Can the first year of mass production of sodium batteries come as planned?

Two years ago, CATL used a press conference to trigger the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries. The sodium-ion batteries that have been accompanying it have also ushered in the pursuit of capital and industry. Industry insiders also generally believe that this year will be the "first year of mass production of sodium batteries."

But two years later, sales of sodium-ion batteries seem to be lower than expected. Although many battery companies have announced that their sodium-ion batteries will start mass production this year, currently only a few models such as Chery iCar, Sihaohua Fairy, and Jiangling Group New Energy EV3 are equipped with sodium-ion batteries.

So many people in the industry are asking: Why are sodium-ion batteries not as popular as expected? Can 2023, the first year of mass production of sodium-ion batteries, still come as scheduled?

01

cost advantage or not

As we all know, sodium-ion batteries have attracted attention from the industry chain and have developed rapidly, perhaps because of the previous panic of skyrocketing lithium prices and tight lithium resources.

In recent years, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, the market demand for lithium batteries is very strong. Lithium salt, as a core raw material, is in short supply due to its scarcity. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from about 40,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2020 to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022.

In order to reduce costs and bring down the price of pure electric vehicles, car companies have set their sights on "sodium-ion batteries" as a "substitute" for lithium batteries.

However, after entering 2023, due to the dual factors of weak demand and increasing supply, the price of lithium carbonate fell off a cliff, from the price of 568,000 tons to 174,000/ton. In May, the price of lithium carbonate rebounded, but it was almost "cut in half" from its previous high

This also puts sodium-ion batteries, which have returned to the field of view due to their cost advantages, in an embarrassing situation. The market is generally worried about whether sodium batteries can still serve as a "lithium battery replacement" as the price of lithium carbonate falls.

Market participants' concerns are not without trace. Zheshang Securities once calculated that when the price of lithium carbonate drops to 200,000 yuan/ton, the material cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is equivalent to that of sodium batteries. Recently, Zhao Ruirui, deputy director of Yiwei Lithium Energy Central Research Institute, said that when the price of lithium carbonate reaches below 150,000 yuan/ton, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries disappears compared to lithium-ion batteries with higher energy density. .

Some people in the industry pointed out that although the cost of sodium-ion batteries is theoretically much lower than that of lithium-ion batteries, sodium batteries have not yet been implemented on a large scale, and the cost of samples cannot be compared with the cost of mass production. From an industrial chain perspective, sodium-ion batteries currently do not have a cost advantage over lithium-ion batteries.

If the price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries may disappear compared to lithium-ion batteries with higher energy density, and the popularization of sodium batteries will be out of the question.

02

There's still a long way to go

Cost reasons aside, sodium-ion batteries still have a long way to go in terms of maturity.

In fact, lithium batteries and sodium batteries basically started at the same time in the 1970s, and their working principles are also very similar. Lithium-ion batteries have long been popular in the fields of mobile phones, computers and new energy vehicles, but sodium-ion batteries did not have commercialization until 2015.

This is mainly because: although sodium-ion batteries perform better than lithium-ion batteries in terms of safety and low-temperature performance, compared with the latest lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries have lower energy density and inferior performance.

At present, the energy density of ternary lithium batteries can reach 300Wh/kg, lithium iron phosphate batteries can reach around 180 Wh/kg, and the theoretical ceiling of sodium battery energy density is around 200 Wh/kg, but current technology is generally between 90-140Wh /kg; in terms of cycle life, lithium-ion batteries can reach 3000+ times, while sodium-ion batteries can reach 2000+ times, which is only better than lead-acid batteries.

Nowadays, scientific research institutions have not yet solved the problems of low energy density and low cycle times of sodium-ion batteries.

On the other hand, sodium-ion batteries have not yet formed a unified morphological consensus, causing difficulties in mass production. Different technical routes will use different positive and negative materials, resulting in different voltage platforms. Automobile manufacturers must choose multiple types of inverters to adapt and develop more complex power management systems.

Currently, most hard carbon is used in the negative electrode of sodium-ion batteries. Its structure has large crystal distance and many voids, making it very difficult to coat and dry. All the problems encountered in the negative electrode of lithium-ion batteries will be further amplified in the field of sodium-ion batteries.

Therefore, there is still a long way to go before sodium-ion batteries can be mass-produced on a large scale. Just like Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, once said that sodium-ion batteries require collective efforts by the industry to build a complete supply chain, and there are still many difficulties that need to be overcome, just like Tesla's 4680 lithium battery.

03

Industrialization may take 2 to 3 years

However, the temporary disappointment in the passenger car market does not mean that the industrialization of sodium batteries has been hindered. This year, sodium-ion batteries are being used faster in scenarios that require relatively low energy density, such as two-wheeled electric vehicles and special vehicles.

The reason is that the energy storage density of sodium-ion batteries is three times that of lead-acid batteries, which can effectively improve the endurance of sodium-ion batteries. In addition, sodium-ion batteries are not only smaller in size but also much lighter in weight than lead-acid batteries. Sodium-ion batteries may completely replace lead-acid batteries and become standard equipment for two-wheel electric vehicles.

In addition, energy storage is also an important scenario for replacing lead-acid batteries with sodium electricity. The communication energy storage battery backup cycle requirement is 2,000 times, and the magnification rate is generally 0.5C, which requires higher battery cost and safety. Lead-acid battery products pollute the environment, are bulky and have low energy density, and cannot meet the application needs of new generation communication technologies such as 5G base stations and pico base stations. Therefore, sodium batteries have greater potential to replace communication lead-acid batteries.

Nowadays, both traditional lithium battery manufacturers and emerging battery manufacturers are increasing their layout. According to statistics from the High-tech Industrial Research Institute, there are currently more than 35 sodium-ion battery companies in the pilot stage, and more than 50 others are in the laboratory stage.

However, from the perspective of the domestic market, the current supporting sodium battery industry chain is not yet mature and is still in the early stages of development. Even companies such as CATL, Veken Technology, Funeng Technology, etc., although they have clear production capacity plans, are only in the early stages of mass production layout; companies such as Guoxuan High-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Xinwangda and other companies are more It is in the research and development and technology reserve stage.

Li Shujun, general manager of Zhongke Haina, said bluntly, "The sodium power industry is far from completing the transition from 0 to 1. It will still take 3 to 5 years to reach the 100 GWh era."

In general, sodium-ion batteries are a very potential energy storage technology and have great development prospects. In the future, with the continuous development of technology and the promotion of applications, it may be possible to truly realize the first year of mass production.