A case of mediocrity: Canada's Covid management

Let me start by praising all those Canadian's to whom we all owe so much and who have shown amazing courage in face of adversity and kept the country on its feet in the very difficult times we have faced since the pandemic started in Canada in mid-March. Healthcare fronline personnel, the transport industry workers who deliver all kinds of necessities, workers at all levels of the food suply chain and many others crucial industries are some (but not all) of those who have allowed us to weather this storm without suffering even further damage and hardship.

Unfortunately, it is the Canadian and provincial governments (I can in particular speak to the Ontario government's actions) whose track record of leadership and management has been mediocre at best and dismal at worse.

All level of governments (and our Central Bank) rushed to quickly address (rightly so) the economic shock through massive rate cuts and wage replacement and compensation. But as much as they want to keep presenting these actions as a strong show of leadership, this was nothing unique, they were simply implmenting the same rule book used by most developped countries.

Since then, unfortunately the Canadian leaders seem to have not paid attention to "what works elsewhere" as a simple way to devise a path forward. We would strongly benefit if the Canadian and Ontario government look at how a number of countries have handled the pandemic and planned the lifting of lockdowns.

Instead it seems that the proximity of the US - where a lack of the rule of science, discipline and of federal coordination - has somewhat rendered our leaders distracted as they seem to miss the basics of what has worked well elsewhere, and not properly gauge the lack of method and rigor in their own approach.

Over 11 weeks into social-distancing and stay-home measures, here are some highlights of where we stand:

1. A general lack of disinfectant and PPEs (personal protection equipment)supplies: medical alcohol, hand sanitizers, surgical masks and even detergent are available only intermittently at best in stores and pharmacies and at times at prohibitive prices (yet you can buy as much alcoholic drinks as you want and pay a hefty tax levy to the monopoly). While many medical professionals (family offices, radiologists, dentalcare professionals, etc.) are still not provided with appropriate and needed supplies of PPEs to be able to function properly putting them at risk. The Canadian government proudly announced that the order of 50million masks (a fraction of what is needed) was simply cancelled due to issues with suppliers weeks after beeing ordered! Could we not have taken these 11 weeks to be logistically stronger? (many countries did it, so yes: it was possible).
2. As far as flattening the curve goes, here is how it looks for us: daily new cases nearly stable in the last month despite social distancing while Spain's curve (and that of a long list of other countries: France, Belgium, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, etc.) shows us how a properly conducted campaign of reducing social distance combined with lockdowns drives down daily cases and the community spread. On another note Sweden's - where some general measures of caution were taken but no compulsary measures were imposed - shows a trend of daily new cases that resembles more that of Canada. That raises the question of: How effective(ly conducted) was our stay home campaign?

Takeaway: if you are doing something, make sure you do it right or don't do it at all. What we did not see in Canada compared to where results were noticeable: massive educational campaigns on TV, social media etc., an around the clock emphasis on the discipline of social distancing (rather than being "nice" about it) and a focus on setting leading by example as well as enforcement.

All of us Canadians are paying a high cost for the lack of seriousness and method by our leadership: we are paying the economic cost of countries with stringent lockdown regimes but at the same time we have the under-par healthcare and containment results of to countries with weak or loose social distancing regimes. A loose-loose outcome in the big scheme of things.

Cherry on the pie (which seems to confirm the point above): at the time of writing there has been an uptick in positive cases in Ontario over the last two weeks!

As we go into relaxing the stay-home and we proceed to re-open the economy (which we must and is necessary) it is very worrisome to see the same lack of method and seriouness we saw in the "stay-home phase"

I am simply flabbergatsed by the fact that our leaders seem not be bothering to simply Google and/or read about and/or discuss with their peers in those countries who have succesfully (to various degrees) come out of lockdown. In any case, even if they have done so, simply following best pratices proven by the likes of Germany, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. does not transpire in their communication or published plans.

In fact, I went over the reopening framework in Ontario (here is the link: https://www.ontario.ca/page/framework-reopening-our-province) and despite being lengthy in appearance, it remains quite "high level". In particular criteria defining each step is not spelled out in enough detail and most importantly they are not defined in a strongly "measurable or quantifiable" way, which is what is needed to act upon in practice.

Additionally, while there are some details on the easing, the rolling back mechanisms (if and when needed) remain also quite vague.

Most importantly, as mentioned above, no strong lessons seem to be have been taken from what has worked well elsehwere. So far, the great majority of jurisdictions with high population that have been successful in their "recovery" phase have had the two following measures as part of their program:

• Complusary (or near compulsary) masks if not in all public locations at least in some areas (public transport and stores or higher density areas)
• A well designed testing & tracing program to track all contacts with positive cases which has been implemented religiously to avoid any misses.

Bad news: we are set to go into the loosening phase without any of these two tenets of success (shouldn;t we try to put the odds on our side).

This means that there is a high probability that all Canadians will incur further healthcare risks with a strong likelihood of a more serious second wave than in other jurisdictions (such as parts of Europe and Far East) that would in turn result in further economic hardship for all of us.

I have seldom choosen to be this vocal, (in February I was vocal about the pandemic coming our way as you can see in my previous articles at the time) but the prospect of long term effects and costs (both economic and health) of this lack of method and rigor by our leadership, not to mention the high likelihood of future roll backs and lockdowns - that we would all love to avoid - has me very motivated to be vocal on the subject.

To do: It is time to keep our leadership acountable, and more urgently invite them to simply read what has worked as they plan and implement the easing in the weeks to come.

Here are a few notes we could send them to read!

Stay safe and healthy.

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