Canada-China Brief: Trudeau Floats AUKUS, China-India Election Interference & More

This week's edition of IPD's Canada-China Brief covers Prime Minister Trudeau's?new statements on?Canada joining AUKUS, further intelligence reports noting Chinese and Indian election interference?alongside testimony from the PM,?and more.

First, here is the latest from IPD:

IPD'S ROUNDUP

It’s Time for Canada to Break the CPTPP Accession Logjam

Writing after participation in IPD's Canada-Taiwan Forum on Economic Security last month, IPD Advisor Hugh Stephens and Tim Sargent write that "as the second largest economy in the CPTPP, and as current Chair, Canada has an important role to play in leadership to clear the accession logjam" amid membership bids from China and Taiwan.

Canada-Taiwan Forum on Economic Security in Global News — Beijing is Looking to Improve Relations With Ottawa

Global News quoted remarks from Standing Committee on National Defence?Chair John McKay's keynote at IPD's Canada-Taiwan Forum on Economic Security who stated on Taiwan that "our nation has often failed to take a firm stance on this issue."

TOP STORIES

In Change of Tune, Ottawa Floats Joining AUKUS Security Pact

On the back of Canada's newest Defence Policy Update, Prime Minister Trudeau gave an explicit affirmation of Ottawa's interest in joining?the AUKUS security pact of the United States, UK, and Australia, particularly the grouping's second 'pillar' on joint military technology development.

'Frankly, it's good news' — Speaking to the media, Trudeau directly addressed a question on Canada's entry into the security trilateral:

• "Yes, we are already observers in one of the working groups of pillar two of AUKUS and we have had excellent conversations" with all pact members on "how we can work even closer."
• "Quite frankly, it's good news that both Canada and New Zealand are going to be joined by Japan that is engaging more closely in AUKUS conversations as well... those Canadian conversations with our partners will continue."
• Scott Millar, Assistant Deputy Minister?at the Department of National Defence, spoke to the Stimson Center last month saying Canada's Five Eyes activities already dovetailed with AUKUS but noted that "we were never in the nuclear sub game."
• The news comes as South Korean news agency Yonhap cited a senior U.S. official saying the grouping was "considering a range of additional partners who may bring unique strengths to Pillar 2, including the ROK, Canada and New Zealand, in addition to Japan."
• "Additional partners will only be added with full consensus, however, and through a consultation process that will take some months," though a U.S. diplomat disclosed D.C. was?“pushing really hard to get some things on AUKUS pillar 2 done now, before the U.S. election."

Japan now, New Zealand next??— Mixed messaging on the pact's future membership has stirred debate on which capitals will truly be next in line:

• During a state visit to Washington by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, President Biden revealed that the pact was "exploring how Japan can join our work in the second pillar, which focuses on advanced capabilities, including AI, autonomous systems."
• In an?AUKUS Defense Ministers' Joint Statement two days earlier, defence chiefs stated they had "developed principles and models for additional partner engagement in individual Pillar II projects and will undertake consultations in 2024 with prospective partners."
• Australian?Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking a day after in Canberra, rebuffed the idea of Japan's entry, saying there were "no plans" and that although Tokyo was a "natural partner" for all three partners, "what is not proposed is to expand the membership."
• An anonymous Japanese official noted that "talking about increasing the number of members when nothing’s been achieved with Aukus yet would only disrupt the framework of cooperation that is meant to be its basis."
• U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken recently hosted?New Zealand counterpart Winston Peters in D.C., with the latter downplaying ?entry talks as "premature" and saying that "what they've said is they would like to talk to us about Pillar 2 and what that might mean."

D.C.'s Asia czar links AUKUS to Taiwan?— Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently stirred a storm saying the pact was relevant to Taiwan:

• Speaking to the?Center for a New American Security, Campbell described ?the "practical circumstances in which AUKUS has the potential to have submarines from a number of countries operating in close coordination."
• Specifically, Campbell noted that these joint capabilities "could deliver conventional ordinance from long distances – those have enormous implications in a variety of scenarios, including in cross-strait circumstances."
• Zhu Fenglian, Spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, reacted to the remarks by calling them "very dangerous" and that AUKUS as a whole seeks to "provoke military confrontation in the region through military cooperation."
• Dave Sharma, an Australian opposition MP taking part in a recent parliamentary delegation to Taiwan that had met Tsai Ing-wen, reported that AUKUS had "certainly been of interest to our Taiwanese counterparts."

China issues warnings?— Beijing's officials have characterized talks of new AUKUS members as a step in the wrong direction for the region:

• Chinese defence ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang stated that the grouping "undermined the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and triggered arms races."
• Zhang added that the relevant countries should "refrain from going further and further down the wrong and dangerous path, and refrain from sabotaging international and regional peace and stability to the detriment of their own security interests."
• Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declared that talks of expansion were?"in disregard of the concerns of regional countries and the international community over the risk of nuclear proliferation."
• Mao stressed in a separate press conference that "the real purpose of AUKUS is to incite bloc division and military confrontation through military cooperation based on exclusive circles," criticizing Kurt Campbell's recent remarks on AUKUS and?Taiwan.

