CAN THE UK EVER REALLY BECOME A CONTENTED EU MEMBER ?
John Bruton
Non Executive Director at Ingersoll Rand, Irish Diaspora Loan Origination Fund and CEPS
https://www.johnbruton.com/2015/09/if-uk-gets-acceptable-eu-deal-will-it.html
I have the post here on my website www.johnbruton.com
It concerns the risk of the UK Referendum deciding to take the UK, including Northern Ireland and Scotland out of the EU.
Referenda are inherently unpredictable for the reasons I set out.
But there is a bigger risk.
Those on the EU side ,negotiating the terms of the deal that would be put before the UK voters in the Referendum, may calculate that, even if the result is a "Yes" to continuing membership, it will not be the end of the matter.
They may assume that the UK will keep coming back afterwards for more concessions on the same topics, every time an EU Treaty has to be revised for any purpose (something that requires unanimity of all 28 states).
If that is their view, they will incline to hold back some concessions. As a consequence, the final result of the negotiation may not satisfy British expectations.
So the UK's attitude to the future of the EU and to the revision of its Treaties, needs to be dealt with upfront in the forthcoming negotiations.
The negotiations need to be strategic, not merely tactical.