Canada-China Brief: Joly confronts Qin on interference, leadership reshuffle in Beijing & more

This week's edition of the Canada-China Brief covers?Joly's exchange with China's Qin Gang?at the G20 over foreign interference allegations,?China's 'Two Sessions'?and new leadership direction, and more.??

First, here's the latest from IPD:

IPD's?Roundup

Canadian Foreign Policy in a Shifting World

For Policy Magazine, Research Fellow Zachary Paikin examines how a changing world order may necessitate Canada to rethink its?foreign policy, also arguing that Indo-Pacific states?"are clear-eyed about Beijing’s intentions and do not need to be warned about its predatory behaviour. Despite their misgivings, they have a nuanced understanding of their own interests."

China Seeks Strategic Balance, Not Global Domination

For The Hill, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham suggests that China's foreign policy today is "nothing more or less than the latest variation on a practice of strategic balancing that began with the founding of the PRC and has continued to evolve as geopolitical conditions have evolved ever since."

Luciano Zaccara for RTVE: Chinese Influence in Middle East Worries U.S.

Speaking to?RTVE on China's brokering of a diplomatic agreement re-establishing ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, IPD Advisor Luciano Zaccara notes (in Spanish) that?not everyone agrees that Beijing has been the main mediator, "although it is the one that has ended up pushing it forward... This influence of China in the Middle East worries the United States a lot."

Will Beijing Provide Military Aid to Moscow and What Can Stop It

For New Voice of Ukraine, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham explains how Beijing has pursued a hedging strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine and Russia while at the same time it has endeavoured to avoid being embroiled in a proxy war with Washington.

Top Stories

Joly confronts China's Qin Gang at G20 amid interference row

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly spoke with her Chinese?counterpart Qin Gang on the sidelines of the?G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in New Delhi. In an?exchange lasting approximately 20 minutes, Joly?confronted?Qin on foreign interference allegations around the most recent federal elections.?

'Direct, firm, and unequivocal'?—?Joly released a?statement?after her meeting with the newly-appointed Foreign Minister:?

• "Canada will never tolerate any form of foreign interference in our democracy and internal affairs by China; we will never accept any breach of our territorial integrity and sovereignty; we will never accept any breach by Chinese diplomats of the Vienna Convention on Canada's soil."
• According to the statement, Minister Joly also "reiterated Canada's firm position on China as outlined in the newly released Indo-Pacific Strategy" as the two also agreed "to keep lines of communication open."

Dismissal and denial —?In response to Joly, Foreign Minister Qin Gang?rebutted?accusations of Chinese interference as a 'fallacy':

• "Qin Gang said the accusation of so-called 'China's interference'?in Canada is utterly groundless and is nothing but unfounded denigration... China has never meddled in other countries' internal affairs and opposes any interference in other countries’ internal affairs."
• "The Chinese Embassy in Canada has abided by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations?and stays committed to promoting China-Canada relations and exchanges and cooperation in various fields. The Canadian side should... prevent rumors and hype from disrupting bilateral relations."
• In a press release,?the Chinese Embassy in Ottawa?called?the allegations "pure slander and total nonsense," adding that Canada should "avoid creating new obstacles and troubles for the development of bilateral relations."

Interference saga continues?—?Several new developments concerning Chinese foreign interference have emerged on the Hill over the past week:

• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau?stated?that would appoint?an Independent Special Rapporteur "who will have a wide mandate and make expert recommendations on combating interference and strengthening our democracy," including on whether a?formal inquiry is advisable.?
• He also?asked?MPs?and Senators in the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians to begin a review of foreign interference in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections and to report its findings to Parliament.?
• Conservative?Leader Pierre Poilievre?expressed?skepticism over the independence of the appointment, stating that the special rapporteur "sounds like a fake job."
• NDP House Leader Peter Julian?stated?that the special rapporteur must be "impeccable" and "cannot be somebody who is considered partisan and cannot be somebody who is not considered independent from the Liberal government."
• The Procedure and House Affairs Committee also?began hearings on Chinese interference with Minister Joly?testifying?that she had denied a suspected?Chinese "political operative" a visa last fall and has repeatedly summoned the Chinese Ambassador?including on interference.

En même temps?—?With?an announcement on?a foreign agent registry and probes into PRC police stations, interference has caught public attention:

• In a public opinion survey, the?Angus Reid Institute?found?that?"two-thirds of adult Canadians expressed the belief that Beijing 'definitely' (32%) or 'probably' (33%) tried to meddle" and that "half of Canadians say this attempted interference represents a serious threat to democracy (53%)."
• The Royal Canadian Mounted Police?stated?that it had launched a probe into two covert police stations believed to be working on behalf of the Chinese government in Montreal and the nearby suburb of Brossard.?
• In a statement, RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier stated that "the RMCP recognizes that Canadians of Chinese origin are victims of alleged activities conducted by these centers."
• In response,?Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning?dismissed?the allegations and?urged the relevant Canadian parties to "stop hyping up?this and discrediting China."
• Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino also?announced?that Canada would hold public consultations to set?up a foreign agent registry, stating that one goal?would be to "foster transparency regarding legitimate foreign state lobbying."
• Entitled the Foreign Influence Transparency Registry, Public Safety Canada?noted?that "consultations with key stakeholders and the Canadian public will inform the path forward, including potential legislation" and that "engaging with individuals and communities most affected is critical."

