Can tilapia still stabilize the world fish market?

The latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) shows that the global tilapia market has remained relatively stable despite a slowdown in production in major producing countries. China and Egypt are facing supply stagnation due to rising costs, while other producers such as Brazil are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share.

Global tilapia trade volumes remained stable in the first half of 2023, but production in China, Egypt and some Latin American countries was lower than expected. These countries are struggling with high costs and fluctuating demand, resulting in lower export prices compared to 2022. At the same time, tilapia producers in Southeast and South Asia, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are increasing supply, which has a positive impact on the industry.

Speaking at the Global Seafood Alliance Responsible Seafood Summit, Rabobank analyst Gorjan Nikolik predicted that global tilapia production will reach 7 million tons in 2024. He stressed that despite the production slowdown in some key countries, the tilapia industry has maintained a growth rate of 5.4% from 2010 to 2021.

China remains the world's largest supplier of tilapia, despite challenges such as typhoons, declining stocking rates and rising feed costs. Indonesia, the second largest producer, is mainly focused on the domestic market, but plans to increase exports are underway. Egypt,?Africa's largest and the world's third-largest producer, plans to produce more than 3 million tonnes by 2025, despite economic difficulties such as inflation and foreign exchange shortages.

Colombia expects tilapia production to fall by 5% this year due to a disease outbreak, leading to increased biosecurity measures. In addition, China's tilapia exports to the United States decreased slightly, but trade with countries such as Cote d 'Ivoire, Denmark, Turkey and Malaysia increased significantly.

The US market is generally weak under inflationary pressure, and tilapia imports are down year-on-year. In the first half of 2023, the United States imported a total of 86,500 tons of tilapia valued at $326 million, down 7 percent in volume and 15 percent in value compared to the same period last year. Imports of frozen whole tilapia, however, were up 12 percent year on year.

The report also notes that global tilapia prices have recovered heading into the summer, although the Chinese tilapia market declined in the second quarter of 2023. The price of 300-500 grams of whole live tilapia in Guangdong Province, China, was 5.98 yuan ($0.85) per kg from April to June 2023, down 8 %?from the first quarter and down 26 %?year-on-year. U.S. frozen fish fillet import prices fell 21 %, while fresh fish fillet prices rose 7 %?from the second quarter. In Brazil, fresh fish fillets reached the highest average FOB price of $6.63 / kg in the second quarter, surpassing even frozen fish fillets of $6.47 / kg.

Although the global tilapia industry faces multiple factors such as increasing costs, fluctuating market demand and production challenges, the overall outlook for the industry remains promising. Many countries and regions are actively adjusting their strategies to adapt to market changes and seek new development opportunities. Global tilapia production is expected to increase by 2024, providing consumers with more high-quality options.