Can we learn anything from history?

Review of the book "El futuro tiene su historia: El reto de comprender” by Henrique Salas R?mer

The short answer is yes, but perhaps something different from what we expect it to teach us.

This is the conclusion I came to after reading the book called "El futuro tiene su historia: El reto de comprender” (The future has its history: The challenge of understanding) written by the Venezuelan ex-governor, economist and strategic analyst Henrique Salas R?mer, work which I’ll review below.

From my point of view, the main thesis of this book lies in the notion of history as a process that does not repeat itself, but rather as a journey with an unknown but not entirely inscrutable destination, if we analyze the current state of affairs and conditions and project them into the future. The author speaks metaphorically of history as a train that takes humanity on its journey and stops at regular intervals. These stations show a periodicity that does not vary and that the author estimates at roughly 15 years, reflecting the duration of cycles the author has detected in world history since the beginning of the 20th century.

Likewise, and using transcendent and decisive events of the contemporary era as an example, Mr. Salas R?mer informs us that the great historical processes usually have a duration of 30 years or two generational cycles of those we will observe as we travel down history’s tracks.

In this model or theoretical construct, the train is occupied at any given time by people from two different generations (leveraging the concept of the theory of generations put forward by the late Spanish intellectual José Ortega y Gasset, although this idea can perhaps be compared to the notions of generations now common in American culture: baby-boomers, X, Y, millennials, and so on) whose lives overlap during a 15-year cycle in which they coexist and whose positions and actions shape and influence the outcome of the events that occur while they are aboard the train. A key aspect here is that at each stop or station a new generation that has just reached its personal maturity boards the train while at the same time an older age group gets off the train and retires, with each cohort or generation remaining on board for 2 stations or about 30 years in total, which Salas R?mer equates to the duration of overarching historical processes. The writer also relates these stages lasting approximately 30 years with the most productive lifespan of individuals and even with the period of greater transcendence in the political careers of those governing the destinies of open societies.

Within this model, an important part of the author's effort seems focused on seeking empirical support for his vision of history, and this has been achieved by detecting so-called black swan events or tipping points in contemporary history which, due to their unexpected nature and impact, generated a disruption in history’s path and which in this framework are succeeded by milestones that clearly mark the beginning of new historical cycles and processes. What is interesting in this attempt to match the model with the historical evidence, is that the fit is quite adequate and the model is well aligned with the historical data if we follow the book’s timeline which features historical cycles and processes (whose start was signaled by milestones of great importance) which began in 1899 and experienced a changeover every 15 and 30 years, respectively.

Another interesting element mentioned by Mr. Henrique focuses on the notion of the collective unconscious, extrasensory collective communication or the so-called invisible threads that seem to link momentous events that at first glance appear to be totally isolated, unconnected or strictly distinct. He mentions the year 1989 as a concrete case of this concept when important developments occurred in different parts of the world that were not directly linked to each other, yet still showed remarkable similarities. In that year the following important events took place across our planet: the mass protests and gatherings in Tiananmen Square in Beijing and other major cities of China, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe, violent protests, riots and looting called the Caracazo (Caracas upheavals) in Venezuela, as well as the release of Nelson Mandela and the beginning of the end of the apartheid era in South Africa. According to the author, it is possible that these events could be a reflection of the concepts of synchronicity (or rather synchrony) and acausal connections, postulated by the Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung (who in turn based his ideas on concepts taken from the classical Chinese book I Ching or Yi Jing).

Having addressed the main points of the book, I will proceed to mention some interesting facts included in this work. One is that the book centers its timeline and analysis on the events of modern U.S. history, given the emergence of this nation as a major world power in the 20th century and maintaining its leading role until the present day. Examples of historical processes mentioned by the author include: From 1914 to 1944, the Great World War; from 1959 to 1989, the intense or hot phase of the Cold War triggered by the start of the space race; and from 1989 to 2019, the Great Void or unipolar global leadership exerted by the USA.

