Carbon Reporting & Agribusiness Lending
Hello
For many regions across Australia, it's clear this year has been a difficult one for many. The stop-start nature of this harvest season has undoubtably been a source of frustration, particularly when the rainfall totals during harvest exceeded the rainfall received in the growing season.
The importance of seeking support during challenging times cannot be overstated.? Whether it's financial advice, discussing strategies with lenders, or even reaching out to a trusted colleague or professional, there are resources and people who can help guide you through these times.? Don't hesitate to take that first step in seeking support if you need it.? And to my clients, I am only a phone call away - I am a good listener and I'm in your corner.
If you've been following me for a while or a current client you'll know that I'm always banging on about the ongoing support I provide to my clients - it's what sets me apart from many other agribrokers.? And you might be wondering, what exactly I do that could benefit your business?
Here's a quick rundown of what I've been working on over the last few weeks.? Some is for existing clients and some for new ones, but I think you'll get the idea.
You've probably already seen it splashed over my social media pages, but I'm excited to share that I was recently awarded The Advisor Agricultural Finance Broker of the Year.
It’s such an honor to be recognized in such a competitive field, and honestly, I couldn’t have done it without the incredible support of my clients, colleagues, and everyone who has trusted me over the years.
A huge thank you to everyone who has been part of this journey - your trust and support mean the world!? Here's to even more success ahead.?? I am obviously looking at the wrong camera in this photo!!
As we head towards the end of another challenging year, there is a significant change facing the agriculture sector. From 1 January 2025, many large Australian businesses and financial institutions will need to prepare annual sustainability reports. These reports will include mandatory climate-related financial disclosures, including carbon reporting.
Announcing this decision, ASIC Commissioner Kate O’Rourke said,
‘As more people consider environmental sustainability when making financial decisions, climate disclosure will continue to grow in importance. Enhanced climate disclosure will also benefit reporting entities themselves, enabling them to better understand their climate-related risks and opportunities over the short, medium and long term.’
Even if you don’t agree with this approach, these requirements are likely to affect banks and their lending decisions.
So in this blog, I want to share some background on what carbon reporting is and how it might affect your financial institution. Click on the link below to read more.
What's Happening with Interest Rates?
The next RBA meeting an official cash rate announcement will be on December 10th 2024.?? Australia's big banks are forecasting that the RBA will keep the official cash rate on hold next week, with a cash rate cut unlikely to occur until early to mid 2025. Economic factors that could influence future RBA decisions include sticky inflation and weak economic growth, as revealed in the recent National Accounts figures from the ABS. The RBA's own forecasts see the cash rate falling by mid-2025, in line with expectations derived from financial market pricing. Here's what the big four banks think:
ANZ: May 2025
Economists from ANZ recently made a significant shift in their cash monetary policy predictions. Where previously they had been forecasting three rate cuts in 2025, starting from February, they are now predicting just two, with the first to take place in May 2025, followed by a second in August 2025, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%.
ANZ head of Australian economics, Adam Boynton, said that the factors prompting this change included stronger-than-expected employment growth and related labour statistics, business conditions holding around long-run average levels, and rising consumer confidence.
"A lower-than-expected Q4 CPI and some softening in the labour market could prompt the RBA to cut in February, especially given that the November Board minutes appeared to open the door to an early 2025 easing. However, that would require either the data between now and then to print on the downside or the Board to act more pre-emptively than its current language suggests."
Commonwealth Bank: February 2025
Economists from the Commonwealth Bank are sticking to their forecast of a February 2025 cut to the cash rate, based in part on data revealed in the National Accounts from the ABS. According to Commonwealth Bank analysis, the nation’s GDP rose by just 0.3% in Q3 2024, and annual growth was also well below trend at 0.8%, thanks in part to strong government spending cushioning very weak private sector growth.
Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said that based on these results, the RBA may need to revise its own forecasts for Q4 2024 GDP downwards.
"We continue to believe that the RBA’s forecast for Q4 24 GDP is too strong. And that coupled with our expectation for the unemployment rate to edge higher over coming months and trimmed mean CPI to print at 0.6%/qtr (or lower) in Q4 24 means we stick with our call for the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate in February. The risk clearly sits with a later start date to the rate cutting cycle, particularly if the unemployment rate has not moved higher over the next two months."
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NAB: May 2025
Economists from NAB have also looked closely at the latest GDP figures, describing Australia’s overall economic growth as around its weakest since the early 1990s, outside of the Covid lockdowns. However, they argued that the data would have few immediate implications for the RBA:
"The headline growth figure was marginally below their implied forecast and highlights the risk of a slower pickup in consumption, but still weak productivity growth and strong unit labour costs growth point to the risk of ongoing elevated price/cost pressures."
