Canada-China Brief: India Fallout over Indo-Pacific Strategy, Interference Inquiry Expansion & More

This week's edition of IPD's Canada-China Brief covers Canada-India fallout over the Indo-Pacific Strategy, growing calls for Ottawa's foreign interference inquiry to include New Delhi alongside Beijing,?and more.

First, here is the latest from IPD:

IPD'S?ROUNDUP

In the Indo-Pacific, Canada Has Core Interests but Weak Clout

Writing as part of IPD’s project Canada’s Interests in a Shifting Order in collaboration with Policy Options magazine, Senior Fellow Jeremy Paltiel writes that Ottawa's Indo-Pacific Strategy "is minimally designed to reassure allies that Canada is on board while signaling to other Asian nations that it wishes to stay in contact."

Le Devoir — Can Canada Still Make Its Mark on the International Stage?

In an op-ed for Le Devoir (in French), IPD Advisor Jocelyn Coulon writes that Ottawa’s promised foreign ministry reforms come at a time when “other Western countries have difficult relations with China, Russia or other powers, but none is in the same position as Canada.”

Canada's Assassination Charge Against India Puts Biden in a Pickle

Quoted in Responsible Statecraft on the Canada-India assassination affair, Senior Fellow Max Abrahms argues that it is “very unlikely that Biden will interject himself in a way that will create any meaningful friction" even as it is "not entirely clear that India will be the ally that the United States wants against China in the Indo-Pacific."

TOP STORIES

Crisis With India Casts Cloud Over Indo-Pacific Strategy

With the role of New Delhi as an alternative partner to Beijing in doubt over another diplomatic row, questions loom over the future of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy as relations with the region’s largest economies reach simultaneous lows.

Cabinet defends India’s strategic value — Ottawa has painstakingly sought to minimize the implications for the Indo-Pacific Strategy:

• In Montreal, Prime Minister Trudeau stated that recent events would not detract from Ottawa’s wish for deepened relations, saying “as we presented with our Indo-Pacific strategy, just last year, we’re very serious about building closer ties with India.”
• “We are moving forward in a thoughtful, responsible way anchored in the rule of law with all of our partners including in our approach to the Government of India.”
• In light of the crisis, National Defence Minister Bill Blair conceded that “we understand that this can be, and has proven to be, a challenging issue with respect to our relationship with India” while reiterating the value of the government’s strategy at large.
• Janice Stein, former Co-Chair of Canada's Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee, noted that the U.S. is “investing a great deal of effort in India as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. It’s not going to allow this to derail that strategy.”

Military cooperation endures — Even as Ottawa and New Delhi have frozen trade talks, security ties continue:

• Major General Peter Scott, Deputy Commander of the Canadian Army, continued to attend the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference in New Delhi, telling the press that both countries “have a role in ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”
• Scott stated that the current row “has no impact on us here at the Indo-Pacific conference. We're really here to build relationships from army to army, and we'll let our governments deal with that issue,” expressing an eagerness for Canada to join further regional training and exercises.
• Indian Major General Abhinaya Rai noted a similarity between Ottawa and Beijing “where we may have had a standoff but we continue to engage them at all levels, be it the military level and at the diplomatic level. And I am referring directly to China here.”
• Colonel Todd Braithwaite, Defence Attaché at Canada’s High Commission in New Delhi, also spoke with media under the backdrop of the conference, vowing that “we will continue our military cooperation. It is not going to impact [defence relations].”
• Speaking at the forum, General Manoj Pande, Chief of India’s Army Staff, stated that participants “are not looking at a military alliance so to speak… This entire exercise initiative is not directed against any country or any group of countries.”

The view from China?— Chinese scholars have underscored how the U.S. and its allies prioritize India’s value vis-à-vis Beijing:

• Reflecting on the diplomatic crisis, Qian Feng, Research Director at Tsinghua University’s National Strategy Institute, argued that in “attempting to develop comprehensive cooperation with India in order to contain China,” the U.S. and its allies have been “willing to turn a blind eye to what they think are India's human rights abuses.”
• Sun Xihui, Associate Research Fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Washington is “reluctant to openly embroil in the row” as it may “disrupt its strategic objective of aligning with India as a counterbalance against China."
• Lan Jianxue and Lin Duo, Asia-Pacific Studies Director and Research Fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, wrote that U.S. policy towards Beijing is “necessitating a conciliatory approach toward India” as it views is as “a high-value partner in forming an anti-China coalition.”

