Carbon Budget and the Global Stocktake: A Crucial Step Towards Climate Action

Scientists have established a strong consensus that human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, are the primary drivers of climate change. During the 2015 COP meeting, an overwhelming number of countries adopted the Paris Agreement under which they decided to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels. With this came the need of a quantitative framework to limit these emissions and prevent catastrophic temperature rise. This is when carbon budgeting emerged as a tool for countries to track their progress towards this goal and ensure they stay within their allotted carbon emissions and to help the issue of historical responsibility for climate change. Developed countries, which have emitted significantly more greenhouse gases in the past, can use carbon budgets to set more ambitious targets and help developing countries adapt to climate change.

As the world grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, the concept of a carbon budget and the mechanism of the Global Stocktake have become central to global efforts to mitigate the crisis. Carbon budgeting provides a long-term perspective on climate action, allowing countries to plan their energy systems, infrastructure, and economic development in a way that is consistent with their climate goals. These tools are designed to guide nations and organizations in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep global warming within manageable limits. Understanding these concepts is crucial for anyone involved in climate action, policy-making, or environmental advocacy.

What is a Carbon Budget?

A carbon budget represents the maximum amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be emitted into the atmosphere while still having a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to a specific temperature threshold—typically 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement.

The concept is based on the understanding that there is a direct relationship between the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and global temperature rise. To prevent catastrophic climate impacts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated how much more CO2 the world can afford to emit before these temperature thresholds are breached.

For example, to have a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the remaining carbon budget from 2020 onwards is approximately 400 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2). Given that global emissions are currently around 40 GtCO2 per year, this budget could be exhausted within a decade if no significant reductions are made.

The Importance of Staying Within the Carbon Budget

Staying within the carbon budget is crucial because exceeding it would likely lead to irreversible changes in the climate system. These changes could include more frequent and severe weather events, rising sea levels, and widespread disruptions to ecosystems and human societies.

We are already witnessing a lot of these extreme weather events and the concept of a carbon budget highlights the urgency of immediate and sustained emissions reductions. The longer the world delays in cutting emissions, the steeper the reductions will need to be in the future, making the transition to a low-carbon economy more challenging and costly.

Global Stocktake: A Disappointing Reality

The Global Stocktake (GST) is a critical component of the Paris Agreement, designed to assess the collective progress of countries towards achieving the agreement's long-term goals, including staying within the carbon budget. The first GST was conducted in 2023 at COP28 Dubai, with subsequent stocktakes to happen every five years. Dubai Stocktake gave us a horrific reality that the world was not on track to limit the global warming to 1.5 degrees and that there is a significant gap between the financial resources needed to implement climate action and the current funding available.

The GST serves several key functions:

Assessment of Collective Progress: The GST evaluates how well countries are doing in terms of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and whether these efforts are sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.

Enhancing Ambition: By highlighting gaps between current actions and the required level of ambition, the GST encourages countries to strengthen their NDCs and adopt more aggressive climate policies.

Transparency and Accountability: The GST fosters transparency by providing a comprehensive overview of global climate action. This transparency is intended to build trust among countries and ensure that everyone is contributing fairly to global efforts.

Guidance for Future Action: The outcomes of the GST provide valuable insights that can guide future climate negotiations and policy-making, helping countries align their strategies with the latest scientific findings and the evolving needs of the planet.

The Relationship Between Carbon Budget and Global Stocktake

The carbon budget and the Global Stocktake are inherently interconnected. The carbon budget provides a quantitative limit on emissions, while the GST assesses how well the world is adhering to this limit. Together, they form a feedback loop that is essential for keeping global climate action on track. Basically, carbon budget is the tool for a goal and Global Stocktake is the assessment criteria of the goal-related action.

During each Global Stocktake, the carbon budget serves as a benchmark for evaluating progress. If the GST reveals that emissions are exceeding the carbon budget trajectory, it signals the need for more ambitious action. Conversely, if countries are on track or ahead of their targets, the GST can highlight best practices and successful policies that other nations might adopt.

Challenges in Implementing the Carbon Budget and Global Stocktake

The success of both concepts hinges on the political will of nations to commit to and follow through on their climate pledges. In some cases, short-term economic interests and political pressures can undermine long-term climate goals.

The distribution of the carbon budget raises questions of equity, particularly between developed and developing countries. Developing nations often argue that they should have more leeway to emit CO2 as they strive to lift their populations out of poverty, while developed countries, which have historically contributed the most to climate change, should shoulder a greater share of the burden.

Accurate data is crucial for both tracking the carbon budget and conducting the GST. However, differences in reporting standards, data quality, and measurement methodologies can complicate efforts to get a clear picture of global progress. The GST is designed to encourage greater ambition, but translating its findings into action is not guaranteed. Countries due to many geopolitical or even internal factors resist tightening their NDCs, or they may lack the capacity to implement the necessary changes.

The Path Forward: Strengthening Global Climate Action

1. Enhancing International Cooperation: Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. Strengthening international cooperation and support for developing countries is crucial for achieving climate goals. This includes providing financial resources, technology transfer, and capacity-building assistance.
2. Increasing Transparency: Ensuring that all countries provide accurate and up-to-date data on their emissions and climate actions is essential for the credibility of the GST. Enhanced transparency measures, such as standardized reporting guidelines and independent verification, can help achieve this.
3. Encouraging Ambition: The findings of the GST should be used to galvanize greater ambition. This can be achieved through diplomatic efforts, public pressure, and by showcasing the benefits of strong climate action, such as economic opportunities in green industries.
4. Supporting Innovation: Technological innovation will play a key role in staying within the carbon budget. Investing in research and development for renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon capture, and storage, and other low-carbon technologies is crucial.
5. Aligning Policies with Science: Policymakers must ensure that their decisions are guided by the latest scientific research. This includes not only adhering to the carbon budget but also considering the broader implications of climate change on ecosystems, human health, and socio-economic stability.

The carbon budget and the Global Stocktake are essential tools in the global fight against climate change. By providing a clear framework for tracking and evaluating progress, they help ensure that the world stays on course to meet the Paris Agreement's goals. However, their success depends on the collective efforts of all nations, driven by strong political will, international cooperation, and a commitment to ambitious climate action. Now, more than ever, it is crucial that we stay within the carbon budget and use the insights from the Global Stocktake to build a sustainable and resilient future for all.