Based on this data, NAB has reverted to its forecast that the RBA will keep the national cash rate on hold until May 2025.
Westpac: May 2025
Westpac recently adjusted its interest rate forecast, pushing the next rate cut prediction back from February 2025 to May 2025. Additionally, the bank is predicting consecutive rate cuts in late May and early July 2025, rather than a steady pace of one cut per quarter.
Westpac group chief economist, Luci Ellis, said that an earlier start to an easing cycle in February or March 2025 is still possible, though is no more likely than a May start date.
"A later start date is also a risk scenario, if inflation does not decline as the RBA is currently forecasting, let alone our own marginally more dovish expectation. That said, the longer the RBA Board waits, the faster they will need to move thereafter, as it would then be more likely that they have hesitated too long."
"Very often, agriculture is seen as one of the contributors to climate change. I think we can fundamentally turn this around and make agriculture not just a part of solution, but one of the biggest contributors to addressing climate change. Farmers have the opportunity to become the heroes of the climate solution. Here’s why we believe that is true. There are 3.6 billion acres of farmland worldwide. Those agricultural acres – and the farmers who operate on them – have a unique opportunity to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it within the soil.? Farmers have the potential to do so by transitioning to a more beneficial agriculture system – including implementing what are commonly referred to as regenerative practices – those that regenerate the soil. These practices include cover cropping, crop rotation, reduced pesticide and fertilizer use, not tilling the soil, and integrating livestock. Many farmers are already using these practices around the world. By adopting and applying more of those practices, farmers are in a position to draw down and sequester more carbon in the soil. By doing so, farmers can become a key solution to not only reducing emissions on the farm but to harnessing their soils to draw down carbon dioxide and address climate change." — Karsten Neuffer, Global Chief Commercial Officer of Indigo Ag
Have a great day!! Deb
Latest News
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has weighed in on the right to repair issue, but fell short of explicitly including agricultural machinery in his proposed reforms. Dr Chalmers told the Australian Business Economists on Wednesday: "I expect we’ll start by fast-tracking the adoption of trusted international product safety standards and developing a general right to repair – both Commonwealth-led reforms."
National Farmers' Federation Chief Executive Officer Tony Mahar urged the Federal Government to commit to including agricultural machinery in proposed reforms. "What we need is greater flexibility for farmers to repair their equipment, like what other countries have achieved for their farm sector. We haven't been able to land any such arrangements so far," Mr Mahar said.
Andrew Andreyev from ADLV Law writes, as business owners, most of you will have basic standard employment contracts or letters of offer that you use for new employees. These basic documents are generally sufficient when it comes to covering the obvious things like remuneration, hours of work, basic duties and employee entitlements such as leave. What they usually fail to cover, though, are the real issues that might go wrong in an employment relationship. When something actually does go wrong, these basic documents fail to provide you with protection, recourse and remedies.
Andrew Whitelaw, Founder & Director of Episode 3 reports. It looks like we are having a wet harvest in several regions, which isn’t good news. The impact is that we are likely to have more downgraded wheat. Rainfall during wheat harvesting can severely impact grain quality. Prolonged exposure to moisture often leads to sprouting in the head, where kernels begin to germinate while still on the plant, significantly reducing their value for milling and baking. Additionally, wet conditions can lower the test weight of the grain, cause discolouration, and encourage the growth of mould and fungi. I ain’t an agronomist, but it’s not good. What I care about is the market impact, that’s what really matters.
Purvis AgriFinance
PO Box 616
Wallaroo? SA? 5556
0409 438 115
Credit Representative 501225 is authorised under Australian Credit Licence No 389328
Founder of JAB Agri Solutions | ABDI Agri Business Manager | Livestock Producer | Compliance Advocate | Qualified Bookkeeper | MLA Red Meat Ambassador | P2P Data Analysis Specialist - in training
2 个月Way of the world from now on, ensuring all businesses are taking measures with respect to ESG. To remain a high rating customer within your finance facility you must be taking your own steps towards ESG. The large banks have been doing this for a while now while on property (self audits).
Ag Event Production, Extension & Facilitation, Farm Business Planning and Coaching.
2 个月Just talking to people about this just last week Deb, so perfect timing. Are you ok if I share?
Experienced business banking specialist, my career has been driven by a passion for rural communities offering high quality customer service & tailored banking solution.
2 个月Awesome share Deb! ?? Personally I’m passionate about a sustainable future, I’ve commenced studying Enviromentally Sustainable Management this month. I hope to be able to support business to navigate the legislation, implementation & monitoring of EMS plans & a inevitable future of sustainability auditing requirements. Watch banks risk appetite change in the coming year, it’s going to be a very interesting landscape.