Capabilities-Based Planning (Wright Brothers)

We talk about Capabilities-Based Planning as the basis of project success in our current world. Starting with the question What Capabilities Do We Need to Accomplish the Mission or Fulfill the Strategy? CBP is a flow down from DoD and several other agencies, for example:

• Capabilities-Based Planning in the Coming Global Security Environment
• Analytical Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation.

Capabilities Based Planning provides a description of what?Done?looks like in units of measure meaningful to the decision-makers. These measures include:

• Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) - Operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment under a specific set of conditions.
• Measures of Performance (MOP) - Measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions.
• Technical Performance Measures (TPM) - Attributes that determine how well a system or system element is satisfying or expected to satisfy a technical requirement or goal.
• Key Performance Parameters (KPP) are key system capabilities that must be met for a system to deliver its operational goals.
• Key System Attributes (KSA) - a system capability considered crucial to achieving a balanced solution/approach to a Key Performance Parameter (KPP) or some other key performance attribute deemed necessary by the sponsor.

Wright Brothers Technical Plan

The Wrights based their work on the same?Systems Engineering Principles we discovered later.

Operational Concept

• Vision: the clear concept of the system they were developing
• Mission Requirements: powered flight for substantial time and distance
• Scenarios: recognition of a key Scenario involving lateral control during flight

Define the System Boundaries

• Understand the need for the pilot to be part of the system

Mission Objective

• Definition of Distance, Payload, and time of flight objectives

Derived Requirements

• Horsepower and weight of engine and airframe
• Thrust of the propulsion system

Requirements Management

• Manage weight requirements of the engine

Functional Analysis

• Understand the functions of the aircraft that drive the design process
• Understand the functions of the propulsion subsystem

Physical Architecture and Interfaces

• Match the physical architecture to the functions of the aircraft
• Interfaces between pilot and control surfaces
• Interfaces between engine and propellers

Prototypes and Testing

• Build a successfully more complex set of gliders before building the airplane.
• The first airplane was successful due to the series of gliders and kites.
• Employ sophisticated testing with each prototype, atypical of others at the time.

Trade-Off Decisions

• Favor control of aircraft over stability

System Test

• Extensive, even during glider tests
• Allow problem identification and solving during all test phases
• Create a wind tunnel to address discrepancies between their test data and the literature
• Include the careful selection of the test site

Verification

• Test engine to determine if it meets the technical performance measures

Validation

• The final test proved that powered flight was possible
• Team ActivitiesTwo brothers formed a design-build team
• Additional members designed and built an engine

The Wright Brothers’ strategy was to increase lift, thrust, and reduce drag as the design evolved. Early wind tunnel tests showed that the 1908 prototype had to weigh ≤ 800 pounds, needed more thrust, and increased lift (surface area). They would meet these objectives by iterative building, testing, and rebuilding the flyer. They would also practice extensively.

They developed the contractual deliverables with an?iterative and incremental?approach:

• Define the technical approach to building the product that will allow it to meet the performance and effectiveness goals.
• Identify all the variables that will impact the solution to the technical and operational requirements.
• Apply a spiral development approach by sequencing the work to assure the increasing maturing of the deliverables supports the plan to reach Done.

Army Needed Capabilities

Here's an extract from the Army Signal Corps December 23, 1907 Request for Proposal of What DONE looks like:

• “The flying machine must be designed to carry two people having a combined weight of about 350 pounds, also sufficient fuel for a flight of 125 miles.”
• “The flying machine should be designed to have a speed of at least 40 miles per hour in still air for at least 125 miles.”
• “The flying machine should be designed to be quickly and easily assembled, taken apart, and packed into an Army wagon. It should be capable of being assembled and put in operating condition within one hour.”
• “Before acceptance, a trial endurance flight will be required at least one hour, during which time the flying machine must remain continuously in the air without landing. It shall return to the starting point and land without any damage that would prevent it from immediately starting upon another flight. During this flight of one hour, it must be steered in all directions without difficulty and at all times under perfect control and equilibrium.”
• "It should be sufficiently simple in its construction and operation to permit an intelligent man to become proficient in its use within a reasonable length of time”.

Iterative and Incremental development is?normal?systems engineering processes.?Agile?is NOT unique to this principle. Agile just took the systems engineering and applied it to software development, where the stakeholder may not have an understanding of what?Done?looks like in terms of MOE, MOP, TPM, KPP. Research shows those missing measures are the Root Cause of project failure in any and all project domains, processes, technologies, or methods

Here is the 3-page contract from the U.S. Army to the Wright Brothers containing a list of?Capabilities?to be produced in exchange for $25,000