Canada's population growth rate finally slowed in 2024 but still doubled the historical average

After experiencing unprecedented population growth of 3.2% in 2023, Canada’s growth rate declined to 1.9% in 2024. This added approximately 780,000 residents, bringing the total population to 41.5 million by January 2025.

Population Growth in 2023

In 2023, Canada's population increased significantly by over 3.2%. This increase was driven mainly by two main factors: record-high targets for permanent immigration and a substantial rise in non-permanent residents, such as international students, temporary workers, and asylum seekers. Documentation from Statistics Canada reveals that these trends have not gone unnoticed; in 2022, senior immigration officials cautioned that such rapid population increases could lead to heightened pressure on housing and healthcare services.

Policy Adjustments in 2024

Despite the warnings, the federal government did not implement changes to immigration policy until January 2024. One of the key reforms aimed to limit the issuance of study permits for international students, which will primarily impact the third quarter of 2024, resulting in fewer students entering the country. Additionally, restrictions on work permits have been gradually introduced throughout 2024. However, the number of non-permanent residents continued to rise during this period. Between July 1st and October 1st, 2024, the number of international students fell by 4.5%, but this decline was offset by a 4.4% increase in work permits and an 8.1% rise in asylum seekers. Many students opt to stay in Canada after graduation by applying for work permits under the post-graduation program.

The percentage of non-permanent residents in Canada jumped from 5.5% before the appointment of the new Immigration Minister in mid-2023 to 7.3% by October 2024. This translates to an increase of over 850,000 non-permanent residents in just over a year. The minister set the federal target of keeping this percentage around 5% in March 2024, aiming to return levels to where they were when he took office. Historically, non-permanent residents accounted for only 1-2% of Canada’s population. Despite increasing evidence of strain on resources, the government did not modify its 2024 immigration targets, anticipating accepting 485,000 permanent immigrants, thus potentially setting a new record for annual immigration.

Statistics Canada provides real-time estimates of the population, and as of January 1, 2025, it is projected to reach approximately 41,564,000. While this figure is preliminary, it suggests an annual increase of around 780,000 for 2024, yielding a growth rate of 1.9%. Although this is a decrease from the remarkable growth of 3.2% seen in 2023, it remains nearly double the historical average for the country. As Canada navigates its immigration policies and population dynamics, the implications remain significant for housing, healthcare, and public services.