Can there be an end in the War Israel-Gaza?

Can there be an end in the War between Israel and Gaza?

Going into the 42nd day of the war, the possibility for an end to the war is very dim. ?There is currently only talk about the release that some 50 hostages would be released (of the some 240 in total), that Hamas holds. Thorough Qatari negotiators, in exchange for a 3 day cease fire and the release of some Palestinian women and children that were imprisoned and more humanitarian aid allowed to pass thorough, but this is not official.

?Hamas claims that the Israeli bombing and shelling campaign has killed already some hostages, Israel has confirmed a couple of them, but most likely Hamas will secure the hostages until the very end, this because is the last key card they hold. Supposedly they are held on the Northern part of Gaza and in the South, but this is not clear yet.? There were known to be tunnel connections to Egypt from the Southern Part of Gaza but Egypt claims these have been destroyed. As for the Northern part, tunnels connecting Lebanon are not known to date.

Israel is not too keen on a cease fire because they claim it will only allow Hamas to regroup and reorganize its forces, but with the hostage of a large group, this could come thorough. The war would go forth anyway after this event.

The advance of the Israeli army in Northern Gaza has been slow and methodical, giving time to the Palestinians civilians to evacuate and also allow fewer casualties in the Palestinian civilians, evading the heavily populated areas.

Tanks and armored vehicles generally advance in combination with the infantry, beforehand previous targets are softened or destroyed by the artillery and ?the Air Force.

Hamas is using the civilian palestitinian? people as human shields, but this is not new. For example The PLO (Palestinian Liberation Front, Yasser Arafat) did this in the 1982 war in Lebanon and Again Hezbollah in 2006 also in Lebanon.

What is new is the use of Hamas of? Hospitals and ambulances for military purposes, that now have been considered as military objectives due to the fact that many have been, such has harboring weapons and other war materials, which is a violation of international laws. Problem is it makes them legitimate targets.

This is different war. It is actually a war that is being fought in the tunnels, where the majority of the Hamas fighters hide and where they supposedly have the hostages. Special Israeli brigades (like the Golani Brigade) that are trained for this type of war are in charge of these operations. Not clear if the quantity of Special Forces needed by Israel for this type of operation are enough. This is a special type of soldier that is needed.

It reminds of the Vietnam War ?era and the tunnel war fought in the Cu Chi area, were the US developed a special group called “the tunnel rats” to fight on tunnels, only armed with a pistol and a lantern, with a rope attached to the waist.

Combat in the tunnels is extremely complicated and costly, because the enemy can put all sorts of booby traps, set ambushes, and knows the terrain very well. Also the technological advantage is diminished. Will certainly be a complex, costly and slow war.

Hamas claims that it has only in Northern Gaza some supposed 500 kms of tunnels, with 1.300 tunnels. Israel claims that it has effectively destroyed some 130 tunnels.? Supplies for Hamas are thought to last 90 days. This may be exaggerated due to the difficulty of storing water, munitions, rockets and supplies for this period for a considerable amount of fighters. There is also need for fresh air.

Some 48 Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat, and estimates vary for the Hamas paramilitary fighters, with figures that range to 1500 to 3000, but there are no official numbers, and anyway these change daily. Hamas was supposed to have at the start of the war some 20.000 men. ?Civilian Palestinian dead count in over 11.200 and Israeli Civilians and Military over 1.400, these on the first day of the war? of October 7th

Although Hamas seems to have struck some tanks and armored vehicles with the antitank weapons, like the RPGS (Rocket Propelled Grenades) they have , heavy armor ?and other anti-tank capabilities prevent casualties in the ?Israeli tanks (like the Merkava tank IV) and personnel carriers.

This means that a rocket hit does not mean necessarily that the tank is out of combat and that its crew are casualties. A tank can be repaired and the crew is assigned to another tank.

International pressure is mounting on Israel, especially from neighboring countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other important Arab Nations. ?This form of collective punishment or maybe excessive use of deadly force as some call, on regards to the Palestinian casualties is the major issue.

The pressure up to now? ?has been mostly diplomatic rhetoric, with no active actions taken, but of course it could change in the future.

Hezbollah in Lebanon has also threatened to take full military action, but to date only sporadic actions have been executed. Does not seem that they are too eager to join the fight, contrary to that was expected of them by the Palestinians and Hamas. Not only they have to face Israel but also planes for the US two carrier groups sent to the area.

China and Russia don’t seem to have interest in a war escalation, also Iran, Europe and the US., because it would be bad for the oil & gas business. No one wants to disrupt the supply chain regarding the Oil supply, and the price has actually decreased to $us. 80 per barrel. And also Natural Gas deals that are currently going on. Only ones that can profit from more war are the Military industries.

In the case of the US, does not seem that President Biden and his cabinet do not have much influence over Israel, given the fact that Congress supports Israel. It was a different time in the Yom Kippur war 1973 when President Nixon forced the Israelis to retire from the Sinai in Egypt, due to the fact that the Russians were going to intervene.

So, the possibility of the war escalating is low, but it is still there. ?There are any unexpected variables on this equation.

In the case of Russia, it interesting to take note that this war has taken the priority in the Russian/Ukraine War, with the US/Europe aid campaign, and that military equipment and money will be diverted to help Israel.

Ukraine will have probably deal some type of deal to end the war with Russia, given the fact that the actual front has become stagnated, and Ukraine is seriously lacking enough manpower to send to the front. Too many casualties that cannot be replaced. Only option are mercenaries but these are costly and the budget is reducing. So it is a win for Russia.

In a final Balance of the war, we can see that Hamas has achieved important goals, like uniting the Arab world in the Palestinian cause (which had been forgotten) and ending the possibility fo+r now? of future negotiations of Israel with the Arab World (such as the one with Saudi Arabia), and effectively ceasing the existing peace in the region. Also, Israel is losing the Public Relations war.

The problem is that Hamas resorted to barbaric and brutal methods, seen only before to have been used by ISIS, and for this reason they will be held accountable by Israel and by the majority of the world, excepting a couple of countries. These actions did give however ample international coverage. A coverage that was not achieved by Hezbollah in its +30 year conflicts with Israel.

So at this stage, it does not seem that Hamas will lay down arms and deliver the hostages, so the war will continue with its deadly toll, especially for Palestinian civilians. Only the future reactions of the Arab Countries in the region and the Superpowers will either end this war or escalate it.

J. Barroso –Consultant -([email protected])- @pepebarroso