What commentators think — Experts across the region have reacted to AUKUS' potential expansion:

• Eugene Lang, former?Chief of Staff to the Minister of?National Defence, observed that "I just don’t know that we're doing anything to get [AUKUS'] attention" and that on military tech,?"Canada has not got any specific money set aside for any of that.”
• University of Ottawa Professor?Thomas Juneau suggested that "it's really normal for AUKUS to bring in Japan before Canada because Japan is not only a much bigger country than we are, but it's right next to China."
• Chen Hong, Director of the Australian Studies Center at East China Normal University, said ?it?is adding "countries that may have conflicts with China, into this small group. The goal is to form a NATO-like alliance in Asia to ultimately serve as a deterrent against China."
• John Blaxland, Professor at Australian National University's?Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, noted that Australia's example?"suggests Canada should get serious about its submarine replacement program" as it can "make a significant contribution."
• Benjamin Barton, Associate Professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia branch, cautioned that "Aukus will struggle to shed its image as an Anglo-Saxon club even if it may harbour designs to develop security structures for a much broader region."

Trudeau Testifies?on Election Interference As Reports Cite?China, India, More

In sworn testimony before the?federal government's inquiry on foreign interference, the Prime Minister answered questions on his knowledge of events during the 2019 and 2021 election campaigns surrounding China. The hearing comes as new CSIS reports outlined new election interference allegations against India and Pakistan.

'Decided by Canadians'?— Trudeau reflected on the elections and talks with intelligence officials, but said the votes were ultimately free and fair:

• On allegations that China was behind supporting buses of Chinese speakers?that had voted in now-departed Liberal MP Han Dong's initial party nomination, Trudeau said he?asked CSIS?"the extent to which they were certain...?and the answers were not clear."
• In both 2019 and 2021, Trudeau said that "while individual officials may well?have expressed a preference or another, the impression we got and consistently would get is that the actual People's?Republic of China would have no —?it just would seem very?improbable that the Chinese government itself would have a?preference in the election."
• He also spoke of the "explosive nature of the media stories stemming from unsubstantiated and uncorroborated?intelligence shared by a leaker" during the outbreak of the interference scandal, adding "there were inconsistencies...?things that were flat out wrong."
• On the other hand, Trudeau expressed that "certainly, in?the case of China, we have seen regularly that many examples?to this Commission that there are clear actions that would amount to or indicate a willingness to engage in foreign?interference."
• "Every briefing I’ve ever got from all my intelligence and security experts is that those elections?were indeed free and fair... despite, yes, attempts by foreign states to interfere, those?elections held in their integrity, were decided by Canadians."

To what extent? — The degree to which interference attempts were impactful enough to warrant greater recommended action is uncertain:

• David Vigneault, former Director of CSIS, stated that "we saw foreign interference during those elections... At the same time, that interference did not amount to have an impact on the integrity of the election."
• A top panel of bureaucrats charged with election interference monitoring at the time of the 2019 elections noted in a newly revealed?report that interference was "directed largely from China, and to a lesser extent from India and Pakistan."
• Karina Gould, then-Minister of Democratic Institutions who had established the panel, testified the threshold for detections of interference to go public was high as too many warnings could endanger the Canadian public's faith in the integrity of elections, adding?"whether they're successful or not" was more important.
• Testimonies and disclosed intelligence reporting further revealed that methods of influence included attempted cash transfers from India and China to preferred candidates without their knowledge and, for the latter, social media misinformation on WeChat.
• Nathalie Drouin, a panel member and now the latest-serving National Security and Intelligence Adviser, testified that "we have seen some foreign interference activities, but we have seen nothing that [impacts]?the rights of Canadians to have a free and fair election."

India, Pakistan under the microscope — The recent inquiry's findings have also shed light on interference from New Delhi and Islamabad:

• On New Delhi, CSIS documents report that Indian "proxy agents" acted via "clandestine provision of illicit financial support to various Canadian politicians as a means of attempting to secure the election of pro-[India]?candidates or gaining influence over candidates."
• These efforts in both 2019 and 2021 were intended to "align Canada’s positions with India’s interests on key issues, particularly with respect to how [India]?perceives Canada-based supporters of an independent Sikh homeland that they refer to as Khalistan.”
• Pakistan, though labelled a "limited foreign interference actor," reportedly acted to "clandestinely affect the selection of and increase support for politicians and candidates who are perceived to be more pro-Pakistan or anti-India."
• Asked directly whether New Delhi and Islamabad should be considered interference actors, Trudeau stated that "we have known for many, many years that many different countries take an interest in... sometimes influencing, sometimes interfering" in Canada.

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

China has an interest in the Arctic. It’s sending icebreakers and ships and buoys. So it does make sense for Canada as an Arctic nation, especially if we’re looking at new naval technologies that will be important to defence... It was very clear to me that Canada has always been welcome to join [AUKUS], but we have to bring something to the table. Canada is very good at certain kinds of Arctic technologies and mapping and artificial intelligence

— Stephanie Carvin , Associate Professor,?Carleton University

In order to achieve its strategic goal of countering China, the US needs to integrate more allies into AUKUS. Therefore, it is predictable that the US will promote staunch allies like Canada and Japan to join pillar two.?In the current situation, both countries have their own calculations for potentially joining AUKUS. Canada may believe that this move could change its marginalization in the US' Indo-Pacific Strategy to some extent.

— Da Zhigang , Director,?Northeast Asia Strategic Research Institute

Canada is the most obvious candidate should the AUKUS partnership be expanded. Canada is a member of the G7group of major economies, with ample capacity to boost its own military strength and to contribute to that of others through its manufacturing and technological strengths and endowment with strategic minerals.

—?Tony Abbott , 28th Prime Minister of Australia

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IMAGE CREDIT:?U.S. EMBASSY AUSTRALIA ?| OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER