Can the effect of surprise lead to long-term change in making sustainability a new habit?

Reflections on "The 60% Potential" Seminar: A New Perspective on Sustainability

Last week, I attended a thought-provoking seminar led by Jan Pechmann and Prof. Dr. Johanna Gollnhofer on their recent book, The 60% Potential. Over recent years, Pechmann has centered his work around the idea that marketers bear a unique responsibility to shift societal thinking around sustainability. His book zeroes in on how we can finally appeal to the masses on this critical issue. Although awareness of sustainability may be high on a cognitive level, it often fails to translate into consistent action due to its association with renunciation, higher costs, uncertainty, and disruptive change.

As many who know me in business settings would tell you, I have a reputation for voicing my thoughts candidly—even if I occasionally surprise myself by sparking intense discussion. When asked what was missing in the sustainability approach, I proposed that the missing ingredient for driving behavior change toward a sustainable future might be an element of surprise. After receiving some messages from colleagues and seeing a follow-up post by Pechmann, I felt compelled to dig deeper into how a “surprise momentum” might serve as a foundation for a long-term behavior change strategy.

Why Most Sustainability Campaigns Struggle to Drive Change

If, like me, you’re fascinated by cognitive science, you’ve probably come across BJ Fogg, PhD Behavior Model. Fogg, a leading figure in the field, proposes that behavior change only happens when three factors align at the same time: Motivation, Ability, and Prompt.

1. Motivation: This is the desire to perform a behavior, driven by motivators like pleasure/pain, hope/fear, or social acceptance/rejection.
2. Ability: This relates to how easy it is to perform the behavior. If it’s too challenging, people won’t do it—even if motivated. Fogg identifies six simplicity factors that make behaviors easier to perform:
3. Prompt: This is the trigger that spurs action at the right moment. Without a prompt, people likely won’t act—even if they’re motivated and capable.

While most marketing campaigns focus on prompts, sustainability efforts tend to rely heavily on negative motivators like fear or guilt. When it comes to “ability,” the journey is often challenging: sustainable choices frequently require more time, cost more, demand extra mental effort, or deviate significantly from established routines. This combination tends to lead to one-off actions rather than lasting change.

The Power of Surprise: A New Approach to Sustainability

Why could the element of surprise be so impactful in encouraging long-term sustainable behavior? Here’s a personal example that helped me understand its potential.

Having lived in places where water scarcity is a regular issue, I’m no stranger to hotel signs urging me to reuse towels and reduce water use. Despite my awareness, I’ve often ignored these prompts, feeling they disrupt my routine or seem like just another mandate. But at a recent hotel stay, I was asked upfront if I wanted daily room cleaning for my two-day visit. Since I declined—mainly to avoid interruptions—I was unexpectedly rewarded with a free mini-bar item and a note thanking me for reducing my CO? footprint by 15%.

This small surprise did two things: it provided an immediate positive experience and framed my behavior as valuable and impactful. My brain recorded it as a “happy moment” associated with both gratitude and positive action. Since it required minimal effort on my part, it covered almost all aspects of Fogg’s “Ability” model (money, time, physical and mental effort, and social deviance). When I stayed at another hotel, I replicated this action automatically without prompting.

Can Surprise Be a Core Part of a Marketing Strategy?

While integrating surprise into marketing is not a silver bullet, a well-crafted sustainability strategy that includes cognitive science principles and the “surprise effect” could be highly effective. Here’s why:

1. Mainstream Appeal: Positive reinforcement is more likely to reach the mainstream than fear-based messaging, as it creates uplifting associations.
2. Avoiding Greenwashing: Thoughtful, authentic surprise elements can steer brands away from the risk of perceived greenwashing.
3. Boosting Word-of-Mouth: Surprise creates memorable experiences that people want to share, expanding visibility from niche audiences to the broader public.

Could cognitive science and surprise be the basis for a new strategy? Let’s discuss your thoughts and experiences on what could make this approach truly transformative.