Can You Believe This Market!?!?!?!?*

Short update 2/21/20 -- the market ended up having a down year in 2018 before having a big up year in 2019.

Aren't you feeling just over the top super good head in the clouds about your retirement moneys, FRS Investment Plan, DROP, Deferred Comp, 401k, IRA's, Pension Plan, and more?  Smile, pat yourself on the back, high five your spouse, and chest bump your "do it yourself self-proclaimed financial guru" buddy/co-worker! Maybe you are the "do it yourself self-proclaimed investing guru"? Feeling great! Now what?

Our indicators have basically been on a "GREEN LIGHT" all systems go status since the night of the Presidential Election 13 months ago.  We are still in that mode...for now.

Ever heard the expression, “it’s not what you earn, it’s what you keep”?  That was an old Nuveen Tax-Free Bond ad that was really referring about taxes, but it is also true when it comes to investing in stocks and the market.

It is not always what you earn in “UP” markets as much as it is what you DON'T LOSE in “DOWN” markets i.e. what you keep.  

It is look in the mirror be honest time. Should a blip or major downdraft occur in the market (and they always do), what is the downside risk of your current investment strategy? If the market dropped 20%? 30% 50% and your $500,000 dropped to $400,000, $320,000, or $250,000, how would you feel? What would you do?

What would you do if a year from now your $1,000,000 was worth only $800k? $700K? $600k? or $500k?

That happened in 10/07 – 3/09(2008 Financial Crisis) and 3/00 – 10/03 (Tech Bubble, 9/11, etc).  How did you feel back then? And that was when you probably had a fraction of the moneys you have now.

Does your current strategy simply reliant upon "up markets" to make you money or does it pay you while we are going through one of the inevitable downdrafts?

With such a great 2019 market many folks out there are overnight investment experts, doing it themselves, "I can do better, look I just did "X" percent last year...". Everyone is an investment expert all of a sudden. Next thing you know, seemingly everyone you know will be telling you they are now "flipping real estate", "in" real estate, selling real estate, and giving you their real estate business card. Oh wait, that is already happening.

It similar in the investing world. You'll meet fellow employees touting themselves as "do it yourselfers" who tell you "you don't need them, listen to me", etc. 25-30 years of law enforcement and firefighting and now they want you to entrust your DROP and other retirement moneys to them or what they are doing? That might be fine for them, but might NOT be fine for you and yours. In great markets, people get lulled into only thinking about return without much thought to risk. How much risk are they taking to get "X" return? Keep friends friends. Let's talk...

There is an old saying, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."

I might add complacency as well. The good news is we see lots of skepticsim, but we also see lots of optimism, complacency, and a smdigeon of euphoria.

 Thinking of leaving your money with “the state”, “doing it yourself” or “other” – let’s talk first. AND, it doesn’t have to be an all or nothing decision – you could always do some there and some with us. Keep your options open. Let’s talk.

* This article is intended to be an educational ABC's piece and are not promises or guarantees of financial security. While The Second Half Team is working with 500+ First Responders (and more) at 200+ departments/agencies around Florida we are independent of and not affiliated in any way with the Florida Retirement System (FRS) and hence any/all information provided by the Second Half Team has not been approved or endorsed by FRS or any Chapter 175 pension plans/board members/or otherwise. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This article is for informational or client communication purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or invest in any product or service. Investment in any financial instrument can carry significant risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Investors are reminded that investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. This article was written by Mark Burnam prior to joining Swaine & Leidel Wealth Services, LLC, dba the Second Half Team (the "Firm"). You should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of Swaine & Leidel Wealth Services, LLC, dba the Second Half Team (the "Firm") before investing. Information on the Firm and its advisors can be found on SEC's website https://adviserinfo.sec.gov. The CRD number for the Firm is 163454. Investment advice is provided by Swaine & Leidel Wealth Services, LLC, dba the Second Half Team, and SEC Registered Investment Adviser. We are not CPAs or Tax Advisors – you should consult with your CPA or tax advisor regarding your particular tax situation. We are more than happy to discuss with them as well if you so desire. 

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