The Case for Post Pandemic Big Cities and Office Spaces
Anna A. Tavis, PhD
Department Chair, @ NYU, SPS | Clinical Professor, Human Capital Management
As the coronavirus pandemic persists and companies adopt broader work-from-home-policies, the debate is brewing about the future of big cities as locations for company HQs. There are two polar opposites in the debate on the future of the metropolis: the ‘glass half empty” and “glass half full” and everything in between.
One side argues that there will be the “rise of the rest” meaning the flight to places that offer cheaper, more spacious and quieter living. The other anticipates a “quick come back” for the cities once the pandemic eases off and urban vitality rebounds again. One thing became clear in the era of social distancing and home quarantine; in face of its deficit, human connection has come up in value exponentially.
A few COVID era studies conducted by JLL real estate research firm and the World Economic Forum suggest that the global trend towards long term urbanization will continue. Cities will remain to be the magnets for the young, the adventurous, the creative, cosmopolitan and diverse. High density living is here to stay but how the cities will function will significantly change.
Take Paris, in January 2020 Mayor Anne Hidalgo announce her plan to create a” 15-minute city” where residents will be able to access everything they need within 15 minutes commute by bike or foot.[1] The fast-growing home working population will require new approaches to apartment design including productive home workspaces. Companies have begun already to create incentives to help their employees with home office setups. Reliable, high-speed internet is becoming an essential utility everywhere.
Similarly, office spaces will not shrink but will be noticeably reconfigured. While employees will be splitting their time between home working and the offices, more office spaces will be dedicated to individual workstations. Office design will support multiple workstyles and community centers and will focus on collaboration and co-creation replacing solitary work at the screens.
The key pandemic lesson we have learned is that people miss their colleagues most; they craved their lost ability to socialize at company events and keep up with their team members’ work. In the post-COVID world, greater emphasis will be placed on creating optimal human experience, with more focus on innovation, creativity and collaboration – the real reasons people and businesses want to work together.
In this “glass half full scenario” we will see the flourishing of the metropolitan centers that attract talent not just by better employment opportunities, but also by the variety of social and cultural life. Offices will remain at the heart of the business areas in major cities across the globe and thus sustain the attractiveness of urban living. Disruptive as the pandemic has been, it has served as an accelerator for the long predicted trends urbanization at large and in workplace design in particular.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/01/21/phasing-out-cars-key-to-paris-mayors-plans-for-15-minute-city/?sh=43bbf8b86952
Experienced People Analytics Professional and Consultant
4 年A wonderful read, Anna. It is true, students don't typically attend college with the hopes of moving to Smallville, USA afterwards. They dream of life in an exciting place; often a large city with similarly aged and motivated individuals. The social and professional appeals of a large city, in my mind, will never disappear. Even if the work and social scenes are continuing to be semi-remote for the time being, the excitement is still palpable. The draw to colossal cities with big buildings and budding businesses does not vanish overnight. With the current status of Covid, the growth of cities has merely slowed. But the buzz, has not!
Using data to build better work environments
4 年Almost everything we buy has been commoditized, so the cost of living (excluding housing) is almost equal across the country. The things that aren't commoditized (like art and fine dinning) are attractions and are more common in big cities that can support them. Housing is more expensive in big cities. If office buildings are turned into apartments, if new buildings are built, and if some NIMBY zoning laws are shifted, there will be pressure on housing costs to decrease. Cities have the added financial benefit in that they don't require car ownership, often the second highest cost after housing (when considering gas, insurance, depreciation, storage, etc.). This also supports cities since highways are very expensive over their lifetimes. I don't see any economic reason that people will stop living close to each other. Some people may be leaving cities now (and making a lot of noise about it). But others (often their children) will be moving in to take their place. That's what makes cities great, they attract new people with new ideas to reinvent a space. Great article, Anna. As may be obvious with the above, I couldn't agree with you more.
Chief Executive Officer at naomi
4 年I'm with you, Anna. NYC have been written written off many times in the past, and we always come back stronger than before. As someone once told me when I first moved to NYC 25 years ago was "one of the best investments you can make in America is NYC real estate".
Human Capital Strategist | Author, Strategic Workforce Planning: Best Practices and Emerging DIrections | Data-driven Human Resources and Talent Management Expert and Advisor
4 年Agree, Anna. Cities will re-emerge.