Case Study: Effectiveness and Disruption of Kamala Harris's 2024 Presidential Campaign Initiatives

Executive Summary

This case study analyzes the potential effectiveness and disruptive impact of Vice President Kamala Harris's key campaign initiatives for the 2024 presidential election. Drawing on her policy proposals, economic projections, and expert analyses, we examine the short-term and long-term implications of her platform across various sectors.

Key Initiatives

1. Economic Policy
2. Housing Affordability
3. Healthcare and Prescription Drugs
4. Climate and Energy
5. Immigration and Border Security
6. Reproductive Rights
7. Tax Policy

1. Economic Policy

Effectiveness:

• Focus on middle-class economic security and "opportunity economy"
• Proposed $50,000 tax deduction for new small businesses
• $6,000 Child Tax Credit for families with newborns

Disruption:

• Projected 2.0% reduction in GDP by 2034, increasing to 4.0% by 2054
• Estimated loss of 786,000 full-time equivalent jobs
• Potential to add $3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade

2. Housing Affordability

Effectiveness:

• $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers
• Plan to build 3 million new affordable housing units
• $40 billion innovation fund for affordable housing

Disruption:

• Potential to inflate housing prices if supply doesn't match increased demand
• Estimated cost of $250 billion over 10 years, with potential to reach $500 billion

3. Healthcare and Prescription Drugs

Effectiveness:

• Expansion of Affordable Care Act
• Lowering prescription drug costs, including capping insulin prices
• Medicare negotiation for drug prices

Disruption:

• Potential negative impact on pharmaceutical innovation
• Projected 135 fewer new drugs brought to market through 2039

4. Climate and Energy

Effectiveness:

• Continued investments in clean energy and green jobs
• Support for Inflation Reduction Act initiatives

Disruption:

• Shift from previous support for fracking ban
• Potential economic impacts on fossil fuel industries

5. Immigration and Border Security

Effectiveness:

• Support for "bipartisan solutions to enhance border security"
• Focus on addressing root causes of migration

Disruption:

• Continuation of some Trump-era border policies
• Potential tension with progressive wing of Democratic Party

6. Reproductive Rights

Effectiveness:

• Strong stance on abortion rights
• Pledge to sign legislation restoring nationwide protections

Disruption:

• Likely to face significant opposition from conservative states
• Potential for legal challenges and Supreme Court involvement

7. Tax Policy

Effectiveness:

• Proposed corporate tax rate increase to 28%
• Elimination of federal taxes on tips

Disruption:

• Projected decrease in capital stock by 3.0%
• Potential reduction in business investment and international competitiveness

Conclusion

Vice President Harris's campaign initiatives present a mixed picture of potential effectiveness and disruption. While her policies aim to address key voter concerns such as economic security, housing affordability, and healthcare costs, they also carry significant economic risks and potential for market disruption. The success of her agenda would largely depend on her ability to navigate a potentially divided Congress and mitigate the projected negative economic impacts.

The most critical elements that could have adverse effects on the United States include the potential for reduced economic growth, job losses, and increased national debt. However, these initiatives might benefit Harris politically by appealing to key Democratic constituencies and addressing pressing issues like housing affordability and healthcare costs.

The long-term implications of her policies, particularly on economic growth and innovation, warrant careful consideration. Policymakers and voters will need to weigh the potential short-term benefits against the projected long-term economic impacts when evaluating the overall effectiveness of Harris's presidential campaign initiatives.

Citations:

[1] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/harris-has-proposed-a-slew-of-economic-policies-heres-a-look-at-whats-in-them

[2] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-platform-policy-positions-2024/

[3] https://time.com/7081350/kamala-harris-presidential-platform-policies/

[4] https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/harris-campaign-policy-proposals-2024

[5] https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/the-new-democratic-presidential-ticket-whats-changed-and-what-remains-the-same/

[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx924r4d5yno

[7] https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-what-kamala-harris-presidency-looks-like/

[8] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-harris-issues-election.html

[9] https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans