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The United States head to the polls in November 2024 with two candidates in play: a) Donald Trump b) Kamala Harris

Here is excellent view on policies by 满地可银行

Here’s how things currently stand, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP):

The latest polls have Harris averaging a 1.8 ppt lead in national popular opinion over GOP nominee Donald Trump. In contrast, the Democrats had persistently trailed the Republicans before July 21. Of course, what matters is winning at least 270 of the 538 electoral college votes up for grabs [1] .
Trump is currently garnering 219 electoral college votes and Harris has 208, based on states in which the candidate is leading (solidly), is “likely” to win, or the region “leans” that way (RCP’s designations). This leaves 111 votes as “toss ups”, a group that includes the so-called battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Currently, Trump and Harris are each leading in three of the seven battleground states, and there’s one tie. However, all leads are falling within the polls’ margins of error. Prior to July 21, Trump was ahead in all seven battlegrounds, and, in some cases, exceeding the polls’ margins of error.
The current standings in the 100-seat Senate are Democrats 47, Republicans 49, and Independents 4 (who caucus with the Democrats), giving the Democrats a slim one-seat majority. There are 33 seats being contested along with one (off-cycle) special election (in Nebraska). Among the 34 total, 20 are currently held by Democrats (three not seeking re-election), four are held by Independents (two not seeking re-election), and 10 are held by Republicans (two not seeking re-election).
Based on seats that are considered “safe”, or where a party is “likely” to win or the region “leans” that way (again, RCP’s designations), the Republicans are currently getting to 50 with the Democrats at 46. There are four seats tagged as toss ups, all held by Democrats. The Democratic candidate is currently leading in three of the four contests. At this point, it’s looking like a slim one-seat Senate majority for the GOP.
The current standings in the 435-seat House of Representatives (218 needed for a majority) are Republicans 220 and Democrats 212, along with three vacancies (previously held by two Democrats and one Republican). All seats are contested. Another poll aggregating firm, 270toWin, currently has the Republicans at 209 and Democrats at 205, with 21 seats considered a toss up (11 held by Republicans, 10 held by Democrats). The House race is very close.

Then it comes to fiscal policy, the differences between the two candidates and their parties are diametric. Vice President Harris and the Democrats have no problem increasing both spending and taxes, relying on the latter more than restraining outlays to control the deficit. As we saw with the American Rescue Plan Act (2021), spending priorities won’t be deterred by deficit concerns. By contrast, Donald Trump and the Republicans are inclined to cut taxes and constrain spending, with the latter being the main channel for budget control. As we saw with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017), tax priorities trump deficit concerns. Enacting legislation that emphasizes these stark policy differences requires a trifecta (a party winning the White House and control of both congressional bodies). Before July 21, the GOP appeared to have the greater chance of achieving a trifecta, but since then the odds have been ebbing.

Source - 满地可银行 - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/3410a2b8-6b13-45d7-87ec-2c045598742a/

Here is my latest look at US Congress Budget office fiscal report - Blog – CBO – Fiscal Gap – July 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/congression-budget-office-fiscal-update-july-2024-paul-young-bbhqc/

The fiscal cycle is key as are the economic policies. Here is my latest report on the United States - Monthly Report – United States – August 2024 - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/monthly-report-united-states-august-2024-paul-young-rjxec/

During the week of August 26, 2024 is when Kamala Harris did her first interview with Dana Bash CNN

Oil and Gas

Kamala Harris has flip flop on many policies areas including fracking. Politicians can change their position when they feel pivot is required for many reasons like economic growth or environmental or energy security. ?

Blog – Global Oil Demand and China’s Slow Down - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/what-next-china-oil-demand-economic-outlook-august-2024-paul-young-1tmcc/

Source - United States Government

Kamala talked during her interview that people have suffer for the past 10 years especially the middle class - https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/29/politics/kamala-harris-tim-walz-cnntv/index.html CNN "Instead, she reiterated her focus on strengthening the economy: “First and foremost, one of my highest priorities is to do what we can to support and strengthen the middle class.”

3 1/2 of the past 10 years were under Biden and her watch - https://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/commentary/middle-class-incomes-surging-thanks-trump-policies

I am all for a debate if those debates are about the facts.

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Paul Young CPA CGA (1996)

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Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager that has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industry and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.

[email protected]

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