What commentators think — Experts have similarly noted that the crisis is an irritant to more fundamental regional policies:

• Charles-Philippe David, Professor at the University of Quebec, suggested that the current row is a “huge slip-up” that comes as the global order has increasingly pressured Canada to “choose camps and take tougher and firmer positions,” adding that “we must treat international relations and foreign policy with much more seriousness.”
• Michael Bociurkiw, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that “India is the most important counter balance that the West has to China’s ascension as the dominant superpower of the 21st century. That explains why Canada’s main ally, the United States, is sitting resolutely on the sidelines.”
• Stephanie Carvin, Associate Professor at Carleton University, argued that unlike rallying pushback against Chinese interference, “India is a much harder case, because everyone’s trying to woo India right now. And no one wants to risk upsetting that… India is useful [in] countering China and we’re not.”
• Lisa Curtis, Director of Indo-Pacific Security at the Center for a New American Security and former Senior Director for South Asia on the U.S. National Security Council, observed that the White House “sees India primarily through a China prism.” She added that “only if Prime Minister Trudeau releases credible evidence of Indian involvement [in the Nijjar killing] might Biden respond“ as his administration will “seek to limit the fallout and keep relations on a relatively even keel.”

Parliament Back in Session Amid Calls for Expanded Interference Inquiry

In light of New Delhi’s alleged assassination of a Canadian citizen, Ottawa’s public inquiry into foreign interference has faced demands for its lead Judge Marie-Josée Hogue to more explicitly expand beyond China to include India.

House voices on greater inquiry — MPs of all stripes have linked the probe into Chinese interference and the crisis with India:

• New Democrat Leader Jagmeet Singh penned a letter to Justice Hogue requesting that she "include an examination of India's foreign interference," noting that her appointment's terms of reference "may not specifically name India" but are "broad enough."
• Liberal MP Randeep Sarai deemed the killing “an unprecedented act of foreign interference of the highest type” that “should be on the very top of any inquiry” alongside investigations into China.
• Conservative Deputy Leader Tim Uppal suggested that with earlier implementation of the Tories’ proposed foreign agent registration in 2021, “foreign agents working to intimidate, influence and even [assassinate] Canadian citizen could have been stopped.”
• In reaction to questions on the matter, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc argued that “we have always said that foreign interference is not the unique purview of one country” and that Hogue may ”look at all the countries that are seeking to interfere in a way that's against Canadian law."

Sikh Canadians speak up — Canada’s Sikh communities have raised calls for the inquiry’s scope to grow:

• Moninder Singh, spokesman for the British Columbia Gurdwaras Council, stated that “for 40 years, our community has been working to bring foreign interference from India to light,” but underlining “a sense of frustration, as well, as it [took] an assassination of a Sikh leader in a gurdwara for this acknowledgement to happen.”
• Singh separately has demanded “a public inquiry that includes India, along with all other foreign actors, not just India, but anyone that’s interfering in Canada, that needs to be investigated at the highest levels.”
• A report co-published by the Council and the Ontario Gurdwaras Committee earlier this year assessed there was “significant evidence on the record establishing that Indian officials and intelligence operatives have “interfered in electoral processes across the country, and attempted to manipulate Canadian policy makers.”
• It further noted that “Canada’s recent Indo-Pacific Strategy identifies India as a critical partner in achieving its objectives and Indian officials have made explicit comments about ‘cracking down’ on Sikh activism in Canada in a manner suggesting quid pro quo.”

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

India is at centre stage, and it knows its value… India now seems to be leading in a multipolarity hedging path as it navigates between China, Russia and the United States in support of its own interests and as a leader of the so-called Global South. Simply put, Canada cannot afford to lose India. There is too much at stake for the relationship to be subject to the vicissitudes of security politics.

— Deanna Horton, Distinguished Fellow, Munk School of Global Affairs

Much of the critical mineral resources around the world is controlled by China ... We are in a geopolitical universe where China is a trading partner that is probably not as dependable as the countries with whom we share values… Nobody is saying that there is not going to be trade with China, but what we are trying to do is to create diversity of supply so that there is greater security of supply… That is something we are going to do step by step and it is difficult to say when you are going to reach that stable level you feel there is sufficient security, but I would say that will take a number of years.

— Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy & Natural Resources

Neither China nor India is overly concerned about the fallout for their relationship with Canada… Like others, Canada saw India as a counterweight to China in its 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy. Now Canada will need to concentrate on other fast-growth economies in and out of the region.

— Danielle Goldfarb, Distinguished Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

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