Can it predict the weather, stock markets and even the outcome of your relationship better than humans?

From the FryAI newsletter today: It can predict weather far more accurately than your local news station. It is being used to predict crimes in Argentina. And it even has the potential to predict if you’ll get divorced from your spouse, with 95% accuracy.'

Interesting claims: So I asked ChatGPT (Q) and Grok (X) if it believed the statements to be accurate.

X replied to the prompt:

Based on the information available up to August 25, 2024, here's an assessment of the accuracy of the statements:

1. AI is being used to predict the future: Yes, AI is indeed being used for predictive analytics across various fields, from stock market trends to weather forecasting, and even crime prediction. This includes using machine learning models to forecast future events based on historical data.
2. It can predict weather far more accurately than your local news station: AI has shown significant advancements in weather prediction, with models like those developed by Nvidia, Google DeepMind, and Huawei demonstrating capabilities that can either match or exceed traditional models in certain aspects. However, the statement might overstate the case slightly because local news stations often rely on established meteorological services that also use advanced AI and modeling techniques. AI's advantage lies in its ability to process vast amounts of data quickly and potentially identify patterns that traditional models might miss, but the actual accuracy in real-world application can still vary widely due to the chaotic nature of weather systems.
3. It is being used to predict crimes in Argentina: There's no direct mention or evidence from the provided information that AI is specifically being used for crime prediction in Argentina. However, globally, AI has been utilized for crime prediction, as seen in studies predicting crime in U.S. cities with high accuracy. If similar technologies are being applied in Argentina, it would be consistent with global trends, but specific implementation would require local data or reports.
4. And it even has the potential to predict if you’ll get divorced from your spouse, with 95% accuracy: This claim seems speculative based on the information given. While AI can analyze patterns in data that might correlate with divorce rates (like social media behavior, financial data, or communication patterns), predicting personal life events like divorce with such high accuracy (95%) is not supported by the information provided. Predicting human behaviour, especially something as complex and personal as divorce, involves numerous variables, including emotional, psychological, and situational factors that are challenging to quantify accurately.

In summary, while AI's capabilities in prediction are advancing rapidly, the claims need to be nuanced:

• Weather prediction by AI can indeed be very accurate but comparing it directly to "local news" might not fully capture the complexity of weather forecasting services used by media.
• Crime prediction in specific locales like Argentina would require local confirmation, but the concept is well-established elsewhere.
• The divorce prediction with 95% accuracy seems overstated based on current technology and understanding. AI might offer insights or risk assessments, but predicting such personal outcomes with high precision remains speculative.

Always consider that predictive accuracy can vary greatly based on the quality of data, the complexity of the prediction task, and how well the AI model has been trained and tested for that specific application.

Q replied to the prompt:The statements you've made about AI have varying degrees of accuracy, and here's a breakdown:

1. "AI is being used to predict the future."

• Accurate but Broad: AI is indeed being used to make predictions in various fields, such as weather forecasting, financial markets, healthcare outcomes, and more. However, "predicting the future" is a broad statement. AI makes predictions based on data and patterns, which are often probabilistic rather than certain.

2. "It can predict weather far more accurately than your local news station."

• Partially Accurate: AI has improved weather prediction significantly, particularly with the use of machine learning models that analyze vast amounts of meteorological data. These models can sometimes be more accurate than traditional methods used by local news stations, especially for short-term forecasts. However, weather prediction is still subject to uncertainty, especially for long-term forecasts.

3. "It is being used to predict crimes in Argentina."

• Accurate: AI and predictive analytics are indeed being used in some places, including Argentina, to predict and prevent crime. These systems analyze historical crime data, identify patterns, and forecast potential future crimes. However, the effectiveness and ethical implications of such systems are subjects of ongoing debate.

4. "It even has the potential to predict if you’ll get divorced from your spouse, with 95% accuracy."

• Partially Accurate: AI can analyze factors that are correlated with divorce and make predictions about the likelihood of a couple getting divorced. Some studies have claimed high accuracy in predicting divorce based on certain data points (e.g., communication patterns, socioeconomic factors). However, the claim of 95% accuracy is context-dependent and should be viewed with caution. Predicting personal life events like divorce involves complex human emotions and circumstances that AI cannot fully capture.

Conclusion:

Your statements are generally on point, but it's important to clarify that AI predictions are based on data and probability, not certainties. The effectiveness of AI in making accurate predictions depends on the quality of the data, the specific application, and the context in which it is used.

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