Carriers box clever on capacity and have 'the upper hand' as contract talks loom

Recent experience and ongoing chaos in the Red Sea have led to carriers’ customers asking, on the eve of new negotiations: “Do contracts amount to anything any more?”

NNR Global Logistics’ head of ocean development, Alexander Tennant, told The Loadstar geopolitical uncertainty and the current limited capacity had given carriers “the upper hand” as negotiations loom.

He added: “I expect rates sitting higher than last year, as most lines are advising their contractual space has already been fully allocated for the remainder of the year.

“It is also important to take into account that Chinese New Year is earlier in 2025, starting 29 January, than in 2024, so the run-up to it will most likely commence in December, rather than January.”

Coming out of peak season, forwarders The Loadstar spoke with noted that, “as expected”, there was a softening in the spot market.

But with the second quarter buoyed by instability and carriers keeping a firm grip on available capacity – that theme carrying into Q3 – they would expect to see rates creeping back up on the approach to China’s “Golden Week” holiday.

Xeneta this week warned supply chain operators that when it came to contract talks, they should keep an eye on extreme weather, labour disputes and rising protectionism.

“Procurement professionals are faced with the seemingly impossible task of managing ocean freight budgets against extreme market dynamics, [with] the situation set to become even more challenging,” added the analytics platform.

James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum, says he expects the upcoming contract negotiations to be different to previous rounds because of three big unknowns.

Pointing to the Red Sea crisis and carriers abandoning contractual commitments to recover real-time cost increases via dynamic pricing, index linking and surcharges, he said the first unknown was whether contracts “amounted to anything”.

He told The Loadstar: “Increasing use of carrier booking platforms and dynamic pricing means more shippers are being quoted ‘personalised’ spots when they book cargo, even though the volumes may have been contracted previously.

“Only the very largest shippers enjoy a genuine negotiated rate, and even then carriers are walking away from those when pressure on space and spot rates has risen.

“A contract is rapidly turning into mere ‘terms and conditions for carriage’ issued by the shipping line. So, the second big unknown is whether ‘I am really getting a better deal by committing up front, or do they know too much about my business for this to be a real negotiation?’.”

Both Mr Hookham and another forwarder The Loadstar spoke to suggested deliveries of new ships over the next 18 months “should” ease pressure on capacity.

The forwarder suggested carriers had been careful to deploy vessels to limit the level of capacity available, but Mr Hookham said there was only so far carriers could take this, and he expected an imminent change in the supply side situation.

“Just how much of that [new capacity] will actually become available to book space on, and when, is the third big unknown (at least for shippers),” added Mr Hookham.