Can renewable developers do anything about election uncertainty?

With Election Day just a few days away, uncertainty in the renewables sector feels more intense than ever. Many renewable developers find themselves in limbo, with projects on hold as investors try to “wait and see” what happens.??

Many folks I’ve spoken to in the industry are laser-focused on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its implications for project funding.?

This makes sense, given that utility-scale projects require serious capital, often hundreds of millions of dollars.

But outside of funding, are there implications in the broader renewables landscape? Yes, and they could be game-changers. In 2024 and beyond, impacts could play out for renewable developers across three main areas:?

• interconnection issues
• environmental policies
• community sentiment?

When we look at these broader issues, we see that volatility and uncertainty are part of the game—and likely won’t go away just because a winner is announced.

Fortunately, there are some things we can control. So today, I’ll explore each of these areas and shed light on how Transect is helping developers alleviate uncertainty.

Takeaway #1: Recognize that grid capacity and interconnection will be an issue under either administration

The first of these issues is interconnection. And as developers know, it’s a major bottleneck in addressing our energy needs.?

According to the Department of Energy’s National Transmission Needs Study, as of April 2024, over 2.2 terawatts of capacity are stuck in interconnection queues—about 1.7 times the size of the current U.S. grid-scale generation fleet. We need to address these issues to meet energy demands by 2035, which likely requires a nearly 60% increase in transmission capacity.

A new administration could either ease some of these bottlenecks or slow down capacity expansion. Harris may continue the Biden administration’s policies, as with the recent $2 billion investment in grid protection and capacity expansion through the Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships (GRIP) program. Trump’s administration, in contrast, may deprioritize clean energy grid modernization.?

However, it’s likely interconnection challenges will stick around for years.

At Transect, we know that no administration has a magic wand for capacity issues, so we’re working on helping developers tackle this issue from an information standpoint. This year, we’ve added features to Transect’s site assessment platform that give developers a quick take on transmission capacity available at substations near their project.?

We can’t solve the capacity problem with one election. Still, developers should at least have visibility to make informed decisions on site selection and speed up project movement through the queue.

Takeaway #2: Stay on top of potential environmental policy impacts

The second big impact—one that deserves more attention from developers—is potential changes to environmental policies.?

In my 18+ years working as an environmental consultant and building Transect, we’ve seen some pretty dramatic swings in environmental regulations. These swings have gotten bigger as polarization has increased.

Take the Clean Water Act as an example. In 2015, in response to two Supreme Court decisions, Obama introduced the Clean Water Rule. While he had his reasons for the legislation, this change to long-standing environmental policy kicked off a boxing match between administrations.?

Most recently, this resulted in the?Sackett vs. EPA Supreme Court ruling, which, on one hand, loosens permitting regulations but, on the other, leaves developers and officials in the lurch about what else might change.

We’ve also seen similar fluctuations with other environmental issues, like endangered species listings.?

Even though the Endangered Species Act was originally passed in 1973 with bipartisan support, when it comes to new endangered species listings, Democratic administrations tend to be more aggressive than Republican administrations. On average, Democratic administrations have listed 42 new species per year, compared to 22 new species per year for Republican administrations. Trump, it turns out, has had the lowest annual number of listings out of all presidents.

No doubt, part of this swing in environmental policy shifts is due to the fact that climate change discussions have heated up over the last 15 years. Since climate has historically been a partisan issue in the U.S., presidents seem to feel compelled to take strong stances on environmental policies.?

As long as environmental issues continue to be polarized, we should understand and accept that environmental policies are likely to change with new governance, on the federal, state, and even county levels.??

Also, a one-time environmental site assessment can no longer be relied upon, since regulations can and do change, and renewable projects may sit in queue for years.?

At a minimum, it’s prudent for developers to seek regular policy updates from federal and state agencies and local regulators.?

Better yet, developers can partner with Transect for faster site assessments that provide visibility into federal, state, and local regulations. And soon, they can stay informed with new species listings and permitting updates using our new feature, Project Monitor. With this new capability, customers using Transect can more easily track land-related policy changes and permitting requirements that could affect the viability of their pending projects.?

Whether you use Transect or another method, it’s crucial for developers to stay on top of the changing environmental landscape so they can make sure they’re placing wise bets.

Takeaway #3: Keep your ear to the ground for community sentiment shits.

Beyond policy and regulatory changes, community support or opposition can make or break a renewable project. While a pro-clean energy administration could boost project development, these projects can backfire without community engagement.?

In June 2024, The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law released a report showing that local restrictions on renewable energy projects have jumped 16% in the past year, with contested projects up by 27%. Not surprisingly, there’s a significant overlap between counties with contested projects and those with the most projects.

Pushback isn’t a given, though. Skilled communicators at the federal and local levels may be able to help frame projects positively to appeal to rural values—for example, using land as a revenue source, which is a priority for landowners in my own state of Texas.?

Either way, in the months and years after the election, developers should keep an ear to the ground for potential local sentiment changes. Transect’s AI-powered tool Solar Pulse can help with this task, equipping developers to identify potential local opposition during site selection.

If developers stay on top of these shifts, they can choose sites in communities that are more receptive to their projects, or prepare for significant community engagement efforts.

Uncertainty is inevitable, but we aren’t powerless

While tax credits and project funding are incredibly important, renewable developers and their partners should consider related impacts.

Hopefully, for all our sakes, the election outcome will bring some clarity to these and other issues.

But, we should also recognize that due to our current polarized environment and the nature of the renewables industry, some uncertainty is unavoidable—and it will likely stick around long after the election wraps up.

At Transect, we’re coming alongside renewable energy developers, their EPCs, financiers, and consultants as they handle these challenges. By design, our platform provides insights into developers’ top three project concerns: interconnection, community sentiment, and permitting, helping navigate clean energy project bottlenecks.?

I can’t make any promises about the election outcome or its impacts. But deeply understanding your project site may help you sleep better at night.