Furthermore, Henrique Salas R?mer devotes an important portion of his book to depict the events of the modern history in his native Venezuela placed within the broader regional background of Latin America and the world; major highlights of this section include his first-hand testimony of the conspiracy or criminal association of shady interests that aided and abetted Hugo Chávez’ accession to power in that nation, as well as the tragic ending of the latter at the hands of his much admired "protectors". Here I would like to underscore the lucid and enlightening coverage that is dedicated to explaining Fidel Castro’s long-lasting evil influence and perseverance in reaching his malicious purposes, his links with many of the movements and characters that have done the most damage to the inhabitants of the region, including his dealings with Pablo Escobar as well as his leading role in the creation of devious S?o Paulo Forum, whose objective continues to be the subversion of the imperfect but relatively open and free society of Latin American countries after capturing the state (and after that the economy of each nation) by electoral means. Another related point is the Cuban regime's historic and ongoing efforts to promote global alliances of the world's most disparate and dangerous actors united only by their shared hatred of the United States, a practice best exemplified by Cuba's involvement in all sorts of conflicts around the world during the Cold War and now gets off to a fresh start with the Cuban dictatorship's attempts to bring or reproduce conflicts from distant latitudes such as the Middle East into the immediate neighborhood of the United States. The author reflects on this issue by highlighting the so-called triangle of the East that that imaginarily links Moscow, Tehran and Damascus and another triangle with surprisingly coinciding dimensions that would hypothetically connect the US capital, Washington, with the cities of Havana and Caracas and by pointing out the paradox that for quite a long time the United States focused its attention on locations closer to Moscow than on those threats that are much closer to home and pose a more direct threat to its interests and to the progress and stability of the country. Another interesting finding mentioned in the book is the idea that the reimagined version of the invisible Cuban empire (through the previously mentioned S?o Paulo Forum and the pipe dream called Socialism of the 21st century) is something akin to Amazon’s - that is, the American technology company’s - ecosystem applied to the realm of geopolitics (but obviously with evil and crooked intentions) as it also has clients and suppliers to whom the Cuban dictatorship offers multiple services and benefits such as protection, shelter, logistical support as well as situational awareness and knowledge of the situation on the ground which through positive feedback loops increase the efficiency of this "platform". This striking similarity in the brokerage or intermediation strategies, penetration of markets (or societies in Cuba’s case) and eventual dominance adapted by Amazon and Castro's Cuba, could be another evidence of the invisible threads that connect many disparate or assorted events in more ways than meet the eye and that are reflected in the simultaneity/coincidence in the date of appearance of the reimagined Castro empire with the moment of Amazon's take-off in the global digital economy at the onset of the 21st century.

The author clearly establishes that Venezuela is a country stealthily occupied by Cuba, where Nicolás Maduro, without even being a Venezuelan citizen by birth, has seized and usurps the office of president, but is really a servant or puppet of his Cuban patrons. Then, the author compares the current situation in Venezuela to a labyrinthine alliance of diverse interests and mafias that often compete with and hold each other in check, but who are united by their common interest in sustaining the current regime.

Mr. Henrique exposes the cunning, duplicitous and frankly evil role of Juan Manuel Santos in Colombian and Latin American politics that seems to stem from his sympathies and personal ties with the Castro brothers. He also highlights the deleterious influence exerted by Tom Shannon from the various positions he held in American diplomacy and the coincidence of his presence at times when decisions were taken (and/or ominous signals ignored) that had dire consequences for the region. Similarly, Salas R?mer highlights the valuable role played by Mr. Luis Almagro, the secretary general of regional organization OAS in revealing the Cuban invasion of Venezuela, as well as the penetration in Venezuela of all kinds of dangerous and hostile foreign groups with the connivance of the current regime.

The writer also discusses that speculation in commodities, including oil, after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 driven by the lax monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, paradoxically ended up benefiting governments that are inimical or openly hostile to the U.S., such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Similarly, the author states that China's real economic growth is much lower than the official figures published by that country, something that many observers suspect, but few dare to say openly. He, too, is willing to analyze the impact of Donald Trump's administration beyond the media headlines, making it clear that the former president seemed to have the effect of a purgative on US politics. At the time of writing the book in late 2019, Mr. Henrique sensed that Trump could meet the fate of Richard Nixon in the sense of having a good nose for many of his decisions in the international arena, but being undermined by his ineffective management and communication style, as well as by the growing internal polarization in the United States.

