Cantella Rates and Credit Dashboard--7/12/21

????????Certainly should be a more active week……. We have both the 3 year and 10 year auction today, and the 30 year auction tomorrow.?Earnings for Q2 begin and Powell speaks in front of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.?There is a new range on the 10 year Treasury , now between 1.24% and 1.42%.?It opens at 1.34%.?Some think that the economy may have peaked.?Covid concerns globally have ratcheted up a bit as the Delta variant and a slow rollout of vaccinations are becoming problematic.?Madame Lagarde of the ECB was Dovish over the weekend, talking about extending their view of monetary policy with the hope of fiscal policy.?Here in the U.S. , the Infrastructure bill will more in the news.?On the progressive side Bernie Sanders is talking about 6 trillion.?President Biden is talking 4 trillion. Most pundits think 2 to 3 trillion is more likely.?What is a trillion among friends??If a deal is not structured b July 31, the reconciliation window will close.?CREDIT:?After some softness mid-week, spreads rallied.?IG issuance is expected to be around $40 billion.?As we know High Yield is at nose bleed levels , but HY in China is getting crushed.?Single B’s have fallen 7 points in the past month. 3 year paper is yielding over 18%, which is higher than the peak of Covid last year.?The Krane China Corporation HY Index is down 1.5%.?IG 36 opens at 48.?Please let the rain stop…….

ECON STATS:?

Tuesday—June C.P.I.??exp.?0.5% from?0.6%

???????????????????????????Ex Food and Energy?exp.?0.4%?from?0.7%?

Wednesday—June P.P.I.??exp.?0.5%??from?0.8%?

?????????????????????????????????????????Ex Food and Energy?exp.?0.5%?from?0.7%?

?????????????????????????Fed Beige Book

Thursday—July?Empire Manufacturing?exp.?18.0?from?17.4

???????????????????July Philly Fed?exp.?28.0?from?30.7

???????????????????IUC’s??exp.?350k?from?373k?

????????????????????June Import Price Index?exp.?1.2%?from?1.1%

???????????????????June Industrial Production?exp.?0.6%?from?0.8%

???????????????????June Capacity Utilization??exp.?75.6%?from?75.2%?

Friday—June Retail Sales?exp.?(-0.4%)?from?(-1.3%)?

????????????????????????Ex-Autos and Gas?exp.?0.4%?from?(-0.7%)?

???????????????May Business Inventories?exp.?0.5%?from?(-0.2%)?

???????????????July University of Michigan Sentiment?exp.?86.5??from?85.5??

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