Canada's Energy Regulator should develop a net-zero scenario, Letter to Prime Minister, July 2021

(Letter developed by Prof. Nicolas Rivers, University of Ottawa)

The Right Hon. Justin Trudeau, Q.C., M.P.

Office of the Prime Minister

80 Wellington Street

Ottawa, K1A OA2

July 8, 2021

Dear Prime Minister Trudeau,

Mandate the CER to model 2050 net-zero scenarios in Canada Energy Futures

As scientists, academics and energy system modellers we are writing to urge you to mandate the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) to model 2050 net-zero energy futures scenarios. We believe such modelling is essential to support Canada’s stated efforts to meet and exceed its climate targets and to reflect our responsibility under the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5

C above pre-industrial levels. The resulting analysis would help align investment decisions with a climate-safe future, and provide industry, regulators, policy-makers and Canadians the tools and context they need to plan for Canada’s energy transition.

The CER’s annual “Energy Futures” reports are an influential part of the energy information and planning landscape. To date, the CER (and its predecessor, the National Energy Board) has only modelled a suite of scenarios that imply the Paris Agreement’s goals will not be met, where the world does too little to reduce its production and consumption of oil, gas and coal, and where Canada’s climate policies lack ambition and fail to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

In May 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Net Zero by 2050 report, charting a path for the global energy sector to be in line with meeting the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. This comprehensive study of how to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050 describes the suite of global policies and actions needed along this pathway and the implications for global energy markets and future investments. It details the required expansion of renewable energy and the advantages of a cleaner, climate-compatible energy system. The IEA report emphasizes that the pathway to net-zero emissions is narrow and policies and public and private sector investments need to be quickly brought into alignment with net-zero pathway requirements.

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is a monumental task, especially against a backdrop of increasing economic and population growth. It calls for an unwavering focus from all governments, working together with industries and citizens, to ensure that the transition to global net-zero emissions proceeds in a co-ordinated way without delay. (p. 152)

If all levels of government in Canada, the private sector and civil society are to have such unwavering focus, more detailed modelling of Canada’s net zero pathway is needed. The CER presents itself as the authoritative source of energy information and the “Energy Futures” series are routinely utilized by industry and policy-makers to benchmark future energy trends, to evaluate the viability of investments.

Although the CER has made progress with its discussion of net-zero in “Energy Futures 2020,” it does not currently model scenarios where Canada’s energy sector aligns with the government’s net zero by 2050 goal. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, and a member country to the IEA, Canada should bring its energy futures modelling into alignment with international best practice and the government’s net-zero goal. Specifically, we urge you to mandate that the Canadian Energy Regulator model scenarios that are informed by the IEA’s 1.5 C report, including:

● Reflects global investment, demand, production and pricing forecasts for oil, gas and coal that are consistent with the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 report

● Reflects domestic greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets for 2030 and 2050 that meet or exceed federal climate commitments in line with Canada’s global responsibilities under the Paris Agreement.

To ensure a safe future, we need urgent climate action globally, and indeed within Canada, to transform our global energy systems. By modelling scenarios that reflect the government’s 2050 net zero objective in the annual “Energy Futures” reports and giving them the same the level of priority as the reference scenario, the CER can reduce the risk of stranded investments in oil, gas and coal development, better inform policy design, and provide more relevant information for workers and communities grappling with an accelerating energy transition.

Yours sincerely,

[in alphabetical order]

Werner Antweiler, PhD, Associate Professor, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia

Chris Bataille, PhD, Senior Researcher, Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales – SciencesPo (IDDRI.org), Paris, France; IPCC AR6 Lead Author Chapter 11 (Industry), Technical Summary and Summary for Policy Makers; Adjunct Professor, Simon Fraser University

Louis Beaumier, MScA, directeur exécutif, Institut de l’énergie Trottier – Polytechnique Montréal

Angela Carter, PhD, Associate Professor Political Science, University of Waterloo; Fellow, Balsillie School of International Affairs

Curran Crawford, PhD, Peng, Professor, Institute for Integrated Energy Systems, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Victoria

Ann Dale, PhD, Canada Research Chair, Trudeau Fellow Alumna, Presidential Advisor on Regenerative Sustainability, Director, School of Environment & Sustainability, Royal Roads University

Fran?ois Delorme, MA, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Sherbrooke

Brett Dolter, PhD, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Regina

Simon Donner, PhD, Professor, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia

Kathryn Harrison, PhD, Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia

George Hoberg, PhD, Professor, Environment and Natural Resource Policy, School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia

Mark Jaccard, PhD, FRSC, Distinguished Professor, Director of the School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University

Madeleine McPherson, PhD, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria

Normand Mousseau, PhD, professeur de physique, Université de Montréal et directeur scientifique de l’Institut de l’énergie Trottier, Polytechnique Montréal; Co-directeur de l’Initiative de modélisation énergétique/Energy Modelling Initiative

Nicholas Rivers, PhD, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of Ottawa

Dave Sawyer, MDE, Principal Economist at EnviroEconomics Inc.; School Fellow, Carleton’s School of Public Policy

Ralph D. Torrie, Research Director, Corporate Knights

Kathleen Vaillancourt, PhD, MBA, President and Lead Modeller, ESMIA Consultants Inc.

Peter A. Victor, PhD, FRCS, Professor Emeritus, York University

Mark S. Winfield, PhD, Professor. Co-Chair, Sustainable Energy Initiative Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University

Hisham Zerriffi, PhD, Associate Professor, Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia

cc. Hon. Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Environment and Climate Change

Hon Seamus O’Regan, Minister of Natural Resources

Gitane De Silva, Chair and CEO, Canada Energy Regulator