In any case, I think it is time to clarify that the widespread claims of possible underhand ties between Trump and the Russian government which frankly overlook the deeper intuition underlying this alleged rapprochement: It seems to me that this could be a strategic move by the past US administration to split Russia from China and thus break or weaken the entente between these two nations (in order to hinder China from gaining unlimited access to Russia's vast natural resources). Thus, I think this is an obvious idea that hasn’t been openly discussed and is therefore little understood by many analysts or commentators.

The author goes on to devote a large part of his chronological narrative to recount the events in which the United States has been involved in the last 120 years since its entry into the global scene up to the present day. As a reader, I can only confirm that this nation stands at a crossroads, possibly as a result of what the author calls the Great Void (that is, the absence of a great power to rival the US). This can be felt in the current political situation of the country, where there is an inability (or unwillingness) to understand the challenge posed by the rise of China, not so much due to the latter’s economic and technological prowess but because of the dictatorial nature of the Asian nation’s government, which is trying to present itself as a supposedly effective and fairer alternative to the republican, democratic and capitalist model of the freer and more open nations. Likewise, I have the impression that the United States has reached a level of division not seen since Ronald Reagan's presidency before the fall of communism and this is not mainly due to the conflictive and controversial discourse of politicians and the echo chamber nature of social networks, but is a reflection of the almost irreconcilable positions and values of two large segments of the American population that makes it difficult to find consensus on common goals to achieve and the direction the country should follow.

The writer asserts that the milestones of contemporary history coincide with practically exact and invariable precision with the cycles or generational intervals lasting 15 years (and with the thirty-year long historical processes) first proposed by Ortega y Gasset. That is why he thinks it is critical that we understand the generational mathematics of history, for if we know the duration of a new historical process just as it begins, then there would be many things we could anticipate or predict in advance.

There will be surely be doubts among critical readers about the empirical basis of the tenets of this book. Some will question on what criteria the author bases the exact duration of the generational cycles, their starting dates or how to account for the population cohorts that reach maturity in years different from those when the milestones or tipping points of recent history occur, among other possible objections to what has been described until this point. Here it is necessary to clarify that this is not an academic work in which the author has set out to establish the validity of his model or hypothesis by means of correlation coefficients or significance levels. Nevertheless, I believe that the general framework of his proposal is consistent and cohesive, and the specific objections can be reviewed, adjusted or optimized as needed. A decisive factor for me is that the author has based his model on his personal experience of being involved in national and international strategic analysis and politics. So, this model has been fine-tuned to show good fit with the historical evidence and the author has been willing to test his model empirically when at the time of publishing the book in August 2019, he took on the challenge of stating that the expected milestone that would initiate a new historical cycle should occur in that same year or on an nearby date. The emergence of the Wuhan/Covid virus in late 2019 or early 2020 could be the fuse, spark or the decisive milestone that was awaited and seems to confirm the accuracy of his estimates, while the increasingly strong tensions between China and the United States would symbolize the completion of the historical process the author labelled the Great Void or unipolar world that began in 1989 with the end of the Cold War and has probably ended by now.

Something I definitely appreciate about this book is that despite the fact that Mr. Salas R?mer has been involved in active politics for a long time, he, unlike many other officials, does not restrict himself to merely recounting his experiences or personal anecdotes from his long professional career, but rather tries to share the lessons learned, as well as the mental framework he uses to analyze and contextualize the events and trends he observes.

Another lesson that I take away from reading this book is that world history is not a tale of great power rivalry that repeats itself over and over again with different actors in a never-ending and vicious circle, but rather a chequered tale (or a bumpy ride), where we can know when important changes, critical or disruptive moments will occur and new historical processes will begin with a predictable periodicity, even though the destination of that journey remains difficult to glimpse or forecast.

I conclude by stating that in my (not very novel or creative) opinion we can say that we come across a great written work if it encourages thinking and conjures up new approaches and ideas even if we do not agree with everything that is stated therein or the conclusions it reaches. Under this criterion and due to the breadth of topics that it deals with in an interesting and intelligent fashion, I assert that the work of Mr. Henrique Salas R?mer is undoubtedly an excellent book. It only remains for me to recommend to him to consider publishing an English version of this book as soon as possible in order to present his ideas to a wider audience.