Can Wave Theory help to shed light on current supply chain issues?
Sheldon M. Rose
Simplifying Supply Chains, Elevating Value, Transforming Strategies.
The following is a thought experiment only, I have no justifications for the opinions below, this is a straight up what if?
The supply of and demand for global supply chain capacity coexists in a balanced way. Demand and supply for supply chain capacity utilize the same resource at the same time, however the cycles are out of phase. This phase difference is best explained by the principle of Demand Latency posited by Lora Cecere in her book Supply Chain Metrics that Matter.
She defines Demand Latency as the time it takes to trigger the order replenishment from a downstream partner based on an order-reorder point, put simply it's the time lag between demand and supply. Normally, with the exception of a few industries supply trails demand as fulfilment isn't real time.
As long as demand and supply are out of phase their cumulative impact on supply chain capacity is minimized due to the destructive interference effects. The opposite is however true when the phases are in sync resulting in constructive interference and an oversized demand for supply chain capacity.
The constraints currently being experienced in global supply chains have resulted in an imbalance to the normal out-of-phase behaviour of supply and demand for supply chain capacity, it has essentially increased the logistical lead time by constraining the transportation resources, ships, containers, trailers, chassis, port and warehouse throughput.
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If the logistical lead time (days) is greater than the demand latency (days) then the interference will be constructive and lead to a higher than normal demand for supply chain capacity as illustrated above by the yellow line. If the demand latency greater than the logistical lead time then it will result in a destructive interference and supply chain capacity will exceed the demand for capacity.
I believe that we have to look at how leading metrics that drive scenarios can be better utilized in order to predict certain outcomes. By monitoring leading metrics that drive supply chains we can improve our response to potential threats.
What are your thoughts? Can an understanding of Wave Theory fundamentals help us to create leading metrics that will help to predict global supply chain constraints? How can we use this information to improve service levels, resource allocation, etc.?
Please share your thoughts.
Simplifying Supply Chains, Elevating Value, Transforming Strategies.
3 年Nicolas Vandeput - does it have legs?
Ph.D. Candidate @ UT | Industrial Engineering
3 年Insightful! Thanks for sharing.
Educator & Business Consultant: Business Development|CyberSecurity|Enterprise Technology|Supply Chain Logistics
3 年good discussion opportunity.
Founder and CEO| Business Strategist| Logistics and Supply Chain Management Consultant| Philanthropists
3 年Very useful.. what of a combination of logistical lead time and supplier fullfillment effectiveness (%)?
International Business , logistics, import and export.
3 年Thanks for sharing