Can the EU has its own ‘Defense Union’ if Trump is re-elected and pull out of NATO?

If Trump is actually re-elected in the United States, he could pull out of NATO (even if only after the approval of the Senate or the Congress). He has already even suggested Putin to attack a NATO country, as he will not defend who doesn’t pay he said (even if the threshold of 2% GDP spent in defense, is not an obligation of the allies in some treaty). Will this mean the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? Not at all, as NATO has 31 members (soon 32 with Sweden) and dozens of partners around the world, even if the US is the biggest protector of the Alliance being the world superpower. But it could mean something else. It could represents the first push for the EU to really come together and start its ‘Defence Union’ after the economic union and political one, in order for the EU to defend itself independently against potential threats to its security, while its alliance with the US remains in force. The real game changer here is to go from the current simple EU ‘Security and Defense Policy’ with a small EU Defense Fund, to a European real Defense strategy and Army, not only as a concept of ‘Strategic Autonomy’. The EU has collective military spending about triple Russia’s and an economy many times its size. The problem is that the EU needs political will for this decision making. And has to be fast.

As a recent Economist article actually argued, ‘Europe must hurry to defend itself against Russia’, and as a Politico one said, probably 'Donald Trump just did Europe a favor.'

Just as a brief historic digression, the EU created its European Defense Agency (EDA) in 2004, with the goal to facilitate defense integration between member states, later within the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), created in 2009 for defence and crisis management missions. The CSDP has actually the possibility to deploy military or civilian missions, in accordance with the principles of UN Charter, lead by EU forces composed by member states armed forces. The CSDP has a Permament Structured Cooperation (PESCO) that is sometimes referred to as the European Defense Union (EDU), given its possible development in a EU defense arm. More recently, in 2016, the concept of ‘Strategic Autonomy’ became part of the European Union Global Strategy doctrine, to improve the defense capabilities of the EU, including the setting up of a European Defence Fund created in 2017, with a current budget of 13B Euros between 2021-2027, to finance multinational defense projects.

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But these are just embrionic tools. What we need is a real structured European Defense Union, to deal with the new ‘World Dis-order’. And actually, if the EU were to feel a heightened need for security and defense autonomy, due to shifts in the transatlantic relationship if Trump is elected, it could accelerate efforts towards that. This could involve increased cooperation among EU member states in areas such as defense spending, joint military operations, and the development of a common defense strategy.

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This is a urgent matter not for Trump, but because in the last 2 years we had the full blown of kinetic warfare in the new Eurasian wars, after the last ones in WWII, by the last Eurasian empires (Russian and Iranian) with the Putin attack on Ukraine in 2022 and the Iranian proxies attacks on Israel, US bases in the region, and the international trade in the Red Sea at the end of 2023. But the hybrid warfare from the two revisionist states started already 10 years ago, with Putin irregular warfare and invasion of Crimea and meddling in Western democracies, and with Iranian first cyber attacks on the West.?How the West responded to the kinetic escalation not having won the hybrid attacks? United (both NATO supporting Ukraine, and the 'coalition of the willings' against Iranian backed militias) but not yet clear on a long term 'Grand strategy' on how to defeat, not contain anymore, the two enemies of the post WWII liberal order. Containment is for ‘Cold wars’, like the one it seems to be with China. Hot ones are either won or lost, there are no middle ways, as the ‘Science of politics’ tell us since 3,000 years. Our rivals chose to attack, to become enemies, they choose wars over peaceful resolution of conflicts and diplomatic cohabitation, after 20 years of Western attempt since the end of the Cold War.?Now it’s up to us in Europe to decide to come together to win these attacks with a European Defense Union, investing all it needs to do so (meaning much more than the 2% of GDP suggested by NATO), or keep doing ‘Coalitions of the willing’, with the usual leadership of the US and UK. If Trump will be reelected and will pull out of NATO this issue will be an even more urgent matter.

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But the EU Defense Union will not be enough if Europe doesn’t develop also a Grand Strategy for the long term to defend itself not only from military attacks but from hybrid ones, given that the hybrid warfare from Russia, Iran, and possibly China in future will increase. The Grand strategy has to be therefore complex, not only kinetic but with a whole of government approach with the so called DIME tools: Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economy. Starting from the last one, the Economic attacks that we received in Europe (first of all in the energy sector) have to be counterattacked with new decupling from the autocratic regimes, increasing friend-shoring and near-shoring, not just using small sanctions which are almost useless in globalized times.?The Military-kinetic wars are already going on, mostly with proxy wars, in Eastern Europe and West Asia. Regarding Information the warfare has to be also an offensive one, it cannot be only defensive otherwise will be lost, as we can see with the attempt of manipulation of realities, supported by external enemies, to conquer hearts and minds in our countries. Diplomacy has to be also relying in some form of ‘Wolf Warrior Diplomacy’ like China is doing since a while, with compellence to create deterrence, meaning threatening retaliation to coerce another state into action, because to be passive and reactive instead of proactive is always the path to defeat. Finally Technology revolution can help this decade if the West win the competition with Russia and China especially in AI, but will not be enough.

What the EU will need is a ‘Political Will’ to strengthen and deepen its integration. The political processes are always long, and the European consensus decision making takes time, especially in peace times. But peace times are never eternal. When war times come first of all you need to create a defense. And the European Defense Union is long overdue.