any of them think to look at the calendar when they were there? Streaming video to the home?—humongous—but Oracle’s trial in the 1990’s was a trifle early. Carbon-neutral office buildings?—mandatory!—but this year, when we are still coming out of a pandemic? Self-driving cars?—can’t come soon enough for me—but what year will I be able to really let go of the wheel?
Regardless of whether you are a public company worrying about making the quarter, or an early-stage VC fund willing to look well out into the future, every investment has a sell-by date, a time when it must step up and deliver liquidity. The further out you push that date, the more dramatic the return must be, and the more variables that can intervene to keep your horse from winning that race.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to making a bet. That’s what the surfer does with the next wave. That’s what you have to do too. And the most important variable, I would argue, is not what wave, and not what angle of attack you take to catch it, but rather, when you make your move.
One last thought: It is better to be a little bit late than a little too early. Developing markets are like shifty point guards in basketball. They give you a lot of head fakes before they make their definitive moves. Going even a little bit early can permanently put you out of position. Going a little bit late, on the other hand, will mean forsaking first-mover advantage, but it has two consolation prizes: You are still in the game, and you are in a great position if the first mover stumbles.
That’s what I think. What do you think?
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Training Officer at LinkedVA
3 年Not every opportunity is a good opportunity. We have to be very careful and not just jump into anything that is presented before us. A great timing is always a great start.
People don't just buy products; they buy the stories behind them. What's your story?
3 年Awesome post Geoffrey!
managing director at Ulysses Systems
4 年Absolutely spot on. There is an exception perhaps for those innovators who can develop their innovation without much of a burn rate over a long period and then text the waters frequently once ready. A bit like a good surfer but also like a number of historic movements like the proliferation of pastorialist states in the middle ages.
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4 年I agree. Nothing lasts forever.
TIS Delivery Director, Contract Market Harmonization Program at Enbridge Gas
4 年Enjoyed your perspective on timing your next move.