Can India achieve 10%+ growth rate per annum? If yes, how?

Yes, yes, yes. Without a magic wand, too.

I don’t want to postulate ideal conditions. Chances of them occurring are always low. I want to suggest a path that has a good chance of working. Remember 1991? Not too much changed in India, but the economy took a new path.

There will always be debate about economic policies. So, I want to stay above this detailed discussion - focus on the big picture. So, this is what I want. Not easy - but no too hard either.

  1. Maintain internal harmony. We don’t need a North-South divide based on trying to make Hindi required of everyone. We don’t need politicians promoting and provoking religious and caste strife. We cannot get rid of traditional identities in elections, but after the elections are over, the government should treat all equally. This will allow India to focus on economic growth. Not a major new issue.
  2. Focus on China and strengthen India’s status/position with its neighbors. I am not asking for peace with Pakistan - that is asking for too much. Anyhow, it depends equally on Pakistan, But, India should stop being highly bugged by Pakistan and focus on China as the major future threat. In response, India should strengthen its position with its other neighbors. I sometimes feel like I am one of the few people saying this.
  3. Tell India that the CMs must do a better job. The Prime Minster is the head of the Union government. [Legally, there is no such job as ‘Prime Minister of India.’ Rather, India has a Prime Minister. And India has Chief Ministers.] Many, many things fall under the domain of the Chief Ministers. Instead of saying “I will do it all,” the PM must explain to Indians that they need to pressurize their CMs if they want India to progress quickly. Thus is a key missing piece of the puzzle. Unless the CMs of large States shape up, India cannot grow quickly. Too many of them have their eyes on divsive social issues, not on economic growth.
  4. Build India’s infrastructure. We are lagging far behind China. Some parts of the infrastructure are controlled by CMs. Make the people understand that. Other parts are controlled by the PM. For example, the Railways. They need to be upgraded to be safer, faster, and more comfortable. There is some progress on this. It just needs to be speeded up. And, in the power sector, unless the CMs shake up the discoms (distribution companies) thoroughly, including management, schemes run by the Union government will not be enough.
  5. Upgrade the education system. Without an education system that teaches students to think for themselves, India is constraining its growth. The modern world is about quick change. Yes, we do manage some change even with the current education system. Imagine where we would be with a better education system. The CMs have a major role in this. They run the majority of elementary schools. They are doing a very bad job.

Of course, there are other things. What about ending corruption? Reforming the administrative system? And so on. All important. But, I want to lay out a core agenda that India surely must follow in order to hit 10+ real GDP growth for 10 years or more. Technology, money - they will come if the economic and political environment is right.

KENNEDY NYAMBATI

Director, Capacity Building & Technical Assistance at Government of Kenya

5 年

Yes it can

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