What commentators think?—?A wide amount of opinion and commentary?has been cast over recent developments:

• Jody Thomas, Canada's National Security Adviser,?cautioned?that "a public inquiry will have the same limitations that the?committee does, in that we cannot talk about national security information in a public forum."
• Li Haidong, a Professor at China Foreign Affairs University,?argued?that Canada's investigations are linked to proving diplomatic coordination with the U.S. as?"Canada is trying very hard to create an unfriendly atmosphere in its society by hyping up negative issues related to China."?
• Stephanie Carvin, an Associate Professor at Carleton University,?speculated?on whether a formal interference inquiry?would be "focused just on China or all the other countries that we know are trying to do this kind of activity as well."
• Artur Wilczynski, a former Assistant Deputy Minister for the Communications Security Establishment, warned?that?a "point-by-point accounting" is unlikely?from the intelligence community as there are?"real consequences of going into that level of detail in an open environment."
• Highlighting record bilateral trade, James Brander, a Professor at UBC's Sauder School of Business,?said?"yes, there are tensions. But economic or trade flows, and economic activity in general isn’t affected very much by?the?political tensions unless there is some explicit policy."

China's Two Sessions sets out new cabinet and policy direction

With China's Two Sessions — or the annual meetings of the?National People's Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) —?in their concluding week,?the country's cabinet takes on new faces and policy objectives.?

Key elections and appointments —?A leadership reshuffle followed Xi Jinping's re-election as President?and Central Military Commission Chairman:

• Li Qiang, ex-Party Secretary of Shanghai, was elevated to succeed?Li Keqiang as China's Premier?and is set to serve a five-year term as Beijing's number two, criticizing decoupling?in his first press conference and?noting?that "encirclement and suppression is in no one’s interest."
• Han Zheng, a former aide to Xi,?has succeeded Wang Qishan as China's Vice-President, with Wang Huning elected as Chairman of the?CPPCC National Committee and Zhao Leji as Chairman of the NPC Standing Committee.
• Top political?appointments?include?Ding Xuexiang, He Lifeng, Zhang Guoqing, and Liu Guozhong as Vice Premiers of the State Council with Foreign Minister Qin Gang joining?Li Shangfu, Wang Xiaohong, Wu Zhenglong, and Chen Yiqin on the country's chief cabinet body.

New policy direction?and goals —?Ex-Premier Li Keqiang?delivered?his last Government Work Report on performance and advised?new?priorities:?

• On development goals, Li set a GDP growth target of "around 5%" for this year?alongside creating?approximately 12 million urban jobs, increasing "both the volume and quality of imports and exports," and reducing energy consumption, particularly of fossil fuels.
• On?work priorities, Li recommended expanding demand, greening?China's development model, reforming state?enterprises while supporting private firms, and "active steps to see China join the CPTPP?and accede to other high-standard economic and trade agreements."
• He also noted that "in adopting industrial policies, we should give consideration to both development and security imperatives" as "scientific and technological policies should aim at building up our country’s strength and self-reliance."
• Looking to national and international goals, Li advised measures to "advance the process of China’s peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, accelerate the implementation of major defence development projects, and to stay committed to "an independent foreign policy of peace."

Institutional reform?—?Reform of the?State Council itself has been in focus as it submitted a?plan?that?adjusts and reshuffles responsibilities in key areas:?

• Faced with "external containment and suppression," the Ministry of Science and Technology?will be restructured to "better allocate resources to overcome challenges in key and core technologies" with a?bigger role in mobilizing the country on technological breakthroughs.?
• China will set up a new National Financial Regulatory Administration?for financial sector oversight under the State Council?while a new National Data Bureau under the National Development and Reform Commission will lead "development of data-related fundamental institutions."
• Xie Maosong, a Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University,?noted?that "Beijing has realised that it needs stronger coordination within the bureaucracy for long-term self-reliance projects like semiconductor development."

What commentators think?—?Scholars have reflected on the path forward for China's foreign policy under the backdrop of?Beijing's leadership meetings:?

• Lü Xiang, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Fellow,?inferred?that?Li Qiang's public comments?suggest?that "as the premier, diplomacy should be a task that serves the economy," particularly as Sino-U.S. relations are now "worse than a zero-sum rivalry."
• Bessma Momani,?Professor at the University of Waterloo,?said?that "China is clearly working to contrast its foreign-policy approach to the United States’ more militarized one," especially in light of its role in reconnecting Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• Scott Kennedy, Senior Advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies,?observed?that "we have not seen the Chinese retaliate in technology for the restrictions that the U.S. has placed" as "China knows that it can’t survive without being connected."
• Henry Gao, Professor at?Singapore Management University,?argued?that "China will take a more confrontational approach with the U.S., as indicated by Xi's remarks at the two sessions where he encouraged everyone to 'dare to struggle'."

What They're Saying

Our challenge with China?is being framed as a security issue —?arguably, however, it is primarily a scientific and an economic one, driven by the current revolution in science and the simultaneous emergence of China as a science superpower, with a knowledge-based economy that rivals that of the Western democracies. That difference in framing produces very different policy responses...?We must not let our concerns about security override the importance of global scientific collaboration, which advances our economic well-being and helps us address the increasingly frequent and daunting global challenges of the 21st century.

—?Alan Bernstein, Distinguished Fellow, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

If Canada continues to follow U.S. foreign policy in this way [on technology supply chain decoupling], when people think of Canada, they will think of a U.S. follower. Such a move would be detrimental to both the improvement of China-Canada relations and Canada's international image.

—?Yao Peng, Deputy Secretary-General, Canadian Studies Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Thank you for reading?IPD's Canada-China Brief!

If you enjoy our work, please consider contributing:

DONATE HERE

NEWSLETTER BY?PETER HUANG?&?JOHNSEN ROMERO

IMAGE CREDIT:?OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER?|?EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT?|?KREMLIN?|?CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS?|?CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS?|?REMKO TANIS