Carbon Emissions Will Soon be Subject to “Dual Control”

It had been a while since the Chinese leadership last emphasised the goal of reaching peak carbon by 2030. Even the final Resolution of the recent Third Plenum stated that China should “actively yet prudently” peak its carbon emissions, without mentioning any particular date.

Then the State Council’s latest Action Plan was unveiled on 2 August, with a focus on building a regulatory system to control carbon emission intensity and total carbon emission volume. This so-called “dual control” mechanism would serve as a booster shot for China’s ambitious “dual carbon” objectives. And, for the first time in a while, the Action Plan specifically reiterated that relevant authorities should take the necessary measures to “make sure” that China peaks its carbon emissions by 2030.

How will this be done? Firstly, the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is set to introduce a mandatory national target for carbon emissions per unit of GDP, replacing the energy intensity KPIs currently in use. To achieve this goal, provincial governments would have to establish their own targets and push local enterprises into action. Following that, the 16th Five-Year Plan (2031-2035) would gradually implement a total emissions target – once the peak has already been passed, in 2030.

Although this is a very basic schedule, having some kind of timeline is better than having nothing at all. The 15th Five-Year Plan is supposed to be announced in approximately 18 months; by that time, concerned parties would need to have prepared a comprehensive set of carbon emission measurement tools – and not only for the most heavily scrutinised, carbon-intensive industries. There is still much work left to do.