Canada Unveils Updated Immigration Levels Strategy for 2025-2027.

Canada’s economic immigration is set to decline by 30% compared to the figures outlined in previous Immigration Levels Plans. According to the 2024-2026 Plan, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada initially projected the admission of 301,250 economic immigrants in 2025. However, this figure has now been revised down to 232,150 for the same year. The Provincial Nominee Program has experienced the most significant reduction in numbers. In contrast, there remains a target of 82,980 for In-Canada Express Entry candidates, primarily to be fulfilled through the Canadian Experience Class

• A Comparative Analysis of the 2024 Levels Against the Proposed 2025 to 2027 Levels
• At first glance, the outlook for Express Entry, an economic immigration initiative, appears bleak.

The 2024-2026 Plan had initially set a target of 301,250 economic immigrants for 2025, but this has now been adjusted to 232,150, reflecting a nearly 30% reduction.

Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that a considerable portion of this decrease is attributed to the Provincial Nominee Program, which has seen its planned admissions drop from 120,000 to merely 55,000.

Express Passage Affirmations Anticipated to Increment in the 2025-2027 Levels Arrange:

Upon further examination, there is encouraging news for individuals seeking to shift from temporary to permanent residency, particularly regarding the In-Canada allocation and Economic Priorities allocation.

In the prior 2024-2026 Levels Arrange, the target for ‘Federal Tall Skilled’ affirmations was set at 117,500 for both 2025 and 2026.

The 2025-2027 Plan outlines targets of 82,980 for the In-Canada Focus (which includes the Canadian Experience Class) and 41,700 for ‘Federal Economic Priorities’ (which encompasses targeted draws for French speakers, healthcare professionals, and tradespeople). This results in a total allocation of 124,680, surpassing the previously announced levels. Outstandingly, the arranged levels for the In-Canada Center surpass the number of confirmations through the Canadian Involvement Course in 2023 and 2024, based on current data. This suggests that in 2025, we can expect a greater number of invitations to be issued to candidates with Canadian work experience compared to 2024 and 2023.

Understanding the 'In-Canada Focus':

For the first time, the immigration levels plan incorporates an In-Canada Focus aimed at easing the transition to permanent residency for individuals already residing in Canada as students and workers. The primary source for the 82,980 spots allocated to this category will be applicants in the Express Entry pool under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program.

Considering that the average CEC applicant is single, if the majority of the 82,980 spots are allocated to CEC applicants, this would signify a substantial increase in the number of CEC applicants receiving Invitations to Apply (ITA). This is particularly noteworthy given that CEC applicants accounted for only one-third of all ITAs in 2024, approximately 40,000.

Forecast: A distribution for the Semi-Skilled Workers Pathway:

Regional Movement Pathways have been recognized as a potential source of confirmations inside the In-Canada center category. Consequently, the In-Canada focus may encompass the TEER 4 and TEER 5 (Semi-Skilled Worker) Pathway Program, which was initially announced in August 2024 but has yet to be implemented.

Should this program be activated, it would provide a valuable opportunity for semi-skilled workers who may not secure a Provincial nomination in 2025. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) have traditionally served as a favored route for temporary residents lacking a sufficiently high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score to obtain an invitation through Express Entry.

A Shift in Category-Based Selection:

The Federal Economic Priorities category of the plan offers 41,700 available positions. While there has been no formal alteration to the categories targeted in category-based selection draws, the levels plan indicates that the priority categories for 2025 will include

• Healthcare occupations,
• Trade occupations, and
• French-language proficiency.

Thus, it is reasonable to anticipate that only these three categories will be prioritized, with STEM, Transport, and Agriculture and agri-food occupations likely being excluded in 2025.

How will the allocation of the 41,700 positions be determined?

As of the end of October 2024, there have been a total of 32,225 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued across various categories:

• French-language candidates seem to possibly get 26,396 of these positions in 2025.
• Healthcare applicants comprised 22.5%, amounting to 7,200 invitations.
• Trade applicants represented 14.2%, which corresponds to 4,575 invitations.

If we project these same proportions onto the 41,700 positions available for 2025, the distribution would be as follows:

• French-language candidates seem possibly get 26,396 of these positions in 2025.
• Healthcare applicants might be allocated 9,383 positions; and
• Trade applicants could receive 5,921 positions.

This suggests that it is probable we will continue to observe category-based draws at similar intervals to those experienced this year, including irregular draws for trades and healthcare, along with approximately one French-language draw each month, and a strong likelihood of at least one significantly large French-language draw.

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