Can Kamala beat Trump?

Make no mistake, Kamala Harris is the most natural fit to succeed Joe Biden. As Vice President, the line of succession goes to her; not to mention the poor optics should the Democrats pass over her candidacy.

But Joe Biden stepped down for one clear reason, he could no longer confidently beat Donald Trump come November. So with just three months to the election, the question remains, can Harris win??

Here are some of the top arguments as to why she just might:

Trump was gearing up for the wrong campaign?

The timing of Joe Biden’s departure coincided with the end of the Republican National Convention where most of the air time went to hailing Trump and condemning the sitting president. The day Biden stepped down, Republicans had at least three pieces of material ready to attack him. However, with Biden out of the picture the Republicans missed a vital moment in which to step up attacks on Kamala Harris. She featured very little during the convention and this now looks like a missed opportunity to get Republican messaging on the same page. It’s no surprise that Trump immediately called for campaign funds to be 'reimbursed for fraud'.?

Secondly, selecting J.D Vance as a running mate was a move made by a campaign that thought it was waltzing to the White House. Biden seemed weak and the pick was meant to shore up core support with white-middle class voters who may have had some concerns over Trump’s age. Now, Vance is looking closer to a liability given awkward gaffes such as the speech in which he bizarrely stated Democrats would call him racist for drinking Mountain Dew. Vance is also suffering from record low polling which may bring Trump down with him. So now, Trump needs to simultaneously overcome Vance’s apparent drag while pivoting his attacks amid a real fight for media attention from Harris, the new kid on the block.?

Harris has access to a considerable war chest?

Harris has been able to hit the ground running with her campaign. As part of the Biden-Harris ticket she has been able to roll over existing funds from Super PACs. The Biden campaign had $240 million cash on hand at the start of the campaign which will now be transferred for her use. Furthermore, with support coalescing behind Harris from both the Democrats and key supporters including the Obama’s and George Clooney, the Democrats had their strongest day of funding raising $81 million in the first day of her campaign alone. All of the cash that had - in the waning days of Biden’s campaign - been withheld, will now flow freely into Harris’s war chest.?

Social media to the win?

The Harris campaign has embraced social media wholeheartedly. Pop star Charli XCX showed her support by tweeting "kamala IS brat" referencing her new album. The term, in Ms. XCX’s words, refers to “that girl who is a little messy and likes to party and maybe says some dumb things sometimes, who feels herself, but then also maybe has a breakdown, but kind of parties through it”. The appellation is a crucial endorsement for Harris who will have to appeal to many Gen Z voters heading to the polls for the first time. For their part, Harris’s team jumped on this immediately, re-branding her account to Kamala HQ which sports a lime green background in the font of Charli XCX's Brat album cover. Furthermore, outtakes of an old speech Harris made have gone viral based on a section on what her mother used to say to her, “I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people. You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you."? Tiktok videos featuring the audio have racked up millions of views, with memes of coconut trees abound. This enthusiasm may be transferring to the polls with more Democratic voters now feeling strongly motivated to vote than Republicans, by 27 per cent to 24 per cent. And with polling now effectively tied between the two candidates, she looks best positioned to take the Democrats to a win this November.?